How will Tesla demo FSD?

[heltok]

There is a chance we will very soon see a demo of FSD, maybe today. So how would they demo it?

A bit more than two years ago Tesla released this demo:

From what we can see there they at least had some motion flow, object detection, object prediction, driveable area, navigation, control and traffic light understanding. Since then they have had plenty of time to work with software 2.0, get a lot more and better data, designed 10x faster hardware, make larger neural nets and work out bugs. Exactly how far that has brought them we don’t know.

Aug 2018 Elon said:

“We could do a coast-to-coast drive, especially if we pick a specific route and write code to make it work, but that would be kind of gaming the system,” Musk said on the call Wednesday. “Better for the Autopilot team to focus on safety and existing features.” He later added that if he wanted to, Tesla could execute the coast-to-coast drive by the “end of the year.”

No demo happened. Maybe they wanted to demo something even better? A few other companies have already demoed coast to coast so it would not be that newsworthy.

So what could they do instead? If Tesla was to do a major demo of FSD what do you think they would relase?

 

[ewoodrick]

Probably like they demo'd the Model 3.

Here's what we are expecting to do …….. followed by the many months of no communications like we are in now. Then here it is!
Remember 500,000 people paid $1000 for a reservation 2 years in advance.

But to be a little more realistic, they are already demoing it, piece by piece. One day all the pieces will just work.

 

[Tam]

...A few other companies have already demoed coast to coast so it would not be that newsworthy...

Agreed. Waymo has demoed a lot already so I don't think another demo from Tesla is meaningful.

...But to be a little more realistic, they are already demoing it, piece by piece. One day all the pieces will just work.

I think what more meaningful is to let owners experience the progress along the way.

After automatic (no confirmation needed) Navigation On Autopilot, let us experience Stop Sign Compliance, then Signal Light Compliance...

 

[allhands]

Agreed. Waymo has demoed a lot already so I don't think another demo from Tesla is meaningful.

I actually think it would be very meaningful and much more so than Waymo and others because the Tesla coast-to-coast demo would be using a vehicle that is:

1. Currently being sold to the public
2. Being sold to the public with the hardware needed to achieve the demonstrated coast-to-coast drive.

Waymo and the others may have done it already, but they will not be selling their vehicles to the public anytime soon let alone in mass production like Tesla vehicles.

 

[strangecosmos]

I don’t think a coast-to-coast demo would be hugely interesting. Like it’s somewhat interesting... but how compelling is it if Tesla just kept making attempts until it finally got one right?

But I could see Tesla still wanting to do the coast-to-coast demo anyway because it’s something Elon promised and hyped up.

What would be way more interesting is if Tesla sent 10 cars on different routes, and all 10 made it across on the first attempt with the latest software. Or 100 cars, and all 100 made it.

The ultimate would be hundreds of cars demonstrating 1 million+ miles of error-free fully autonomous driving in different city settings.

 

[heltok]

Maybe they have solved the commute for all their FSD-employees and will make a video of hundreds of different drives fully autonomous from their houses to their work. Each employee have been a betatester and every intervention has been followed up and fixed through software 2.0 until finally all of them have at least one commute to work without intervention.

 

[fmonera]

It would be great and exciting to see a coast to coast demo ... but a demo is a demo. The demo will have been planned and designed on advance, and it will be successful by definition, otherwise it wouldn't have been released. That successful attempt might have taken another 999 failures and guarantees an accident if you try to replicate it on your car.

When I see my own Model X make my own coast to coast trip (I mean, Valencia/Spain to Lisboa/Portugal), that indeed will be exciting. That will mean that there are no geofenced tricks, and it is indeed driving on unexpected conditions, and that Tesla is confident enough that the widespread release of the software update will not kill people.

Anything else is just another Mobileye / Tesla / NVidia / ... fabricated video for me. That said, it will be exciting to see, as any other autopilot demo.

 

[croman]

Elon has been hyping smart summon. I bet that is all they demo today (along with hw3 announcement) and they say FSD "coming soon" but we actually know soon is indefinite and does not mean imminent.

 

[heltok]

So any predictions for 19 April?

Tesla To Host Autonomy Investor Day

PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla is making significant progress in the development of its autonomous driving software and hardware, including our FSD computer, which is currently in production and which will enable full-self driving via future over-the-air software updates. With a number of very exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead, Tesla will host investors on the morning of April 19th at our headquarters in Palo Alto to provide a deep dive into our self-driving technology and road map.

Investors will be able to take test-drives to experience our Autopilot software first-hand, including features and functionality that are under active development. Investors will also hear directly from Elon Musk, as well as VP of Engineering, Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering, Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI, Andrej Karpathy.

As investors will be able to try it I will guess city driving around Palo Alto with hands on driver, but car doing everything itself.

A video of LA-Palo alto shown, maybe even with a car arriving during the presentation. That would be ballsy.

 

[BigD0g]

So any predictions for 19 April?



As investors will be able to try it I will guess city driving around Palo Alto with hands on driver, but car doing everything itself.

A video of LA-Palo alto shown, maybe even with a car arriving during the presentation. That would be ballsy.

My prediction is a very controlled route, with predefined start and end points. And it will probably just be making a circle around the various buildings between Tesla and SpaceX in a very controlled fashion with 0 variability.

 

[boonedocks]

My prediction is a very controlled route, with predefined start and end points. And it will probably just be making a circle around the various buildings between Tesla and SpaceX in a very controlled fashion with 0 variability.

You mean a drive like Elon said he wouldn't do a couple of months ago? You know...coded and programmed to follow one and only one route? Hmmmmm at this point I fully believe Elon IS capable of doing that just to save face for a few more months..... SMH SMH SMH

AND to top it off it will be in Model 3's since the S & X are the (dating myself here) red head step children getting the leftovers now.....

 

[RDoc]

My prediction is a very controlled route, with predefined start and end points. And it will probably just be making a circle around the various buildings between Tesla and SpaceX in a very controlled fashion with 0 variability.

At 10 mph and no one allowed anywhere near it.

 

[boonedocks]

At 10 mph and no one allowed anywhere near it.

yessssss utilizing that new "GrannyMode" displayed in the Enhanced Summon videos we have seen

and BTW done only in Model 3's... #AnotherElonLetDown

 

[BigD0g]

yessssss utilizing that new "GrannyMode" displayed in the Enhanced Summon videos we have seen

and BTW done only in Model 3's... #AnotherElonLetDown

I think that is closer to 1 - 2 mph...

 

[diplomat33]

So any predictions for 19 April?

As investors will be able to try it I will guess city driving around Palo Alto with hands on driver, but car doing everything itself.

A video of LA-Palo alto shown, maybe even with a car arriving during the presentation. That would be ballsy.

I think a well defined route that is "safe" but also includes the basics like a couple traffic lights and a few turns would make sense. They might do a similar route to the previous test drives where they basically just go around the block, except this time it would be completely hands free.

I agree it would be super ballsy but totally awesome if they had a car start a few blocks away and arrive on stage with no driver inside. Maybe they will show off enhanced summon where Musk will summon a car with no driver inside onto the stage?

In any case, I hope the April 19 event really wows us.

AND to top it off it will be in Model 3's since the S & X are the (dating myself here) red head step children getting the leftovers now.....

When the mega Model S refresh comes, the S won't be the "red head step child" anymore. And even though I am a Model 3 owner, I admit I am sometimes a wee bit jealous of Model S owners. I adore my Model 3 like a first born child but the Model S is such an awesome car.

 

[favo]

You mean a drive like Elon said he wouldn't do a couple of months ago? You know...coded and programmed to follow one and only one route? Hmmmmm at this point I fully believe Elon IS capable of doing that just to save face for a few more months..... SMH SMH SMH

Just because it might be a known route or restricted to a certain area doesn't mean they are cheating. I know if I were conducting the demo, I would have tested it lots of times on nearby roads to make sure there aren't any edge cases there that it can't handle. We already know that whatever they demonstrate isn't going to be perfect, since they plan to demo features in active development. I imagine they don't plan to demonstrate known bugs. (Like Steve Jobs used to do all the time--oh wait...)

 

[malcolm]

So any predictions for 19 April?

Elon hits the big red "Summon All" master button he has under his desk, just next to his white cat's kitty tray.

All US Teslas converge on Palo Alto.

Unfortunately, the "Return All" button is HW3 only (3 to 6 months) so thousands of owners have to travel cross country to retrieve their vehicles.

Alternatively....

Some sort of remote camera feed from a distant car (probably a Model 3) will be shown at the event. It will have a driver (my guess would be Andrej Karpathy), but they will be present only to take over in an emergency. Elon is on stage and presses Smart Summon on his phone. We watch as the car navigates across to the Palo Alto facility and right up to Elon.

Elon and Andrej high-five etc.

Elon delivers stats n facts about FSD.

He announces that the software (or some key aspect of it) is going "live tonight" - he hits another button to commence a nationwide Firmware Update.

The "one more thing" will be the Blade Runner truck.

Invites audience to place orders for the truck and to try out some of the FSD Model 3s around a specially prepared Tesla course.

 

[dgatwood]

So any predictions for 19 April?

Elon musk summons a Tesla from New York City. It drives for about four hours before the battery runs down, because the person who was supposed to be at the first Supercharger called in sick.

Then, they show a demonstration of the V3 supercharger on a Model X. Unfortunately, it is running 2019.08.03, so the screen goes black and they have to reboot it four times before the end of the presentation.

Finally, they do a towing demonstration with the Model Y, towing a Model 3, but somebody accidentally hits the smart summon button on the Model 3 at the same time, and it rips the back bumper right off.

Their bloodlust sated, the shorts say their "I told you so"s. Meanwhile Elon Musk gets in his car, and says, "Take me home, Jeeves," and it does.

 

[malcolm]

"Take me home, Jeeves,"

Jarvis, not Jeeves

 

[lunitiks]

It’s gonna be some kind of Terminator-style live event with smoke and driverless cars rolling out on stage. Then a bunch of talk. Then some Men In Black suits, aka «safety drivers», will take rides with screaming crazy tesla fans.