How to order model S for March 1st delivery?

[SpudLime]

Seriously don't waste your money on FSD. Your couple of grand isn't going to make the slightest bit of difference to its development and if you have been paying attention to the current state of EAP, you will realise that FSD is a million miles away from any sort of reality. At best you might get some token gesture features like traffic light recognition. But it's your cash to burn. Plenty of others have been suckered into it over the last few years!

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This might not be true anymore as the latest earnings call mentioned the faster chip. Many are speculating that the FSD purchase will get you the free swap when it comes out next year.. FFT

 

[WannabeOwner]

if you have been paying attention to the current state of EAP, you will realise that FSD is a million miles away from any sort of reality.

You may be right, but my expectation is that the AI stuff will improve exponentially and, if that;s right, its arrival will catch out us humans - given that we don't "get" exponential very well

Surcharge to buy later, its already gone up, I suspect it will go up more shortly before it actually arrives (although at the first price increase existing sales were retrospectively pegged at the original upgrade price)
Added onto Finance package, and allowing for only say 50% resale value
Maybe not that dear?

But, yeah, as always "if you don't need it then you don't need it"

 

[DJP31]

But, yeah, as always "if you don't need it then you don't need it"

I didn’t think I needed an iPad until Apple invented it

 

[WannabeOwner]

AutoPilot
CruiseControl
CentralLocking
ElectricWindows
SelfCancelling turn signals
CarStero
CarRadio
Stalks instead of a floor-switch for Dip/Beam
Starter motor instead of a crank handle

That's as far back as I go ... "horse" was a bit before my time

 

[culverwood]

I find even autopilot more stressful than driving the car myself on busy UK motorways.

I ordered mine in October 16 for delivery March 17 and though it arrived before the end of the month it was tight. I would order September for February delivery and hold registration till new plates if that is what you are after.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I find even autopilot more stressful than driving the car myself on busy UK motorways.

Interesting. On motorways (and anything bumper-to-bumper stop-start anywhere else) I stick AP on and leave the car too it, my role that of lookout and supervisor if needed - like married life, that isn't often ...

 

[culverwood]

I suspect it is the narrowness of lanes in the UK compared to the USA which means that distances to lorries in the adjacent lane are sometimes a little too close for me. Very slow stop start it works a treat.

 

[DJP31]

Very slow stop start it works a treat.

I still don't think it's as good as me . I find it rather fierce to accelerate and a tad harsh on the brake.

 

[MarkJ]

I think it will be a long time before AP or FSD will be as good as a fully awake, fully aware, competent driver. But if you drive on the roads you'll have noticed that description doesn't apply to a significant minority of drivers.

 

[WannabeOwner]

you'll have noticed that description doesn't apply to a significant minority of drivers

Doesn't apply me to me 100% of the time either... and I'm a brilliant driver

I don't care if ME or AP reacts to a problem, the two of us are better than me on my own. In part because driving with AP is much less tiring, so I am more alert towards the end of a long journey.

 

[Peteski]

You may be right, but my expectation is that the AI stuff will improve exponentially and, if that;s right, its arrival will catch out us humans - given that we don't "get" exponential very well

Not seen any evidence of exponential FSD development yet. Quite the opposite in fact! All we can agree on is that EAP is not even remotely close at present and in itself has literally crawled forward in development over the last few years. True FSD represents a gigantic step forward (hard to overstate the magnitude) and that does not appear close to reality IMHO. I'll buy it when I can try it for myself, possibly on my next Tesla in 4 years time, but I wouldn't bet on that either!

 

[S777]

I ordered mine in October 16 for delivery March 17 and though it arrived before the end of the month it was tight. I would order September for February delivery and hold registration till new plates if that is what you are after.

For what it's worth, I ordered in July with the intention of getting my car in September 1st on a 68 plate. When I ordered they were quoting delivery in August. I said I wanted it on the new plate and was told in no uncertain terms that if it turned up in August I'd have to take it in August on an 18 plate. So I opted for September and now I'm being told it might not be with me until October.

It's definitely disappointing to have so little control but there you go

 

[arg]

While I probably wouldn't pay for FSD if I was ordering today, I don't think you can dismiss it out of hand: it's clearly a gamble, but the trade-offs keep changing and are different for each person's situation.

Plainly, someone who bought at launch (nearly 2 years ago) and is planning on selling the car at 2 years old will have done very badly out of it: they will have had no benefit themselves and probably see little uplift in resale value.

However, it's expected that we will shortly see some features that are conditional on the FSD option, even if they aren't anything like "Full" SD. At that point, the FSD option transforms from being a pure lottery ticket into an overpriced feature (that each person will have their own view of the value of) plus the outstanding lottery ticket. You can imagine that the split of features into FSD vs "autopilot convenience" will be arbitrarily done so as to put a 'must have' into FSD.

So the person who bought at launch and sells at 3 years will have got a tiny bit of value themselves, plus by then the resale value of the FSD option will have ticked up a bit - especially as the FSD option on new cars has got more expensive.

People buying now have to factor in the probability of something really good coming out of FSD within the time that they plan on owning the car and what's likely to happen to the gap between price at purchase time vs price to activate after purchase (bearing in mind that the good stuff is almost certainly going to need the processor board replaced when Tesla's new chip is finished - expected to be FoC for people who've already bought, but a reason for the upgrade price to be inflated). There's also the question of how you finance the car - buying on PCP or similar where you end up paying a fixed proportion of the option cost, vs buying outright where you pay the full cost and roll the dice on how much value it adds to resale value.

A year ago, I think "definitely not" was good advice. Today, "probably not unless you fancy a punt". In a month's time the answer may be different again (either way).

 

[WannabeOwner]

All we can agree on is that EAP is not even remotely close at present and in itself has literally crawled forward in development over the last few years

I don't know what Tesla's starting point was, or when that was either, but bearing in mind that AP1 was MobileEye up until AP2 was announced, and then the MobileEye split happened, Tesla seem to have put together what is now AP2 in a length of time that has taken everyone else decades. They may have bought some starter-stuff in, and for sure they had plenty of logged data to test it on , but reports I have read (which may not be all sides of the coin) suggest that their DEV progress has been remarkable.

rue FSD represents a gigantic step forward (hard to overstate the magnitude) and that does not appear close to reality IMHO

I read plenty that Tesla is NOT using Shadow mode, or phone-home, nor all that much logging either. But if they are (and even 1% of the fleet, all under NDA such that we would never know) that would be a lot of data.

My instinct is that you are right, but there is enough doubt in my mind that we may both yet be surprised. Lots of talk from other Marques about how close they are getting too - permits being sought for self-driving stuff and so on.

Who would have thought in the early 60's that Kennedy's "We choose to go to the Moon in this decade" speech was the least bit achievable ... along with all the "We choose to do these things ... not because they are easy, but because they are hard" rhetoric.

 

[LoveEV]

competent driver

Guess it really depends on what you mean by competent driver! Have seen so many reckless and driving with phones, typing sms. For me autopilot is a game changer when I use it on the motorway it does 95% of my driving. I take over on roads under the 70mph limit as there is still some work to be done for them. EAP is a long way away but they will get there....they have to

 

[Peteski]

I don't know what Tesla's starting point was, or when that was either, but bearing in mind that AP1 was MobileEye up until AP2 was announced, and then the MobileEye split happened, Tesla seem to have put together what is now AP2 in a length of time that has taken everyone else decades. They may have bought some starter-stuff in, and for sure they had plenty of logged data to test it on , but reports I have read (which may not be all sides of the coin) suggest that their DEV progress has been remarkable.

No doubt the split with MobileEye slowed down the whole program and it's taken a good couple of years to get AP2 to a similar capability. But at the end of the day it's merely a white line follower with a very vague and simplistic idea of its surroundings and how to act appropriately. It's actually great given the limitations, but FSD is a whole different league.

So it really comes down to what functions so called FSD will actually bring to the party for the extra money. Will it still require full hands-on monitoring? Or are we really seriously expected to trust it to drive the car hands-off on anything other than a motorway/d.c?. - which EAP does a pretty convincing job of anyway.

For FSD to be worth paying for it needs to be able to follow nav routes safely in a much more complex environment, which is not going to be a trivial task. IMHO our road network is simply not consistent enough for safe full automation, especially with 99.9% of other traffic still under human control. I'm thinking it will be a good decade or more before FSD becomes a reality or at least close and that will require big money spent on improving road markings and consistency across the country. I just don't see it happening very quickly. EAP is actually a good compromise in automating many of the boring aspects of driving while allowing full control of the fun parts. Anything other than true hands-off FSD is unlikely to be very compelling to me. I'd settle for a more robust EAP, which has improved considerably over the last 6 months.

 

[arg]

So it really comes down to what functions so called FSD will actually bring to the party for the extra money. Will it still require full hands-on monitoring? Or are we really seriously expected to trust it to drive the car hands-off on anything other than a motorway/d.c?. - which EAP does a pretty convincing job of anyway.

If it could advance to the stage that you don't need to monitor it, even in restricted circumstances - motorways only, or even specific mapped motorways only - then that would be a major advance over existing EAP. Of course it is far from what was originally promised, but it would still be worth the price of admission.

To not need monitoring, it would have to guarantee that, once engaged it will carry on and if exiting the conditions it is capable of handling, give you plenty of warning to resume monitoring and come to a safe stop if you don't. How far away they are from that, or even if that is their target, I have no idea.

 

[LoveEV]

If I bought FSD I would expect to be able to fall asleep at the wheel and for the car to take me safely to the next destination without driver interference.

 

[DJP31]

If I bought FSD I would expect to be able to fall asleep at the wheel and for the car to take me safely to the next destination without driver interference.

Depends on definition of next destination. From one motorway service station to another then possibly not long. From your home to the shopping centre then a long time.

 

[Peteski]

If it could advance to the stage that you don't need to monitor it, even in restricted circumstances - motorways only, or even specific mapped motorways only - then that would be a major advance over existing EAP. Of course it is far from what was originally promised, but it would still be worth the price of admission.

To not need monitoring, it would have to guarantee that, once engaged it will carry on and if exiting the conditions it is capable of handling, give you plenty of warning to resume monitoring and come to a safe stop if you don't. How far away they are from that, or even if that is their target, I have no idea.

The big then question is, would you be happy to just sit there and not pay attention while it wafts you along at 70 mph+ down the motorway with all the usual assholes surrounding you? I certainly wouldn't, which is why EAP is such a good compromise i.e. it basically drives itself and your job is to bail it out when it gets it wrong (or end up as another news headline if you don't!). Without the human back-up it's going to kill you sooner or later IMHO. So for me FSD is pretty much dead in the water for the foreseeable future.