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How soon will the next Model 3 be delivered?

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Hi. It depends on a few factors such as the number of employee reservations in California (4,395 people), whether SolarCity employees will get priority or not (they won't), the percentage of employees who will select the RWD version (46.6%) and the production ramp up speed (100 units in August, 1620 units in September).

I have looked into all these factors and I'm estimating that first non-employee cars will be delivered on 12th October 2017. You can see this date in the Estimator by selecting California, Tesla owner, and Model 3 55 or 75. I will update the calculations when there is new information.
 
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Since they're going to be going to employees and they will want to get any bugs fixed as soon as possible, I would think that they'll probably be delivering them as soon as they come off the line. We probably won't be seeing any trucks with them going out to showrooms for a couple months though, unless they're making them much faster than Elon last projected. Even if they only sent two to each showroom for display/test drives, that would be more than all the cars they were projecting for august.
 
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Elon said they produced 50 in July, so exponentially growing to 20,000 in December is going to be quite a feat, but I am excited to see them try! The more they build, test and debug, the better the final production models will be for all of us!
 
Well they made ~50 Model 3s in ~20 days. So ~2.5 cars/day.

So I would think there will be a steady drizzle of Model 3s getting delivered to employees during all of August.

I still think they will be producing faster than the latest projections. One of the vins on a test drive video I saw was in the 300s. Whether they will be delivered that quickly is another question, since I also suspect they will time it so their 200,000th US delivery is in the first week of January.
 
I don't think you can RESTART VINs, they are Vehicle Identification Numbers. Sure there are serial numbers, you could say the first one off the line is Serial Number 1, but the VINs have to be unique on ALL cars ever built and have to contain specific information about their manufacture.

-Randy
 
What I mean is that they could have taken a chunk out of the forward sequence.
Like doing cars in this sequence:
300-399 (RCs)
1-299 (First Deliveries)
400-999999 Regular production.

Sure, they can't reuse a VIN, but I don't think there is a rule that they come out in exact sequential order.


And we have seen proof that the cars being delivered last Friday were starting from single digits.


I think they were giving test rides in RCs, thus the higher VINs seen there.
 
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It took almost three months between the initial delivery event of the Model X and when actual deliveries started. I doubt it will take that long with the Model 3 though as they plan to ramp up to much larger numbers.

I agree that these were most likely a 0.99 revision and that they want to make sure everything is correct before they build a bunch more of them. It is also possible that they are building store demo cars right now which would also be a good way to test the production without getting them in actual customer's hands.

They also still have to build a large number (several thousand?) for all their employees who ordered one (Tesla, SpaceX and SolarCity)

My worthless guess is that we will see more deliveries near the end of Q3.
 
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