TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Huge quarter end spike in deliveries

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by FrozenCanuck, Sep 18, 2014.

  1. FrozenCanuck

    FrozenCanuck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2014
    Messages:
    147
    Location:
    Port Perry, Ontario
    It seems Tesla is pushing hard to make a LOT of deliveries by quarter end. I was at the Toronto supercharger yesterday. This is also a store / service centre (hello to the folks reading!). I went inside while charging and the floor was totally covered with new Model S cars for delivery. One of the guys who does PDI mentioned that something like 3 trucks had arrived full of cars in the last couple of days.

    I should have taken pictures.

    And then my attention was directed to a post here:
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/njeaa/

    Springfield, NJ location expected to deliver 160 cars by month end.

    Wow.

    Any other stories from folks visiting Tesla delivery locations?
    Who think they can beat guidance?
     
  2. CHGolferJim

    CHGolferJim Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2014
    Messages:
    841
    Location:
    Chapel Hill, NC
    It would go a long way in addressing recent share volatility.
     
  3. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,664
    Location:
    Virginia
    anecdotal evidence. There is usual rush to deliver cars by end of qtr. they batch cars too for different localities, cannot extrapolate to other delivery sites. He said yesterday he thought they would meet guidance in fox interview, if no unexpected logistical hold ups.
     
  4. austinEV

    austinEV Active Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2013
    Messages:
    2,486
    Location:
    Austin
    Anecdotal yes, but it does help underpin Elon's statement. I would be worried if there were not anecdotes about hasty end of quarter deliveries.
     
  5. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,664
    Location:
    Virginia
    Just don't want anybody expecting huge beat. Musk has always been quite honest. I believe report will hinge more on margins and guidance.
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    2,900
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    I am not hoping for a huge beat considering the unexpected delay in installing the second line at Fremont.

    Just hoping they hit guidance at 7800.
     
  7. SCDrJ

    SCDrJ Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2014
    Messages:
    143
    Location:
    Scottsdale, AZ
    My DS said that they are killing themselves to deliver all cars promised September deliveries IN September. I was told my 9/27 delivery might be moved up or back a day or so depending on the truck, but I WILL get my car in Sept. Another anecdote from AZ.
     
  8. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,664
    Location:
    Virginia
    What delay. That is speculation without announcement
     
  9. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    2,900
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    I thought it was scheduled for 2 week shutdown but lasted 3 weeks?
     
  10. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2014
    Messages:
    2,744
    Location:
    Santa Cruz Mountains, USA
    Mine is due 9-26. I worry that they may be under so much pressure to perform that it compromise their quality. Boy, do I hope not.
     
  11. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,664
    Location:
    Virginia
    would not worry about that. its not the production thats rushed but the delivery. every qtr seems to end like this. loaners are sold as well as second cars on the show room floor. have not heard of quality issues in other quarters. enjoy your car
     
  12. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2012
    Messages:
    2,531
    Location:
    Kongsberg, Norway
    #12 Yggdrasill, Sep 19, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2014
    True. Production is going as fast as it can all the time. I believe they are limited by the number of battery packs that can be put together.

    The end of quarter rush is an effect of no new cars being sent off to places they won't arrive at before the end of quarter. Basically no new cars will be sent to Europe and China this month, instead they will be delivering all the cars they made sure to send last month. As they aren't sending any cars overseas, they have planned it out so that almost all the cars produced this month are for US and Canadian customers. And for the cars produced in the last few days of the month, they will almost exclusively be doing factory deliveries and deliveries in the Bay area.
     
  13. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,379
    Location:
    SF Bay Area
    I was at the Costa Mesa, CA (Orange County) delivery center this morning. They are prepping cars left and right. The nearby Service Center is literally crammed with Model S's. There were well over 200 of them there and they had people coming in to take delivery every hour. I didn't take the time to look at many serial numbers, but I did catch one at 54XXX.
     
  14. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2012
    Messages:
    2,238
    Location:
    New York, NY
    I feel like its catchup or it's going to be a massive beat for delivery. Based on Elons recent fox interview in NY I'm hoping its the latter.
     
  15. DrDave

    DrDave Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2012
    Messages:
    241
    It's the former. Wouldn't be working today just for a massive beat. Production is behind from the shutdown/startup of the new line.
     
  16. pete8314

    pete8314 Vendor

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2012
    Messages:
    1,947
    Location:
    DFW
    Same deal at the Dallas SC, they're working late into the nights to keep the deliveries moving on for the end of the qtr. Seems ot be a pattern at Tesla though, not sure this qtr is different to any other, aside from the fact they might be trying to make up for the 2 week retooling.
     
  17. CHGolferJim

    CHGolferJim Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2014
    Messages:
    841
    Location:
    Chapel Hill, NC
    The stock does not need any bad news, there have been enough buying opportunities. A +5% would be nice, otherwise it looks pulled forward.
     
  18. drinkerofkoolaid

    drinkerofkoolaid Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2012
    Messages:
    1,624
    Location:
    F
    Do you think production is below Tesla's guidance or Tesla's internal expectations? Didn't someone conclude Tesla had around 4000 Model S that could act as a buffer in the event of any production delays?
     
  19. bsd

    bsd Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2013
    Messages:
    207
    Location:
    Guelph, Canada

Share This Page