Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

HW2.5 capabilities

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
No, I don't think that's true, Elon has sold a vision, if he was to back track on that today and say oops, we need lidar and went forth and placed it in the M3, he'd lose all credibility.

Elon has staked his reputation and Tesla's on a vision/radar only approach, now we just need to wait a few years to see if he's right or not.

I think he is, I don't think lidar is required, but I think his timelines are waaaaaaaaaay off, but we already know that... "three months maybe, six months definitely..."
The biggest and most consistent psychologic feature of serial entrepreneurs is that they DON'T FEAR FAILURE.
Elon doesn't fear failure nor does he worry about "loosing credibility" when he changes avenues. On the contrary, he believes that we humans don't need LIDAR therefore the cars don't need LIDAR. The car needs vision without blind spots, ranging (which we do mostly through our binocular vision but we also have several specialized ways to do this in our brains, the cars do it with RADAR), and a consistently unemotional and deliberate decision making process (thats where we fail).

Lastly, any statement describing human behavior or biology that includes the terms always, never, 0% or 100% are inherently false. Truly, only math is 100%.
 
Nobody knows what the real FSD need is yet, neither does Elon. He has made his opinion about lidar not needed for FSD clear, though. It is his stated view and Tesla's current strategy, sure. Tesla can not know if they can convince enough jurisdictions to accept vision only, for instance (which AP2 mostly is, the radar is very narrow front and ultrasonics are only useful for low-speed maneuvering basically).

For me the question at this stage is more about how much better FSD might be with 360 lidar and radar coverage compared to only vision. I can see it being very helpful on dark highways for instace.
I tend to agree with this view. One can always illuminate a camera view, using visible, of not, light. This is what Lidar does, except in a scanning fashion. Radar does the same at a different frequency.
 
The path to math is a psychopathic bloodbath of telepath wrath, Kath, I'm an aftermath sponge bath glidepath sociopath with homeopathic lath strath hath snath. So go ahead and by-path the flight path and warpath and put you in a mud bath or bubble bath, Brath, cause yeah
 
[QUOTE="AnxietyRanger, post: 2299736, member: 27769" imagine darkness is the big thing that lidar can handle and cameras can not to the same extent.[/QUOTE]

I wonder about this. AFAIK night operations are not the weak point of camera based object recognition systems - performance at twilight is much more challenging. Headlights manage darkness quite effectively, especially when combined with reflective indicators and internal illumination that are use to delineate the large majority of items of interest on public roadways.

Consider that if poor illumination was a serious issue for night operation then adding near infrared illuminators would nicely compensate. This is how almost all security cameras handle darkness. But nobody seems to be doing that, which supports the idea that night operation isn't actually a big problem.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: scottf200
But nobody seems to be doing that, which supports the idea that night operation isn't actually a big problem.

Yes, well, but only Tesla is saying they're doing visual FSD. Rest are doing Lidar, which definitely handles darkness. So again it comes down to: is Tesla seeing something the rest are not? Surely they did with the BEV drivetrain. But that does not automatically translate to being all-seeing about everything...
 
  • Like
Reactions: zmarty
Yes, well, but only Tesla is saying they're doing visual FSD. Rest are doing Lidar, which definitely handles darkness. So again it comes down to: is Tesla seeing something the rest are not? Surely they did with the BEV drivetrain. But that does not automatically translate to being all-seeing about everything...

I don't disagree that groups using lidar + camera could be experiencing problems with the camera at night and deciding to rely more heavily on the lidar when the camera is performing poorly, but it seems odd that people building test vehicles would choose to sacrifice camera performance by omitting an inexpensive IR emitter. I see it frequently argued that the dominant value in adding lidar is that it increases safety through the addition of a redundant and orthogonal sensor platform, and that the not insignificant cost is small relative to the potential safety benefit. If that's true then it seems odd to be willing to tolerate camera degradation, cameras being one of the redundant and orthogonal sensor modalities, in order to save a truly insignificant sum.

I wonder sometimes if there aren't different approaches to thinking about cameras and lidar, and that these different approaches lead to different assumptions about the relative contributions of these two platforms. For instance, early driving systems like the those used in the DARPA challenges seemed to be relying very heavily on lidar to make a reliable model of the environment, and then using cameras just to supplement information that couldn't be absorbed by a lidar - like the state of a traffic signal, for instance. If the lidar locates the traffic signal but can't read it then perhaps it's a simple matter to just extract the relevant portion of the camera FOV that contains the signal and evaluate it for whether the light is red. If one assumes that approach - that lidar is doing almost all of the work and cameras are just filling in a few details - then the relative performance of the camera is perhaps a lot less important. So maybe operating at night wouldn't be much different since the lidar system is doing the lion's share of the work. In the middle you have sensor fusion approaches where every object in the world is independently and probabilistically evaluated using all sensor modalities and a consensus is reached. In that scenario every sensor always contributes, but sensors are often also backed up by other approaches. If you assume this kind of model then you don't want any system to be degraded, but degradation is on the whole more tolerable. Then you have the mainly cameras supplemented by lidar way of thinking, which is the reverse of the first approach and has a reverse set of requirements. Doing sensor fusion is the most difficult proposition because orthogonal sensor modalities have to be fused at a very high level, which means you have to have independent perception stacks that are individually highly functional. The first and third seem easier because only one of the stacks must be extremely good.

I think the first one is a natural red herring because it appeals to a simple model of driving: the most important thing in driving is to not collide with another object and lidar will reliably tell me if an object is present, thus lidar provides the best way to avoid a collision. The reason this is a red herring is because it reduces the task of driving to transportation without collisions and leads to strong and simple, but incorrect, assumptions. In 2006 vehicles using this model were able navigate an urban environment and perform simple tasks independently and without having collisions. But the absence of any of those vehicles from real world applications a decade later illustrates that it's not sufficient to just avoid collisions. And the other necessary aspects of the task are in fact much more difficult.

The actual requirement that a self driving vehicle must fulfill is to construct and maintain an accurate predictive model of the environment in which the vehicle is operating. That environment is extraordinarily complex, includes many rare but important situations and, for competent functioning, must include things as abstract as anticipating the actions of other drivers, pedestrians, cyclists, animals, and various natural phenomena as well as being able to recognize and understand all manner of objects that might find their way onto a roadway. A car should not brake for a pigeon standing in the road but it is highly advisable to brake for comparably sized and oriented trailer hitch lying in the street. A tumbleweed on a highway requires a different response to a comparably sized rock. Cars will encounter all manner of fallen branches and must be able to proceed, and sometimes they will encounter fallen power lines and must be able to not proceed.

It is true that lidar provides a kind of input which is easy to interpret and act on if the primary objective is to avoid interacting with other objects. For this reason it was an indispensable contribution to early efforts to make self driving vehicles. But cameras are by far the richer source of information about the state of the environment. Sophisticated vision processing is not something which can be omitted from truly competent systems.

For this reason I don't think that sacrificing camera performance is a good idea, especially if that performance can be supplemented easily. Note that all the hazards I enumerated above are as likely to occur at night as they are during the day, and all of them are much harder to distinguish with lidar than they are with a camera.
 
The problem with a single camera approach is predicting precise distances. I suspect Tesla will have trouble identifying distances to other perpendicular cars approaching a stop sign or realizing if someone is about to run a red light. Absent LiDAR, I think stereo cameras would have probably been a better approach and/or side radars.

Not that I'm saying it wouldn't be better to have stereo in all directions (plus lidar, plus, sure I'll take it, radar all around -- the more the merrier really), but... it is possible to do temporal stereo vision to get some idea of distance even from a single camera, if the camera is moving and you have consecutive frames from that camera over time. This obviously has important limitations, but it's not nothing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: John G
it is possible to do temporal stereo vision to get some idea of distance even from a single camera

Discussed somewhat in the latest Tesla Show episode: 72 – HD Maps with a Special Guest

This startup uses video captured from normal cellphones to create HD maps. They use consecutive frames like you discussed + "geometry" to build 3D maps only with 2D vision.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: croman
Curious. What do you think the other two rear-facing cameras on the front indicators are for..?

Not for cross traffic detection when backing out between two cars, that's for sure. They can't see anything.

If it was unclear, cross traffic detection for this scenario is a common driver's aid and commonly called that. It helps you see to the sides when backing out.

AP2 has an even worse blind spot on front when driving between two walls since there is no nose camera and no front corner radars...
 
  • Like
Reactions: scottf200
backing between cars

backing out between two cars

Thanks for clarifying.

I believe that the combination of rearview cam and ultrasonics is sufficient for car parks, where traffic is moving slowly, and for reversing out of angled parking spaces into the flow of traffic. I don't believe it could reverse out of a perpendicular parking space into the flow of traffic on a busy road.

FSD could mitigate this by always reversing into perpendicular parking spaces (i.e. like park assist does, when it works).