How trustworthy is Tesla's predicted "2015, 2016" supercharger map?

[bcsteeve]

The Tesla website has this page: Supercharger | Tesla Motors Canada

I'm sure you're familiar with it. It shows the chargers available now, and in 2015 and 2016. But how accurate do you think this is?

I'm in the upper part of the United States in the area affectionately known as "Canada". I'm over on that left side. As you can see, there aren't many chargers. I noticed they don't have a pin for my town now (and that's true), but they show one there for 2015. One of my biggest reasons for buying the car is to make use of "free" charging. Therefore, one of my biggest hesitations with buying the car is the fact there is no supercharger anywhere near me. Should I expect, based on that map, that there *will* be one this year? Or I should just hope there is? What kind of history do they have coming through with placing them where they say they will?

 

[jerry33]

Expect six months to one year later than planned. Most of this is due to delays in permitting and/or difficulty in negotiating a site contract.

 

[jaguar36]

In general they seem reasonably good about getting most of the sites up around when they say they will. But notice all the wiggle words there, I wouldn't count on a specific site being open when they say it will be, as they frequently run into issues they delay sites by a significant amount. Alot of the PA sites have been on the coming soon map for years now.

Also keep in mind that while the superchargers are indeed free (well included in the price really) they aren't intended for day-to day charging, nor is it particularly practical to do so. They should be factored into your purchasing decision based on trips you need to make, but not on the effect of the cost of charging.

 

[lolachampcar]

It is aspirational and should not be used for travel planning. Do keep in mind this is a private company installing world wide electric vehicle fast charging infrastructure on their own dime.

 

[jbcarioca]

It is aspirational and should not be used for travel planning. Do keep in mind this is a private company installing world wide electric vehicle fast charging infrastructure on their own dime.

True. We all should also be realistic. Superchargers came to reality only in 2012, almost exactly three years ago as I make this post. We have all trained ourselves to expect the impossible from Tesla. That is partly the mystique built up by Elon Musk repeatedly leading people to do impossible things. Now, however, this forum and other places are replete with expectations of continuing impossible achievements as Tesla climbs in production scale. OK, Elon encourages us. However, Superchargers, service centers and stores specifically are different. Local planning, zoning and permitting intervene to make some obvious places difficult (Superchargers: Plantation, FL, Greenville, SC are both good examples. Stores: how about San Antonio, TX? Zoning commission rejects Tesla plan - San Antonio Express-News

IMHO we all should be thrilled with what we have and give a little bit of slack to the Tesla Supercharger team, who are deploying a half dozen new Superchargers every week somewhere in the world. Yes, I desperately want more of them, including at least one that is actually near me in Miami, FL. There are plenty of nearby charging stations, including some Destination chargers and i have my own charger too.

For Canada specifically I wish there were much faster deployment. Looking at the Supercharger planning map it's pretty obvious that tesla is thinking about North-South high traffic locations. Thus we'll end out with Edmonton, a but West coast support and a bit East, but not much trans Canada nor very much within densely populated Provinces either. The fundamentals of Tesla planning are quite obviously driven by expected trip driving density of Tesla vehicles. Personally I think they'll accelerate more in areas where sales volume rises more than they've guessed, in areas where the local rules make it easier and in areas where local authorities ask. The Supercharger team are very accommodating; just ask them how to induce Tesla to open a Supercharger near you more quickly. Get other owners to join forces with you. Enjoy!

 

[Max*]

It's Tesla. Take the time estimate, apply a fudge factor of 17.

But really, it's not accurate at all. It depends on if they can get a site to agree to host the superchargers, get permits, etc. I've been waiting on a few superchargers in PA to populate (2015 map), and even someone got an email from Tesla saying that they expect it to be done by this summer.... There have been no permits pulled yet, so there is exactly 0 chance of that happening.

And chances are, it might not happen in 2015 either.

 

[mibaro2]

Canada seems to have more hoops for Tesla to jump through than other countries. Probably due to different provincial rules, regulations, etc.

 

[ecarfan]

One of my biggest reasons for buying the car is to make use of "free" charging. Therefore, one of my biggest hesitations with buying the car is the fact there is no supercharger anywhere near me.

Perhaps you could clarify: are you saying that your major reason for considering a Tesla is that you want to make trips greater than 250 miles and because there is no Supercharger within 250 miles of you that you are hesitant?
If so, then you should wait until a Supercharger site that you need is under construction.
If the reason you are considering a Tesla is because you want nearby "free" Supercharging for daily or weekly use, then perhaps you could provide information about why charging at your home is not possible. Do you live in a multi-unit dwelling? Something else?
Home charging is incredibly convenient and easy once set up. People who have never owned an EV often fail to appreciate how wonderful home charging is.
Just trying to understand your situation.

 

[efusco]

I'm hoping that it is fairly accurate, given that they've already pushed back prior "future maps" to what it is now and I-44 is a major roadway that has been the victim of the pushback.

 

[FlasherZ]

When supercharging was rolled out, Tesla had a a map that showed "coming soon", "2013", and "2014". "Coming soon" and "2013" were accurate, "2014" was about 50-70% accurate: they made many of them happen, but a good chunk of them just disappeared by the time the end of 2014 came around. They weren't just pushed to 2015, they just... disappeared and were plotted on the 2016 map - example: Mt. Vernon, IL. I'm seeing the same thing with the "2016" map; it seems "2016" is where they dump a dot for anyone who reports a potential location to the Supercharger team. I think you'll see a good chunk of them appear throughout 2016, but I also think you'll see a good chunk of them fall off.

Full disclosure: I'm *still* waiting for the one supercharger required near Paducah, KY to connect St. Louis with the Southeast, instead of forcing us to drive an extra 250 miles each way through Indianapolis, and it bugs the crap out of me, just like Evan is frustrated with the lack of addressing I-44 (I really want that one too, since Branson is a big destination for us).

 

[Soolim]

The Tesla website has this page: Supercharger | Tesla Motors Canada

One of my biggest reasons for buying the car is to make use of "free" charging. Therefore, one of my biggest hesitations with buying the car is the fact there is no supercharger anywhere near me. Should I expect, based on that map, that there *will* be one this year? Or I should just hope there is? What kind of history do they have coming through with placing them where they say they will?

When you say free charging, do you mean you do not intent on installing a home charger at home? Is there any difficulty in doing that? The supercharger stations are intended for long distance trip, while it is free, it is not meant to replace the home charger. I would love to have Tesla install superchargers in the vicinity of Kelowna, a part of BC I love to visit more often.

That said, the Tesla timeline cannot be relied on. Read up more on many topics (specially on the delays in Autopilot feature of the car) in TMC to understand the pros and cons of owning a Tesla before you spend $100k. Your biggest reason, i.e. free charging, would be the wrong reason to own a Tesla Model S. There would still be cost in home charging, but it is less than 20% when compared to driving an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle. It would probably take more than 20 years of normal commute to achieve break-even based on current fuel cost alone.

 

[fwgmills]

Speaking of a gap of industrial proportions...I-20 and I-10 in Texas. Nothing at all. Fortunately I'm still saving my pennies so they should be done by the time I can get a Model X.

 

[wk057]

If the autopilot fiasco is any indication you definitely shouldn't buy anything from Tesla based on something you want that doesn't actually exist yet... which is sad to say, unfortunately, but true.

 

[jaguar36]

Full disclosure: I'm *still* waiting for the one supercharger required near Paducah, KY to connect St. Louis with the Southeast, instead of forcing us to drive an extra 250 miles each way through Indianapolis, and it bugs the crap out of me, just like Evan is frustrated with the lack of addressing I-44 (I really want that one too, since Branson is a big destination for us).

This seems to be pretty common. I think alot of us have just one or two locations that have been on the map forever and we really need them to get built. Personally the massive PA gap is brutal, we're taking a trip today and will have to go down into Maryland because of it. Hopefully it will get addressed in the near future.

 

[mknox]

Canada seems to have more hoops for Tesla to jump through than other countries. Probably due to different provincial rules, regulations, etc.

I can't say for sure, but I don't really think so. Certainly not from an electrical connection point of view. Supercharger stations are like any regular commercial service, and utilities hook these up every day. I think Canada was initially assigned a very low priority.

 

[taurusking]

My understanding is that 2015 or 2016 Superchargers map is not that predictable...Will those places listed get a supercharger...probably yes but not in the time frame mentioned on Tesla website.

 

[m6bigdog]

You should not purchase a MS anticipating TESLA will support your local charging needs.

I'm not so concerned about the current Supercharger network as I am the rapid continued build-out in a few years.
IMHO, the 2016 map looks pretty good if that becomes reality and I'm hoping 2017/2018 looks even better.

I want to be able to take road trips based on the direct route to the desired destination and not on the available Supercharger route!!
That will make the MS the New Normal!!

Supercharging is a trip enabler topology not a way to provide the user with free local electricity.

Believe me, the Supercharger is much more functional for trip planning than local charging.
Therefore, as a MS owner you want superchargers located +/- 100 miles in the most traveled directions away from your home location so you can jump in your MS (partially charged) at a moments notice and get an in-route charge once you drive out beyond the round trip range of your MS.

Wanting to use a Supercharger for your local charging is other than TESLA's Supercharger network implementation intent and at some point they may limit local Supercharging to the individual owner as an economic and/or strategic necessity.

Also, it is unfortunate that TESLA's website titled the mileage as "Commute" as that infers a round trip to work and/or included the Supercharger in the charging time calculation as that just further confuses those shopping for a TESLA. They could have just as easily titled it "Mileage". However, if we just wait I anticipate that will get changed soon or it will include additional clarification for the Supercharger since it doesn't fit the "calculator's concept" of daily charging routine anyway, since Supercharging is typically a planed in-route multi-charging event rather than end of the day or daily occurrence!!

 

[bcsteeve]

Thanks so much for all your replies.

I admit I was thinking of the supercharger as a potential local charger and I wasn't even going to bother installing a home charger. Obviously I had a logical disconnect there so I'm glad I asked the question, because obviously your experiences tell me my thinking was flawed. I accept that. I was looking at it sort of the same as going out to fill up the gas tank... but free. If I charge at home, obviously, I'm paying for the electricity. So to me it seemed obvious. If you look at it from the point of view that it is coming out of Tesla's pocket... well, it isn't. Not here at least. It is coming out of the taxpayer's pocket, but I'm OK with that. Still, I get that what you're saying is that it isn't practical and that home charging is so much more convenient.

The cost of an empty-to-full charge here is roughly C$9.35. That's roughly 7.2L of fuel at today's prices. If I accept the stated range, that gets me 1.65L/100km equiv and that's pretty fantastic (my current fairly-economical cars are about 7.0 L/100km)

To the person that said we should give Tesla a break and stop expecting the impossible... that is even more flawed logic than mine I'm not expecting or demanding they put a supercharger in my town because I want one there. I expect them to do it because that's what they stated they will do. Doing what you say you're going to do is not "impossible", it is expected good business practice. From a company that has a history of blowing away expectations, to fall short on promises is an extremely avoidable potential disaster from a PR point of view. There's no reason to put a pin on the map if that isn't going to happen. So yes, I expect it and yes I hold them in a somewhat lower regard if they are routinely missing their targets, as it seems they are. Am I saying they should fire Mr. Musk? Of course not... but perhaps wag a finger at whoever is in charge of pinning the map and assigning dates to them. It wouldn't be too hard at all for them to have a different color for "suggested" or "on the radar but not yet approved" or whatever.

 

[jkirkebo]

If you look at it from the point of view that it is coming out of Tesla's pocket... well, it isn't. Not here at least. It is coming out of the taxpayer's pocket, but I'm OK with that.

Are you implying that Tesla gets free electricity for their SuperChargers in Canada? I've never heard of that happening anywere, so far.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

From a company that has a history of blowing away expectations, to fall short on promises is an extremely avoidable potential disaster from a PR point of view. There's no reason to put a pin on the map if that isn't going to happen. So yes, I expect it and yes I hold them in a somewhat lower regard if they are routinely missing their targets, as it seems they are. Am I saying they should fire Mr. Musk? Of course not... but perhaps wag a finger at whoever is in charge of pinning the map and assigning dates to them.

Yes but they do say... "The map above is a representation of the corridors we plan to enable and the timing thereof. Exact locations and timing may vary."
Note, "corridors" and, maybe more importantly, "plan." (not, "pledge")