Hurricane Irma

[X Fan]

Sunday update: Storm + 8

Still over 75K customers without power in Naples/Collier County; also, still no potable water and since waste removal system was severely impacted, wastewater removal is still a big issue.

Pretty intolerable for all customers but particularly the ones that can't even boil water due to power loss.

 

[NigelM]

Two brief commentaries on my last 2 days:

I visited Bonita Springs yesterday to help manage the Catholic Charities disaster recovery center. The impact down there was substantial with lots of flooding STILL in evidence, significant numbers of huge trees down and significant damage to buildings. I spoke to folks who haven't been able to get back to their trailer homes yet and are not optimistic about what they'll find when they get there. We had 6 more semis arriving on Saturday with water and MREs, but water is what folks needed most; Catholic Charities expects to continue the food and water distribution for some weeks at least, even as we move towards getting folks cleaning materials and start helping others to find housing.

I spoke to our Catholic Charities managers in Arcadia at length on Friday...Huge amounts of the orange crop (primary product in that region) have been destroyed and note that the primary employers are the fruit farmers; this means the fruit pickers (on hourly minimum wage to start with) are now unemployed for the foreseeable future. 26% of the households in Arcadia live below the federal poverty line, on average that's <$25k per year for the entire household. Many of those folks had trailers/houses flooded or with wind damage and now no income to support their families. The structural damage is less than in the south at Bonita Springs but the economic impact here is major by anyone's definition. Catholic Charities is supporting with water, food, clothing and as much cleaning products as we can acquire; critically it's going to take cash to get these people's homes restored to habitable conditions.

In total we have set up 11 disaster recovery centers across a number of counties. If anyone feels inclined to donate please go here; Catholic Charities DoV spends minimum amounts on administration and has consistently hit the highest score on Charity Navigator for many years. (N.b. As a Board Director I receive no benefits, expenses, or remuneration from Catholic Charities)

 

[thegruf]

... next up Maria.

forecast to become a major hurricane - just hope this takes a more northerly track and misses the US mainland.

But looks like some islands are going to get a repeat battering
-bit of a worry for us as my daughter is now on a plane to the Dominican Republic for honeymoon.

 

[wdolson]

It's too early to tell, but Maria so far is following pretty much the same track as Irma.

 

[Btrflyl8e]

Hi Christal,

Sorry that you were without power for so long. If you want to get away from it all why not join us in Sarasota this coming Friday?

Celebrate the opening of the Sarasota Superchargers at Stonewood Grill

Larry

I saw this event and had been thinking about going... but after eating a bunch of crap during all this, I'm committed to going back to a clean diet of only real food. No eating out and no cocktails. I'd lost nearly 30lbs since the end of March, and gained 3 just in the last week.

Thanks for making sure I was aware but I'm going to pass on this one. I look forward to the pictures, though!

 

[KarenRei]

It's too early to tell, but Maria so far is following pretty much the same track as Irma.

Right now, "offshore east coast" is most likely, with the nearest pass around North Carolina. But Florida is definitely still at risk.

 

[kort677]

Right now, "offshore east coast" is most likely, with the nearest pass around North Carolina. But Florida is definitely still at risk.

that is NOT what the weather services are predicting.

 

[KarenRei]

that is NOT what the weather services are predicting.

There is only one "weather service" responsible for hurricane prediction in the US, and that's the NHC. And it doesn't issue guidance out beyond five days / 120 hours - although even for five days, they already show the recurve starting:

If you want guidance further out, you have to rely on the models, and particularly the ensembles. And here's what they have to say.

Florida is not out of the woods. But it's not the most likely target. Unlike Jose, Maria is a moderately straightforward storm to predict, with only a few possible edge cases that go askew.

 

[KarenRei]

Karen is the utmost authority on copy/pasting from weathernerds!

You're right, I should hand-paint the ensembles. Or would crayons be better?

Weathernerds has the best ensemble graphs. Tropicaltidbits has the best baseline run graphics. The NHC has the official graphics. So most of the graphics I post will be from one of those three sources.

To return to the original post: there is only one "weather service" with responsibility over hurricane forecasts, and that's the NHC. It A) does not predict a Florida strike, B) does not predict that far out, period, and C) already shows the recurve starting (as seen in the ensembles) in its five-day graph.

 

[NigelM]

Urgent call for help from anyone near Naples:

 

[Racerx22b]

You're right, I should hand-paint the ensembles. Or would crayons be better?

Weathernerds has the best ensemble graphs. Tropicaltidbits has the best baseline run graphics. The NHC has the official graphics. So most of the graphics I post will be from one of those three sources.

To return to the original post: there is only one "weather service" with responsibility over hurricane forecasts, and that's the NHC. It A) does not predict a Florida strike, B) does not predict that far out, period, and C) already shows the recurve starting (as seen in the ensembles) in its five-day graph.

I recommend paint by numbers.

 

[DiamondHands]

Hey Tesla fam, in case you have interest and some time, I just put up a low-budget production on YouTube speaking to using my X as an Irma exodus vehicle.

Cheers

 

[Doug_G]

Moved one post to snippiness

 

[Cyclone]

Hey Tesla fam, in case you have interest and some time, I just put up a low-budget production on YouTube speaking to using my X as an Irma exodus vehicle.

Cheers

My understand about Superchargers in the Nav is different than what Tesla told you. My understanding is that grayed out Superchargers are ones that are beyond your current and/or planned range. So Savannah wasn't offline, but that you couldn't reach it on your current charge level (since you didn't have a route mapped in yet).

 

[Larry Chanin]

My understand about Superchargers in the Nav is different than what Tesla told you. My understanding is that grayed out Superchargers are ones that are beyond your current and/or planned range. So Savannah wasn't offline, but that you couldn't reach it on your current charge level (since you didn't have a route mapped in yet).

I agree. When you select the lightning bolt the display shows 5 or so of the nearest Superchargers. All others are grayed out, but they are NOT necessarily out of service despite Tesla's instructions on the subject.

Larry

 

[Racerx22b]

Moderators on this forum really need to get a sense of humor. Disappointing.

Even the person (@KarenRei ) that I was allegedly being "snippy" with rated my post "funny". Glad to see at least some people have a sense of humor. Geesh!

 

[e-FTW]

Hey Tesla fam, in case you have interest and some time, I just put up a low-budget production on YouTube speaking to using my X as an Irma exodus vehicle.

Cheers

This was great, thanks for the video!
Feels like the Tesla was a good option, especially since the number of ratio of Tesla per Supercharger in the state seems pretty good. Better than California at least. I can only imagine what a major quake and evacuation would be like out here.
You did have to deal with downed Superchargers longer than your neighbors that dealt with down gas stations. But if you are ok with waiting a bit longer before coming back (say you like to have running water and sewage), the Tesla would be fine there as well.
Is that fair @SUMD ?

 

[e-FTW]

This was great, thanks for the video!
Feels like the Tesla was a good option, especially since the number of ratio of Tesla per Supercharger in the state seems pretty good. Better than California at least. I can only imagine what a major quake and evacuation would be like out here.
You did have to deal with downed Superchargers longer than your neighbors that dealt with down gas stations. But if you are ok with waiting a bit longer before coming back (say you like to have running water and sewage), the Tesla would be fine there as well.
Is that fair @SUMD ?

Now it looks like you may have had an easier time were you not misinformed by Tesla roadside...

 

[DiamondHands]

But if you are ok with waiting a bit longer before coming back (say you like to have running water and sewage), the Tesla would be fine there as well.
Is that fair @SUMD ?

Thanks for the feedback @e-FTW!

All in all, your last comment is correct. The consequences of natural disasters will of course remain variables. In this example, had Irma's effects been more pronounced, perhaps the power grid would have been down some additional few days. Had that been the case, considering that the superchargers depend on the power grid, the network would have been down longer than it was, and our return home would have subsequently been further delayed.

Depending on how urgently one needs to return home, this could clearly pose an issue.

If your schedule is flexible, then Tesla wins all day everyday as an evacuation vehicle. If however you absolutely need to return home as soon as possible, I would recommend using an ICE vehicle.

 

[MikeQ]

Thanks for the feedback @e-FTW!

All in all, your last comment is correct. The consequences of natural disasters will of course remain variables. In this example, had Irma's effects been more pronounced, perhaps the power grid would have been down some additional few days. Had that been the case, considering that the superchargers depend on the power grid, the network would have been down longer than it was, and our return home would have subsequently been further delayed.

Depending on how urgently one needs to return home, this could clearly pose an issue.

If your schedule is flexible, then Tesla wins all day everyday as an evacuation vehicle. If however you absolutely need to return home as soon as possible, I would recommend using an ICE vehicle.

Or take a generator with you. We had a double failsafe plan. Mainly because we wanted to spare our two main vehicles from destruction, we were going to load my Tundra's bed with our 7kw generator and 30+ gallons of gas in portable containers. I was going to drive the truck and my wife was going to follow in the Tesla with the kids/lizards. If we needed to charge we'd do it from the generator. If we were low on gas and couldn't find any, we'd fuel from the containers. I figured the only real time we'd have an issue was coming back into Florida, not leaving.

Since the storm shifted in our favor and weakened, we just stayed home and powered the house with the generator when we lost power.