How will the long wait affect sales?

[Bounou]

I am curious how what is looking like really long wait times will affect the public perception of the M3, unless Tesla can seriously ramp up much faster then expected some of the orders won't be fulfilled for years past the initial delivery date.

I think it's one thing for more affluent customers who are buying a MS or a MX as a second car but what about the target customer for the M3. People who hang out on this forum are probably not going to let the extend wait affect them but what about the customer who orders this next year after the second reveal and has to wait 2-4 years to get a car?

Can Tesla adjust production enough? Will this be a real issue?

 

[Krugerrand]

Some people will opt out. Others will plan accordingly making current vehicle last longer, leasing, or buying used for the interim.

Humans are taught from an early age to get in line and wait for something they need or want. The more desirous, the longer they'll wait. Inevitably some will realize while waiting that they don't need or want it as badly as they thought, some will grow tired of waiting and throw in the towel, others will become more determined than ever to get it, and still others will try and bud in line.

No biggie.

 

[N5329K]

How long would you wait before cancelling your reservation? 2018? 2019? 2020? It's a complex question, and things like new models from competitors, the steepness of Tesla's production ramp, progress at the Gigafactory and plain old impatience will all play a part. I would guess that there is a narrow window of opportunity for an established competitor to strip off M3 orders in the next few years. I know that VW is considering it. Whether any of them will take that opportunity, who knows.
Robin

 

[kzod]

I'd cancel my order tomorrow if something better was available. However, I don't see that happening any time soon.

 

[BluestarE3]

Nissan is already running an ad to entice Model 3 reservers to jump ship and get a Leaf along with $4,000 cash back. Won't be surprised to see something similar coming from GM once the Bolt is out. Will be interesting to see how many of the 400K+ reservations are those just wanting an electric car rather than a Tesla specifically. I suspect those who want a Tesla will wait for a Tesla... at least wait longer than those who just want an EV.

 

[Steepler2k]

I want an EV, and I'd prefer it to be a Tesla. Honestly though, so much of that is the appearance and offerings that currently exist or are coming in the near future from other car companies. If there was an EV by another company that offered a sedan (or at least not an overly goofy looking hatchback) in the low to mid 30s, with 150-200 mile range, I'd probably cancel my M3 reservation and buy it. And I was in the group that was lined up at a store prior to it opening.

I don't see that mythical competitor happening, though. I think the only possibility would be if the next gen Leaf takes on a much more normal appearance. We'll see what Honda puts out there with the Clarity BEV, but it may not even be possible to obtain where I live. I'm going to have this next car for 10-15 years (or more) just like my current car. I'm not willing to have something I hate looking at for that long.

 

[ArtInCT]

Tesla, the company really needs the cash from Model 3 sales. I am sure that some pretty smart guys and gals at Tesla are figuring out how to get the various critical paths in line for the 3 to happen sooner rather than later....

The Gigafactory has to be in production to make sufficient cells, the Fremont production line has to be turned on and tuned in and lastly the various suppliers have to ramp up and get products and sub-assemblies shipped.

Also the 3 needs NO GIMMIC features like the X has to slow down production and rollout.

That is a few balls in the air... fingers are crossed.

I am Speaking from a Model S and stockholder's perspective.

 

[rodrego]

I reserved in store the morning before the announcement. Two weeks ago my car *sugar* out on my for the last time. Bought a new Subaru Outback. Plan on giving it to my wife when the Model 3 comes in.

 

[mako7c4]

Same deal, my car died not to long ago and I went with a cheap beater from craigslist. hopefully it will limp to the finish line with a brand new model 3 in the driveway!

I stood in line opening morning for the model 3 because its like nothing else, and it doesn't look like the competition will rise to the occasion anytime soon. I'll never understand who green lights these awfully ugly cars and expects them to sell like hot cakes.

 

[1000Down]

I am curious how what is looking like really long wait times will affect the public perception of the M3, unless Tesla can seriously ramp up much faster then expected some of the orders won't be fulfilled for years past the initial delivery date.

I think it's one thing for more affluent customers who are buying a MS or a MX as a second car but what about the target customer for the M3. People who hang out on this forum are probably not going to let the extend wait affect them but what about the customer who orders this next year after the second reveal and has to wait 2-4 years to get a car?

Can Tesla adjust production enough? Will this be a real issue?

I think that current reservation holders know there will be a wait but I do think that there will be a relationship between time and the percentage of reservations that convert to actual sales.

If Tesla ramps up slowly and pushes low option cars to the back of a long line, I think reservations drop like flies.

It seems as though traditional ICE manufactures are not interested in making good looking EV cars that might compete with their ICE lineup so Tesla will have an advantage for a longtime.