HV battery replacement percentage

[ElectricNorth]

I'm guessing no-one has the data, but is there any way to estimate approximately the percentage of pre-facelift Model S cars that have needed complete HV battery replacement?

As far as I can tell, Tesla sold roughly 100000 Model S from 2012-2015, so probably around 120000 or so before the 2016 facelift.

There are quite a lot of reports of battery replacement on here and other forums, but obviously not many people are writing that they haven't had/needed replacement.

So what would people's estimates for the number of battery replacements, or a percentage of the cars sold?

I'm looking to buy a 2014/2015 Model S cars to buy, which would have 1-3 years of battery warranty left. I'm comfortable with being out of warranty for the rest of the car, but the battery failure rate is more of an unknown coming from an ICE...

If only Tesla had a clear pricelist for replacement!

 

[beatle]

Trying to extrapolate failure rates from forum posts will only get you an answer that is pretty much guaranteed to be wrong. A disproportionate number of people post their problems on the forum which paints a picture of mass unreliability. In reality things are rarely as grim as they appear on the forums, though there are some popular battery weak points related to Tesla imposed voltage caps and certain battery pack revisions having worse degradation than others.

 

[ElectricNorth]

True, I guess it would make a good worst case/upper bound on the number though!

 

[beatle]

If you're curious you could start a poll just asking people, "Has the battery on your car failed to the point that it was replaced by Tesla?"

 

[Zuikkis]

Also if you buy car used, it's very difficult to say if it still has the original battery or not.

 

[BigNick]

The last six digits on the battery sticker's serial number are very close (difference is less than 200) to the last 6 of my VIN.
The "battery odo" reported by TM-Spy matches the odometer on my dashboard (not that Tesla can't change that upon battery install) as well.
Because of these two facts, I assume my car has its original pack. Not a 100% guarantee but about as much as I can get since Tesla doesn't release this information and I don't know who the original lessee was to contact them (only that they were in Texas.)

 

[Akikiki]

I'm guessing no-one has the data, but is there any way to estimate approximately the percentage of pre-facelift Model S cars that have needed complete HV battery replacement?

As far as I can tell, Tesla sold roughly 100000 Model S from 2012-2015, so probably around 120000 or so before the 2016 facelift.

There are quite a lot of reports of battery replacement on here and other forums, but obviously not many people are writing that they haven't had/needed replacement.

Yes, someone has the data for replaced batteries. Only we will never know. Of course its Tesla.

The number of sales worldwide from 2012-2015 is 108,320

No, there's not quite a lot of reports of battery replacements. And even those that are reported here, I wager most/nearly all are (and I am not going to bother to count those that I could) are replaced under warranty.

In 2012 and 2013 Tesla was still learning how to build out the S batteries. Some failed, not completely, but went "out of balance" and would not take a full charge. They didn't waste a minute replacing those under warranty. Some didn't fail in 2014 or even 2015. Mine went out of balance while charging in Oct 2016. Replaced with a better battery - yes refurbished, than was in it. And is great today.

 

[AustinP]

I'm guessing no-one has the data, but is there any way to estimate approximately the percentage of pre-facelift Model S cars that have needed complete HV battery replacement?

As far as I can tell, Tesla sold roughly 100000 Model S from 2012-2015, so probably around 120000 or so before the 2016 facelift.

There are quite a lot of reports of battery replacement on here and other forums, but obviously not many people are writing that they haven't had/needed replacement.

So what would people's estimates for the number of battery replacements, or a percentage of the cars sold?

I'm looking to buy a 2014/2015 Model S cars to buy, which would have 1-3 years of battery warranty left. I'm comfortable with being out of warranty for the rest of the car, but the battery failure rate is more of an unknown coming from an ICE...

If only Tesla had a clear pricelist for replacement!

Sounds like you are doing your due diligence, which is good.

I haven't seen a price list from Tesla. Prices reported by forum members for replacing a 85 battery out of warranty can be found in other threads, but so you know, it is reported around 22k$. This is what you will pay if you return the failed battery. If you want to keep your failed battery, say to resell for parts, there is a core charge reported of 15k$ to pay to Tesla.

 

[aerodyne]

15k is not too much if most of the modules are good. Think you could save the best as spares, and make a set of power walls with the rest...