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How will a delay of model X impact share price?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by daniel Ox9EFD, Oct 23, 2014.

  1. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    #1 daniel Ox9EFD, Oct 23, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2014
    There are hints that the model X will only be available towards later 2015, and who knows if delays would stop there. This probably affects the bottom line, especially given what it says about what we can expect for model 3.

    [edit: clarification, It wasn't the intention to just come here and spread doom & gloom. But rather hope to get some new information on how this might turn out.]
     
  2. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    Do you have any verifiable information that would substantiate that the Model X has been delayed?
     
  3. maoing

    maoing Active Member

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    I suspect the validity of this model X delay rumor.
    First, dual-motor is one of the key challenges to achieve good efficiency and maintain good range for model X, right now dual-motor technology has been demonstrated in model S "D" version;
    Second, gull-wing door, I doubt it would be the cause of model X release;
    Third, Elon hinted that 2H of 2015 will have significant net profit, I assume he referrs to model X volume delivery. In order to make sure volume delivery from Q3, limited (signature) delivery should start from Q2 as guided by TM

    Even in worst case, model X gets delayed, I believe it must have good business reason instead of technical/production issues.

     
  4. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    How would it impact share price? There's been so many articles about it this past couple weeks that I can guarantee a delay is already priced in.

    That said, there's been zero indication of such a delay, only a lot of "analysts" (people who are wrong far more often than they are right when it comes to Tesla) predicting it. So if Tesla meets it's claimed target, the stock should climb.
     
  5. Eds

    Eds Member

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    It appears that delay is almost a given as there have been no deliveries in Q2 and there will not be any deliveries in Q3 of 2015. so there should be some concern re official story from Tesla that they expect to deliver 5,000 model X cars in 2015.
     
  6. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    ? They set the expectations of no deliveries in Q2 back in November of last year. So far they are still saying September which is still Q3. They only need to deliver 1 to be 'on schedule.'

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/347385224x0x791902/D7B8CC04-9C3E-4216-9CE3-7FB4D7E0C00B/Q314%20SHL%20Final.pdf
     
  7. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Wait. Did you just move from Newark, California to the EU overnight?
     
  8. Oil4AsphaultOnly

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    Good eye! Yeah Eds, what gives?!
     
  9. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Tesla is highly likely to hit the launch target of Q3....as you say it only needs 1 car (or a few founders cars) to be out the door by Sept 30th. To be honest I think that even if they declared the design studio open in Q3 and started converting reservations to orders the market would probably accept that as a 'launch. I think the tougher question is how smoothly production ramps up (now we know that the level of Model S commonality is lower than expected) and how many Xs get actually delivered by year end. Tesla reaching 55k deliveries this year depends on there being a certain number of Model X and there's no room for any supplier breakdowns, assembly complications, port strikes etc.

    I already feel sorry for the DES who are going to be working Christmas and New Year all over again. Current delivery record is 11,507 IIRC but in Q4 there might be 12-14,000 Model S as well as 5,000 Model X. Tesla needs to make sure the channel can physically handle 17-19,000 cars.
     
  10. Nigel Tufnel

    Nigel Tufnel Member

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    Apparently there are two Mister Eds, which is good because once you've beaten one well past death, you can start on the other one.
     

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