How soon will the next Model 3 be delivered?

[Ulmo]

I thought the VIN decoder document showed specific codes for RC's that are different than production. P is for Production, so I suppose all the RC's don't have a P in them.

Here's one I found here:

Decoding Tesla Model S VINs

Says:

Digit 12, Production Series:
A = Alpha Prototype
B = Beta Prototype
R = Release Candidate Vehicle
P = Production Vehicle
S = Signature Series Vehicle
F = Founder Series Vehicle
0-9 = Production Vehicle (replaces P to allow 6 digit sequence numbers)

I presume they can do all sorts of letters in the first digits of the eventual huge numbers of digits they'll be using in production in the future.

We can assume Model 3 only uses A, B, R, and P0-9. They'll probably just leave out P, leaving only A, B, R, and 0-9.

I wonder what they'll do for years in which they make more than 6 digits worth (more than 999,999); perhaps just start using random letters in the high slot to indicate 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, so on.

 

[MP3Mike]

I thought the VIN decoder document showed specific codes for RC's that are different than production. P is for Production, so I suppose all the RC's don't have a P in them.

Here's one I found here:

Decoding Tesla Model S VINs

That is true for the Model S, but the Model 3 VIN document didn't list any of those options.

Here's how you decode the Tesla Model 3 VIN

 

[TEG]

The above was for Model S... It appears that they are doing Model 3 differently.

You may recall all the talk of accelerating deliveries, and streamlining the test process.
You can question if initial quality may suffer, but it seems they are determined to skip some steps to get cars out there ASAP.

Roadster used yet another scheme for marking different series (EPs/VPs/Founders/Signature/Production/etc.) so I wouldn't expect the Model S VIN document to guarantee what Model 3 will do.
I think we have already seen that they are skipping letter codes and just making different types of cars in different number ranges.

(Edit: MP3Mike beat me to it... "Got Ninjaed")

 

[Ulmo]

Ah. Weird. Ok. It actually seems more complicated to me in the new way described for Model 3; S and X were simpler. Oh well!

 

[Mr. Watts]

Any updates on if Tesla has been able to keep up with their estimated production ramp?

 

[jhs_7645]

(crickets) -- guess that's your answer

 

[TEG]

Random wild guesses:

#1: Maybe they finished using up that original order of parts to build ~300 cars, and are waiting for the next round of parts from suppliers?
#2: Maybe they found something in the thousands of supplier provided parts that could be improved, so they are waiting to get that updated?
#3: Maybe they are stamping out lots of body panels in advance getting ready to make more Model 3 once the suppliers provide all the parts?
#4: Maybe the gigafactory is cranking out cells and they are making battery packs and stockpiling them getting ready for when the other parts are ready?

If feels like there is a lull as I haven't seen more tweets about ordering, or new license plates showing in online photos.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

If feels like there is a lull as I haven't seen more tweets about ordering, or new license plates showing in online photos.

I'm expecting a replay of the Model S launch.

After the first 6 deliveries of Model S in Summer of 2012, late 2012 and early 2013 were filled with anxious waiting and VIN watching.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'm expecting a replay of the Model S launch.

After the first 6 deliveries of Model S in Summer of 2012, late 2012 and early 2013 were filled with anxious waiting and VIN watching.

And Model X launch for that matter. It took about 5 months after the "launch" of Model X deliveries for any significant volume to occur.

 

[Dynastar]

Since we have delivery estimates starting in October if there's that much of delay Tesla will miss their production targets badly.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

And Model X launch for that matter. It took about 5 months after the "launch" of Model X deliveries for any significant volume to occur.

I remember the Model X ramp as being much more painful than the Model S ramp.

Model S steadily improved in volume and quality over time. Model X seemed to go in and out of production over a period of months. The initial quality was worse too, in terms of the number of problems those early deliveries suffered.

 

[TEG]

So far:

 

[Cosmacelf]

So far:
View attachment 243927

This data comes from? And how many Model 3s delivered so far?

 

[RubberToe]

The investor roundtable thread has a link to the tesla show twitter feed showing 9 new Model 3's about to be delivered...

The Tesla Show on Twitter

 

[Ulmo]

This data comes from? And how many Model 3s delivered so far?

I'm not sure asking is prudent.

 

[RubberToe]

I'm not sure asking is prudent.

Dude, this is the Internet! Hello!

RT

 

[RubberToe]

The worst part of that map is that it shows what a backwater LA is WRT our more Metropolitan areas.

You would think at least one would have appeared at SpaceX in Hawthorne.

RT

 

[Ken7]

Random wild guesses:

#1: Maybe they finished using up that original order of parts to build ~300 cars, and are waiting for the next round of parts from suppliers?
#2: Maybe they found something in the thousands of supplier provided parts that could be improved, so they are waiting to get that updated?
#3: Maybe they are stamping out lots of body panels in advance getting ready to make more Model 3 once the suppliers provide all the parts?
#4: Maybe the gigafactory is cranking out cells and they are making battery packs and stockpiling them getting ready for when the other parts are ready?

It feels like there is a lull as I haven't seen more tweets about ordering, or new license plates showing in online photos.

I wonder if that's cause for concern?

 

[Ulmo]

I wonder if that's cause for concern?

The initial owners probably have a lot of good feedback that keeps the ramp-up employees well employed. I expect this to be an accelerated version of the Model X ramp-up: spurts of vehicles, then pause, check what happened, fix, and repeat (another spurt). Each spurt will be sized appropriately. Eventually, it will get larger and larger (the sample sizes get too small to find errors after a while).

 

[dsvick]

I wonder if that's cause for concern?

Why? Not everyone tweets, facebooks, or posts everything in their lives. It's entirely likely that new cars being delivered are not being posted on line because their owners aren't posting about them.