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How will X be affected by M3 deliveries over the next few weeks?

Discussion in 'Model X' started by noahsw, Jul 19, 2017.

  1. noahsw

    noahsw Member

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    Just curious what people think. For example:
    1. If demand for M3 stays high, will they offer discounts on X or other value-adds?
    2. Any concern with production quality or are the factories and teams completely separate?
    3. Anything else you can think of?
    Thanks!
     
  2. X Fan

    X Fan Supporting Member

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    First post, investor?
     
  3. noahsw

    noahsw Member

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    Ha - sadly no. Just a guy who's had an M3 reservation for over a year but now my wife and I are expecting our first child in November so we're now considering the X.

    LMK if there's any other way I can prove myself =)
     
  4. jareade

    jareade Supporting Member

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    :)

    Separate production lines, so there should be no impact. Best discounts now are on the leftover 90s, but that supply is dwindling. I wouldn't be counting on any new X discounts for a while - at least until/unless there was a model refresh or new technology introduced.
     
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  5. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    As you presumably know, there's a massive wait list for the 3, and they'll only be trickling out at first - half your period is actually still before the formal release and first deliveries.

    Because of this, I don't think there will be a change in demand for the X that might convince Tesla to make new incentives in the short term.

    In the longer term, there are three obvious updates coming for the X which may or may not affect inventories and incentives - Xavier (and any AP hardware updates that go with it,) a shift to 2170 cells, and presumably an interior update from that senior Volvo designer they hired a few months ago (with HUD?? :p)

    Tesla is presumably buying a massive number of new main controller chips for the 3, and presumably something more modern than the five year old Tegras in the current cars, so even if a whole new interior doesn't show up, an updated center console seems likely at some point, too.

    Taking a guess at why you're asking, I don't think you'll be better off trying to order or buy inventory in a few weeks or even a couple months than you are today, and the upgrades I'm expecting might not show up until next year so it might be a long wait for them.
     
  6. LyftupX

    LyftupX Member

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    To me all signs point to an active sales and discount period 2nd half of the year.... I could be wrong but the automotive industry is showing signs of a slowdown.... they are holding out right now.

    This is all my opinion, it remains to be seen if Tesla will do any of the same but with stock and delivery pressure I can't see how they avoid it...again just my opinion. Look at the release of all the high mileage CPO cars... I'd be curious if you walked in and were serious about a inventory model if you can't knock a few more $$ off.
     
  7. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    No. X buyers and 3 buyers are different markets with minimal overlap. A base X is almost twice the price of a base 3.

    In my opinion, Model 3 demand is going to be very high for years to come with long wait times for delivery. In 5 years Tesla could be selling 1 million of them annually. S/X demand is not going to grow a lot. The market for large cars with a $90K+ ASP is relatively small in comparison. I still find it amazing that Tesla can sell approximately 100,000 S/X annually. No one, including Tesla management, imagined that was possible 5 years ago when the S launched. And certainly all the other car company CEOs were dismissive of Tesla's chances at that time. They aren't talking that way anymore...
     
  8. X Fan

    X Fan Supporting Member

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    well then, two completely different products; If you can swing it, X is a fantastic and safe vehicle for the family...good luck with your child.....
     
  9. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    The contrary could happen, though.

    Trickling Model 3 supply could cause demand issues to both Model S and Model X, as people wait for a cheaper large-battery alternative. That might prompt Tesla to pull any and all kinds of demand levers they can think of - until Model 3 ramps up sufficiently to pay the bills...

    And before you say Model X won't be affected by a smaller sedan, I wouldn't be so sure. With such limited choice and options for a large-battery EV, Model X has been gathering attention it might otherwise not get. Model 3 could affect it. Less so than Model S, but still.

    We shall see.
     
  10. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    I think changes to Model X would be the biggest thing to look out for. Certain things can and probably will come from Model 3 developments to Model X: the 2170 cells to the battery (and whatever benefits that will bring) as well as a new big screen computer/possibly an interior refresh in the style of Model 3.

    Then there is the question of what Tesla will do to keep Model S/X differentiated and selling when a much cheaper Model 3 is introduced. This could lead to more product changes and improvements. There is a rumor of HUD coming to Model S/X first and perhaps only later down the road to Model 3.

    I would wait to see what changes in Q3 before ordering. If nothing changes in Q3, I would expect something big to change in Q4 or Q1 latest. Whether or not that affects your personal timeline is of course subjective and completely up to you. But IMO major changes to Model S/X seem quite likely in the short-term.

    I kept saying in Q2 that waiting until Q3 would make sense - it took Tesla exactly one day into the new quarter to introduce performance improvements to Model S/X. So there certainly is a sense that the Model 3 launch is ushering a set of changes to Model S/X. More will be very likely coming.
     
  11. ninefiveone

    ninefiveone Member

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    I'm curious about all of the speculation above since it seems mostly based on hope.

    -2170 cells: Elon has already said there is no plan to bring those cells to the S and X this year. I wouldn't expect to see those cells until they introduce a new set of battery capacities to the S and X and for this year there appears to be no need.
    - HUD: Every rumor about a HUD starts with the Model 3 because people can't believe that it has only a central display. Tesla is actively moving towards a future of autonomous driving. There is no place or need for a HUD in that world.
    - Interior refresh: Tesla hired Volvo's interior engineer, not their designer. That will result in the interior being put together with better quality, not a different design. There's been nothing to indicate they're considering a redesign and if they do, the 3 suggests their design language hasn't changed much.

    Tesla needs the S and X to be stable for some time longer to recoup their capital investment and generate some margin. The S is longer in tooth so it's more likely to see meaningful updates than the X.

    Both cars continue to see incremental updates on an ongoing basis. This is like buying the latest mac. Best time to buy is after the latest revision, as big or minor as it may be. The new rear drive unit and focus on 75 and 100 battery packs qualifies for the X for this quarter.
     
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  12. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    Not really. I, for one, have no reason to hope such things - I am not planning a new Tesla anytime soon.

    Mostly your points are answered with a simple: I guess many of us don't believe Tesla/Elon when it comes to such statements or find them likely misleading. It is in Tesla's interest to not disclose future plans.

    I guess what he actually said was there are no plans at all. Not this year, but no plans at all. That said, I do believe there are plans and that 2170s are coming. I do think you are right on the schedule, though, Q1 earliest seems possible. Next year is not very far away.

    Not really. There have been other rumors regarding the HUD that have specifically mentioned Model S/X and/or are based on Tesla hiring augmented reality people. An autonomous future is a nice excuse, but so far away that there is likely room for other things in the meanwhile.

    It is certainly possible, as you say, the Volvo hire resulted in interior optimizations, not a re-design. But again there are other reasons to believe a dash refresh is in the works, both rumors as well as common sense - the current big screen computer is aging fast and the dash has not been facelifted once in a car that is 5 years old...

    Most changes that come to Model S will come to Model X as well.

    This is nothing like buying a Mac at all, those have fairly predictable upgrade cycles that are much longer than Tesla's many changes every quarter.

    The new rear drive unit is just the start. More major changes are very likely in Model S/X over the next quarter or two.
     
  13. Peteybabes

    Peteybabes redneck drivin' a tesla...

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    #13 Peteybabes, Jul 19, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2017
    please bear in mind that the cheapest MX inventory car ( Model X 90D 5YJXCDE26HF044637 | Tesla ) is still likely to be 3-4 times higher on lease rates or finance rates...

    also likely 2-3 times greater down payment.
     
  14. azred

    azred Member

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    While we are all just guessing: If you want discounts, I'd wait until the federal tax credit expires -- or at least partially expires. Perhaps it won't affect sales prices of $100k cars much, but surely will be a huge factor in all 3 sales and sales of the base X's and S's. Also, by that time other appealing choices will probably be close to appearing such as offerings from the VW Group (especially Porsche). That will surely pressure Tesla prices, perhaps even more so than the loss of the fed tax credits. And those competing cars will have the tax credit for several more years.

    I am glad I'm near the front of the 3 line but it has occurred to me I'd get a much more polished car and probably wouldn't pay much more if I waited a couple years.
     
  15. vandacca

    vandacca ReActive Member

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    #15 vandacca, Jul 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2017
    Elon did recently say that there were no plans to upgrade Model X/S with 2170 cells.

    But only a month earlier he stated that 2170 cells would be in the X/S before end of year, seemingly in contradiction with his later statement.

    This could mean that they haven't defined a 2170 upgrade schedule yet, but they may have the intention of upgrading them before year end (or early next year due to missing deadlines).

    With regards to a HUD, this was always just a rumour based on the lack of a Instrument Console in the 3. Is there any point in spending valuable R&D time and money on a solution that would become obsolete in 2-3 years?
     
  16. Peteybabes

    Peteybabes redneck drivin' a tesla...

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    My personal opinion is that they have to fulfill their contract with the original battery Manufacture (Panasonic) by buying/using the cells that they were contracted to use...once that's done the change will probably happen right away.

    This will also be when 100+KWH batteries will happen, even though Elon has said no bigger than 100 it would be unlike Tesla to keep innovating and getting the max range possible out of their vehicles.
     
  17. vandacca

    vandacca ReActive Member

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    Contracts with Panasonic can definitely affect things, but I have no knowledge of their contracts. Tesla will always need cells from Panasonic, does it matter if they fulfill 18650 cells or 2170 cells?

    With regards to bigger batteries, I too wouldn't be surprised if they come out with a 100+ kwh battery. However, they can still innovate with Battery technology while keeping the same kwh. For example, they can produce:
    • higher density batteries (same capacity, but lower weight)
    • batteries that can charge/discharge faster
    • batteries with better longevity
     
  18. Peteybabes

    Peteybabes redneck drivin' a tesla...

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    true simply saving weight could gain a few miles, 800V charging would be nice or at least 350KW+ at 400V & a 10-12 year warranty instead of 8 year would all be great selling points.
     
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  19. Freedom101

    Freedom101 Member

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    I was in the exact same boat. Had a really early reservation on the model 3 (still have it but likely won't use it now) and then had a 2nd child while waiting. We went and drove the model S and it felt too small so no way the 3 was going to work for road trips. Purchased a stock MX 90D last weekend. Had planned to go 100D but the stock model was more than what we wanted and the price difference was basically a new model 3...
     
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  20. ninefiveone

    ninefiveone Member

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    I agree that one should always take tesla/Elon with a grain of salt. Where we differ is you think they will do more than promised. Hence why you say things like "they could," amplify other unfounded rumors that support that view, and demonstrate hope.

    They will do less.

    Call me a cynic but it doesn't mean I don't appreciate what tesla has accomplished or what they will do. I just have more realistic expectations.
     

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