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Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Sonny Daze, Jul 28, 2017.
Next week? End of August? Haven't seen this subject brought up. Curious what people think.
Hi. It depends on a few factors such as the number of employee reservations in California (4,395 people), whether SolarCity employees will get priority or not (they won't), the percentage of employees who will select the RWD version (46.6%) and the production ramp up speed (100 units in August, 1620 units in September).
I have looked into all these factors and I'm estimating that first non-employee cars will be delivered on 12th October 2017. You can see this date in the Estimator by selecting California, Tesla owner, and Model 3 55 or 75. I will update the calculations when there is new information.
Since they're going to be going to employees and they will want to get any bugs fixed as soon as possible, I would think that they'll probably be delivering them as soon as they come off the line. We probably won't be seeing any trucks with them going out to showrooms for a couple months though, unless they're making them much faster than Elon last projected. Even if they only sent two to each showroom for display/test drives, that would be more than all the cars they were projecting for august.
I wouldn't even be so sure that 30 is the exact number of cars they've produced. Musk said they would deliver 30, but perhaps that was a low benchmark, or the highest number they wanted to include in the party. The delivery of extras could begin immediately after.
Every day once they ramp up. What do you think this is, their first rodeo?
Elon said they produced 50 in July, so exponentially growing to 20,000 in December is going to be quite a feat, but I am excited to see them try! The more they build, test and debug, the better the final production models will be for all of us!
Wonder when they will start showing up in showrooms?
I put in my info to request a test drive Friday night, just in case they would let me schedule a model 3 drive. I couldn't, but then I got a call from Tesla the next day and the guy said they should start to be available for test drives by November or December.
Well they made ~50 Model 3s in ~20 days. So ~2.5 cars/day.
So I would think there will be a steady drizzle of Model 3s getting delivered to employees during all of August.
I still think they will be producing faster than the latest projections. One of the vins on a test drive video I saw was in the 300s. Whether they will be delivered that quickly is another question, since I also suspect they will time it so their 200,000th US delivery is in the first week of January.
I think the VINs began with the release candidate cars, the first one off the line that went to Elon had a VIN of like 317
I think that may be wrong. They talked about his car as SN1.
I think maybe they did some RCs in the 300+ range to start, and then circled back and started over at 1 for the production cars.
Some of the key cards shown in test drives had Vin's in the double digits. I think I saw 014.
One of them was 306.
I don't think you can RESTART VINs, they are Vehicle Identification Numbers. Sure there are serial numbers, you could say the first one off the line is Serial Number 1, but the VINs have to be unique on ALL cars ever built and have to contain specific information about their manufacture.
What I mean is that they could have taken a chunk out of the forward sequence.
Like doing cars in this sequence:
1-299 (First Deliveries)
400-999999 Regular production.
Sure, they can't reuse a VIN, but I don't think there is a rule that they come out in exact sequential order.
And we have seen proof that the cars being delivered last Friday were starting from single digits.
I think they were giving test rides in RCs, thus the higher VINs seen there.
Everyone knows we've got 30 production cars on the road. Are we expecting them to trickle out one by one? Another "mass" delivery event - this time non-televised of course?
Do we know of any VIN's higher than the 30 from July 28th?
My guess would be that the initial deliveries were to create some fanfare and publicity, and that additional deliveries will be done by service centers when the cars are ready (i.e., delivered and prepped).
I also wonder how much of those 30 deliveries were a rev 0.99 so that any more kinks could be worked out before release into the Wild. They were all to employees.
It took almost three months between the initial delivery event of the Model X and when actual deliveries started. I doubt it will take that long with the Model 3 though as they plan to ramp up to much larger numbers.
I agree that these were most likely a 0.99 revision and that they want to make sure everything is correct before they build a bunch more of them. It is also possible that they are building store demo cars right now which would also be a good way to test the production without getting them in actual customer's hands.
They also still have to build a large number (several thousand?) for all their employees who ordered one (Tesla, SpaceX and SolarCity)
My worthless guess is that we will see more deliveries near the end of Q3.