HELP! Many years ago I worked on a valuation model for TSLA the car company, I made some basic assumptions about what the future could hold and came up with my own reasonable future value per share. This has allowed me to sit tight at times and not panic sell. I would like to work on a new model that encompasses all the areas TSLA has to provide income: Solar, autos (this includes the unknowns of the truck), the Big Rig Truck, and autonomous taxi service, and I guess energy storage. I want to make a lot of assumptions, would like input here for WHAT to assume. What I did for cars was look at what the worldwide market was, guessed that they could eventually capture 10% of the market, figure on profit per car given what they said the profit would be, and figure how how this would be reflected in the share price given some expected P/E figures. I was quite bullish and did not give the company enough time to execute, but subtracted 20% off the value per year going backwards. My assumptions, or things I want to figure out. Cars: Is 10% of the addressable market reasonable and when could it happen? What confidence level is reasonable to have in the above? What percent profit could be expected per vehicle at scale? I really have high confidence in cars. p[erhaps 100% but I should tone that back. Big rig trucks: I think I see that they might sell 40,000 trucks a month in the US? US Heavy Truck Sales Other sources suggest lower amounts. 10% of the market? When? What is reasonable? What confidence level? % profit? I would run figuring on 10% of the market, but this would take a while, likely a dedicated factory to get anywhere near 4,000 trucks a month. If autopilot really works or if one driver could control many loads this would really go gangbusters. I think it would take a minimum of 5 years to get a 10% factory market going... I have moderate confidence this could happen, but tough to know without a product on the market yet. Solar: I am not that bullish on this for TSLA. Not available where I live, TSLA does not serve locally Product not compelling to knowledgeable consumers, similar for less. Integration and cross selling keys, what differentiates? It is bullish that california 2020 requiring solar on new construction. Addressable CA market? 120,000 starts a year? 10% of market? I dont live there, please share if you live there and have insight into the market. I think sales will be low for a while. 10% of a required CA market is only 12,000 systems a year @ maybe $20,000 per system. LOW confidence Autonomous taxis, Transportation as service (TAS) US market is 26B per year: Taxi & Limousine Services in the US - Market Size | IBISWorld I got no clue on this one. TSLA could capture a lot of the market if they get the product right, truth is they could chage the entire face of transportation wherein much fewer people would need cars. PRODUCT DEPENDENT I assume you can't use current data and capture a percent of the market because if it works, IT CHANGES everything. Uber use is ubiquitous with the youth of the day, many don't care for muscle cars or driving. Could shift the paradigm totally. Perhaps need to look at how many miles a person needs for transportation needs each year. The US has 327M people. Perhaps 210M licensed drivers: Office of Highway Policy Information - Policy | Federal Highway Administration My mind is blown away considering the ramifications of valuing self driving cars and TAS Thank you for sharing any of your thoughts on this as I work on a valuation model.