How will US Presidential elections affect TSLA?

[dakh]

This is a touchy topic but I wanted to solicit some opinions on the subject matter. It irked me quite a bit that Elon was quite frank in saying that Tesla will be "used as a political football" and "kicked around".

Now the way I see it as long as Tesla is competing with S-Classe that statement makes little sense. Sure the $7500 incentive might or might not get extended or redefined based on the election outcome. But that shouldn't be nowhere near the level of concern vs. Elon publicly admitting that the whole thing is kind of a big deal.

Where I'm going with this is the this question. Is there something material that is of serious concern for the short to medium term (election season) specifically or was he referring to potential negative longer term outcomes? To me it was pretty clear he's not a fan of either side so I can't quite read what this really means.

Thoughts?

 

[Mark Z]

IMHO, Tesla should be in good shape no matter who wins the Presidential race. Trump wants cheaper electric by supporting clean coal and since the Model S and X are made in the USA, there would be no tariff on the cost of a new vehicle that is imported. Hillary would support alternative energy and the shutting down of coal fired electric generation, so electric rates may rise, but I wouldn't be concerned if installing solar panels on your roof to lower your electric rate or produce off the grid power.

 

[Enadler]

I believe the state races are more important for Tesla. If there can be a change in the state houses of the states that are currently preventing Tesla from utilizing their direct sales model we could see a very positive development.

 

[Intl Professor]

Given the current malaise in Washington, the states do seem to be more proactive in dealing with at least the states' perception of what is best for local preferences. The influence of ICE manufacturers on state legislatures is probably greater than on Congress which feels pressure from a wider spectrum of interests. Local legislators are probably more dependent on contributions from auto dealers and real estate developers than Congressional candidates.

Watch the governor's races. If there is significant continued drop in Trump's popularity and a concomitant downstream race effect, Republican Governors might be at risk. But more important in the short-run will be the Republican Convention since there is some evidence of a dump Trump movement on the part of some delegates already. The Republicans are in a real bind. Party leaders are alarmed by Trump's chances but would have to go against primary voters. If they prevail in what is likely to be a very raucous event, my guess is Paul Ryan will be the new nominee as the best opponent against Clinton. I have no idea what his position is on climate change which would directly affect Tesla.

Caveat emptor: I am not a so-called Americanist. My expertise is mostly in the foreign policy area. Further, by Scandinavian standards of partisanship I would probably be ranked middle-of-the-road. That makes me a progressive by U.S. standards. That is why it is so necessary to have a reality check here by knowledgeable critics.

 

[ecarfan]

IMHO, Tesla should be in good shape no matter who wins the Presidential race. Trump wants cheaper electric by supporting clean coal and since the Model S and X are made in the USA, there would be no tariff on the cost of a new vehicle that is imported. Hillary would support alternative energy and the shutting down of coal fired electric generation, so electric rates may rise, but I wouldn't be concerned if installing solar panels on your roof to lower your electric rate or produce off the grid power.

There is no such thing as "clean coal". Obama used that phrase in his 2008 campaign speeches: it was a myth then and it remains so.

The cost of energy when produced by renewables such as wind and solar continues to fall and is making coal-powered electricity uneconomical. That trend will continue regardless of who the next president is.

I believe Elon is concerned that the next president could be someone who completely fails to understand that burning fossil fuels drives climate change. We all know which candidate that is. Such a president is likely to push for policies that do not support sustainable energy and sustainable transport. That would be contrary to Elon's goals, and obviously to Tesla's mission statement.

 

[Saghost]

There is no such thing as "clean coal". Obama used that phrase in his 2008 campaign speeches: it was a myth then and it remains so.

Have you seen what they did at the Wabash river plant?

Coal will always have the CO2/global warming effects and isn't great to mine, but it seems to be possible to nearly eliminate the other airborne pollutants.

Of course, it is neither cheap nor simple - oxygen generation, gassification, an amine loop for sulfur, then a gas turbine with exhaust heat recovery - but it is actually pretty efficient, managing ~40% overall thermal efficiency despite all of the intermediate steps.

wabash | netl.doe.gov

Having said all that, I think I agree with your basic point - the falling costs of solar and storage technologies make them a better option financially in addition to the global warming issue.

 

[kort677]

if you could buy into the concept that republicans and democrats are really just the cheeks on the same butt you'll realize that whomever moves into the white house is quite irrelevant. the power of our government has shifted from the "elected" officials to the power brokers (big money) and the faceless bureaucrats who are creating laws and regulations without regards to the limits of law.

 

[doctoxics]

I see important changes if Hillary Clinton is elected president. Her Supreme Court appointment will greatly increase the chances for a Tesla federal legal challenge to state laws preventing Tesla sales. Similarly, reversal of Citizens United will take the big money out of state elections and give Tesla a better chance of defeating auto dealer sponsored laws at the state level. Her enforcement of clean air laws will hasten the closing of coal-fired power plants, to be replaced by solar and wind energy. Her platform stresses public financial incentives for renewable energy and electric transport. She will publicize the need to solve the global warming threat. How can these impacts of her presidency not help Tesla? They will. Donald Trump has been on the other side of these issues and would not be a good bet for Tesla.

 

[roblab]

There is no such thing as "clean coal". Obama used that phrase in his 2008 campaign speeches: it was a myth then and it remains so.

The cost of energy when produced by renewables such as wind and solar continues to fall and is making coal-powered electricity uneconomical. That trend will continue regardless of who the next president is.

I believe Elon is concerned that the next president could be someone who completely fails to understand that burning fossil fuels drives climate change. We all know which candidate that is. Such a president is likely to push for policies that do not support sustainable energy and sustainable transport. That would be contrary to Elon's goals, and obviously to Tesla's mission statement.

Just noticed last night that our CA energy mix is at 0.5% for coal, and renewables are almost at 25%. Of course Natgas is still big, but it will drop.

 

[Ludus]

Hope that they get those solar panels hooked up to Superchargers so they can operate in "zombie apocalypse mode" if we turn out to be in the version of this universe simulation where we elect a reality TV host as president.

 

[kort677]

Hope that they get those solar panels hooked up to Superchargers so they can operate in "zombie apocalypse mode" if we turn out to be in the version of this universe simulation where we elect a reality TV host as president.

what would be the scenario if a lying, traitorous, murdering, systemically corrupt person was to be elected? I'm not trying to provoke a political battle but this thread is about looking at all the possibilities.

 

[Ludus]

what would be the scenario if a lying, traitorous, murdering, systemically corrupt person was to be elected? I'm not trying to provoke a political battle but this thread is about looking at all the possibilities.

This does get to the heart of it. My allusion was to a candidate who was a reality show host and by extension had no relevant experience for the presidency. I think you'd grant that was basically just factual. Your allusion was to a candidate who was "lying traitorous, murdering, systematically corrupt". Lying...OK that's kind of generic. Everybody especially every politician lies. The essence of the problem here is the treason and murder accusations. If you honestly think that's true then you live in a different universe factually than I do. I think a lot of voters do read and view an entirely different reality and that's the real problem. In my universe one candidate has some issues of judgement in a long record of serving in public offices. The other is completely unqualified in an unprecedented way. He's not a bad guy. There's no need for bizarre conspiracy theories though to document that he has no experience or qualifications.

Perhaps it seemed a bit like things said a long time ago about Ronald Reagan as a candidate. Saying he was a movie actor. That however was understood to be a cheap shot. While he was originally an actor he had a long career and experience in politics. He was a union president but more importantly was governor of the largest state. He'd had prior major campaigns for president. It was like calling Jimmy Carter a peanut farmer. He's also been governor of Georgia.

 

[Jack6591]

The "endowment effect" permeates our society. It manifests itself in the "regulatory capture" of public utility commissions I.e. NV Energy & the NPUC and in the ways the NADA is capable of influencing legislation is states like Texas.

The challenge of climate change is a moral imperative that demands free market energy. Tesla's "Secret Master Plan" is a blueprint for challenging the status quo. It makes great sense.

I am voting for Hillary Clinton, along with Elon and Lyndon.

 

[Gilzo]

There is no such thing as "clean coal". Obama used that phrase in his 2008 campaign speeches: it was a myth then and it remains so.

The cost of energy when produced by renewables such as wind and solar continues to fall and is making coal-powered electricity uneconomical. That trend will continue regardless of who the next president is.

I believe Elon is concerned that the next president could be someone who completely fails to understand that burning fossil fuels drives climate change. We all know which candidate that is. Such a president is likely to push for policies that do not support sustainable energy and sustainable transport. That would be contrary to Elon's goals, and obviously to Tesla's mission statement.

^^^ This!

 

[kort677]

This does get to the heart of it. My allusion was to a candidate who was a reality show host and by extension had no relevant experience for the presidency. I think you'd grant that was basically just factual. Your allusion was to a candidate who was "lying traitorous, murdering, systematically corrupt". Lying...OK that's kind of generic. Everybody especially every politician lies. The essence of the problem here is

generic? my goodness, you seem to be ignoring the essence of hillary.
can you name one accomplishment of her's in her many years of "public service" I can cite from her being fired as a low level senatorial aide working on the water gate hearings, to the trail of corruption from her commodity "trading" to selling uranium to the russians to accepting "contributions" from rouge states to the clinton foundation, to the trail of dead people who were associated with her and I'm not even touching the illegal email servers or the benghazi debacle.
support her if you want but trying to say that she isn't all that bad because all politicians lie is just incredulously ignorant of realities. and with that we can both agree that the candidates offered to us is abysmal at best and I find it so sad where we are headed.

 

[Chopr147]

Ludus writes: My allusion was to a candidate who was a reality show host and by extension had no relevant experience for the presidency. ??? I am not on the Trump train but live in NY and have seen plenty of Trump over the years. Reality host was one of his many jobs. And as far as experience , the current president had about zero before being elected and his inexperience has been obvious. I will take the businessman over a lifetime political operative

 

[Jack6591]

Donald Trump advocates the proliferation of nuclear weapons. That's very astute business.

 

[Chopr147]

That's a very astute assumption

 

[kort677]

a little hillary info:
DO YOU KNOW?
Edward 'Ed' Mezvinsky, born January 17, 1937. Now you're saying, "Who in the world is Ed Mezvinsky?” ____
Okay, he's a former Democratic congressman who represented Iowa’s 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives for two terms ... 1973 to 1977. He also sat on the House Judiciary Committee which DECIDED THE FATE OF RICHARD NIXON ____ He was outspoken claiming that Nixon was a crook and a disgrace to politics and the nation and should be impeached. (He and the Clintons were friends and very politically intertwined for many years.) ___ Anyway, Ed Mezvinsky had an affair with NBC News reporter, Marjorie Sue Margolies, and later married her after his wife divorced him. WELL GUESS WHAT ____ In 1993, this same Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, (then a freshman Democrat in Congress) CAST THE DECIDING VOTE that got President Bill Clinton’s controversial tax package through the House of Representatives ____ Now fast forward ... March 2001: Ed Mezvinsky was indicted and later PLEADED GUILTY to 31 out of of 69 counts of bank fraud, mail fraud, and wire fraud. ____ HE EMBEZZLED more than $10 MILLION DOLLARS from people via both a Ponzi scheme and the notorious Nigerian e-mail scams. He was found guilty and sentenced to 80 months in federal prison. AFTER SERVING LESS THAN FIVE YEARS in federal prison, he was released in April 2008 and remains on probation ____ To this day, HE STILL OWES $9.4 million in restitution to his VICTIMS. ____ I know ... NOW YOU'RE SAYING, 'So what!' WELL ... Meet Marc and Chelsea Mezvinsky (photo provided) ____ That’s right; GOOD OLD ED IS CHELSEA CLINTON'S FATHER-IN-LAW
Marc and Chelsea are in their early thirties and purchased a $10.5 million dollar NYC apartment (after being married in George Soros’ mansion) ____ ANYONE HEARD ANY OF THIS MENTIONED IN THE MEDIA ?
____ BTW: CAN YOU IMAGINE if this guy was Jenna or Barbara Bush’s, OR BETTER YET, Sarah Palin’s daughter’s father-in- law? The news would be an everyday headline and every detail would be reported over and over ... but hey . . . there's no double standard in political reporting! RIGHT ? ____ Chelsea Clinton earned $600,000 a year when working for NBC and now works for the Clinton Foundation and sits on many boards.
THE UNENDING CYCLE REMAINS ____ Lying and corruption are now known as POSITIVE ATTRIBUTES in the political world." (author unknown)
Abraham Lincoln: "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.”

 

[Gilzo]

a little hillary info:
DO YOU KNOW?
Edward 'Ed' Mezvinsky, born January 17, 1937. Now you're saying, "Who in the world is Ed Mezvinsky?” ____
Okay, he's a former Democratic congressman who represented Iowa’s 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives for two terms ... 1973 to 1977. He also sat on the House Judiciary Committee which DECIDED THE FATE OF RICHARD NIXON ____ He was outspoken claiming that Nixon was a crook and a disgrace to politics and the nation and should be impeached. (He and the Clintons were friends and very politically intertwined for many years.) ___ Anyway, Ed Mezvinsky had an affair with NBC News reporter, Marjorie Sue Margolies, and later married her after his wife divorced him. WELL GUESS WHAT ____ In 1993, this same Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, (then a freshman Democrat in Congress) CAST THE DECIDING VOTE that got President Bill Clinton’s controversial tax package through the House of Representatives ____ Now fast forward ... March 2001: Ed Mezvinsky was indicted and later PLEADED GUILTY to 31 out of of 69 counts of bank fraud, mail fraud, and wire fraud. ____ HE EMBEZZLED more than $10 MILLION DOLLARS from people via both a Ponzi scheme and the notorious Nigerian e-mail scams. He was found guilty and sentenced to 80 months in federal prison. AFTER SERVING LESS THAN FIVE YEARS in federal prison, he was released in April 2008 and remains on probation ____ To this day, HE STILL OWES $9.4 million in restitution to his VICTIMS. ____ I know ... NOW YOU'RE SAYING, 'So what!' WELL ... Meet Marc and Chelsea Mezvinsky (photo provided) ____ That’s right; GOOD OLD ED IS CHELSEA CLINTON'S FATHER-IN-LAW
Marc and Chelsea are in their early thirties and purchased a $10.5 million dollar NYC apartment (after being married in George Soros’ mansion) ____ ANYONE HEARD ANY OF THIS MENTIONED IN THE MEDIA ?
____ BTW: CAN YOU IMAGINE if this guy was Jenna or Barbara Bush’s, OR BETTER YET, Sarah Palin’s daughter’s father-in- law? The news would be an everyday headline and every detail would be reported over and over ... but hey . . . there's no double standard in political reporting! RIGHT ? ____ Chelsea Clinton earned $600,000 a year when working for NBC and now works for the Clinton Foundation and sits on many boards.
THE UNENDING CYCLE REMAINS ____ Lying and corruption are now known as POSITIVE ATTRIBUTES in the political world." (author unknown)
Abraham Lincoln: "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.”

^^^^^ yawn.