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HW2.5 capabilities

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I don't believe that includes the income from purchasing FSD at $3000. I think FSD pre-purchase uptake has been about 15%, so that's 75,000 cars that get the upgrade at no additional charge. Anybody else that upgrades pays $3000, with your estimated cost to Tesla of $2000.

The cash paid to purchase FSD has already been spent. It is carried as a liability (not a cash liability) until they can call the feature delivered. My point is that if they are able to deliver FSD on HW2/2.5, then they can erase that liability from their books without upgrading anybody. And if they can do this, they have a strong incentive to do it in order to avoid the cost of upgrading all those cars.

If they cannot deliver FSD as currently defined on HW2/2.5, then that's a different matter. Also handling of purchases before they redefined FSD is a rather large question mark right now, probably to be resolved in court.
 
If they cannot deliver FSD as currently defined on HW2/2.5, then that's a different matter. Also handling of purchases before they redefined FSD is a rather large question mark right now, probably to be resolved in court.

Gotcha. At this point, I find it very unlikely they'll not require HW3 for FSD. They've spent quite a bit of time and money developing it and are will definitely roll it out to new cars. It seems unlikely to me they would continue spending the time developing FSD for both chips, especially in light of Elon Musk stating all FSD pre-purchasers will get HW3.
 
Gotcha. At this point, I find it very unlikely they'll not require HW3 for FSD. They've spent quite a bit of time and money developing it and are will definitely roll it out to new cars. It seems unlikely to me they would continue spending the time developing FSD for both chips, especially in light of Elon Musk stating all FSD pre-purchasers will get HW3.

That depends on what you mean by "FSD". They have redefined the FSD package so that there is very little left in it that isn't already delivered on EAP. Once they have delivered the last little bit, they will quit developing new features for HW2.x and HW3 will be the future.

Sorry to be so cynical, but this is just obvious.
 
That depends on what you mean by "FSD". They have redefined the FSD package so that there is very little left in it that isn't already delivered on EAP. Once they have delivered the last little bit, they will quit developing new features for HW2.x and HW3 will be the future.

Sorry to be so cynical, but this is just obvious.

Yeah, there's nothing on the Tesla website that defines FSD as much more than EAP now (mentions stop lights, etc). On the other hand, Musk states in 2 years time (pending regulation), you'll be able to sleep during FSD. If that's true, that seems like an improvement over EAP.
 
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Yeah, there's nothing on the Tesla website that defines FSD as much more than EAP now (mentions stop lights, etc). On the other hand, Musk states in 2 years time (pending regulation), you'll be able to sleep during FSD. If that's true, that seems like an improvement over EAP.

Musk’s promises are not enforceable as part of the contract for FSD. So even if there is “more” to FSD that is offered later, that doesn’t mean Tesla owes anyone HW3.
 
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Moaning and complaining.

Chill, young people. Your car will get OTA'ed, and you'll be like:


... sitting backwards, beautiful blue seatbelts on, rainbow colored glass roof, showing off your glow-in-the-dark wrapped nosecone and chrome trim...

... winding your no-name timepiece in a rotating watch display on the dashboard...

Car's gonna have "HISTORICAL DATA", "WEATHER", "ABS", "ESP", "ASR", "°C", "KM/H", and even "POSITION".

Chillax. Gona be l5, reel soon
 
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That depends on what you mean by "FSD". They have redefined the FSD package so that there is very little left in it that isn't already delivered on EAP. Once they have delivered the last little bit, they will quit developing new features for HW2.x and HW3 will be the future.

Sorry to be so cynical, but this is just obvious.

EAP on AP HW2/2.5 may or may not ever become no-nag for it's features (NoA/Autosteer), it's possible that no-nag "EAP" operation may require HW3 (or later). The fact they recently re-organized features out of EAP into FSD (with the remainder just being "AP") I think means that since you can't buy EAP for a HW3 vehicle (nothing, AP, or AP+FSD, but no EAP) they are making sure that future improvements can be made to require FSD package.

Whether Autosteer/NoA on AP2.5 ever reach no-nag stage without an upgrade to HW3 (and thus FSD) remains to be seen (both whether it is doable in terms of performance and whether Tesla decides to enable it), but I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to gate no-nag driving behind FSD and thus HW3.

At least, the impression I got was that the new vanilla AP (TACC, Autosteer within lane only w/o lane change, no NoA) would always be "hands on" and therefor naggy. And thus FSD will be required for a no-nag experience, at least for HW3 owners, and therefore for consistency it would make sense to have the same restriction on EAP owners (AP2/2.5).

So if they do gate no-nag operation behind FSD+HW3, then while EAP is clearly more capable than AP, it's features such as NoA will never be quite as capable as the same features with FSD/HW3.
 
Great technical info, I'm just not sure how testa is going to be successful only with Cameras without secondary radar system to validate Cameras assumptions are likely to be correct.
There was an example of this during the FSD investor presentation where they were using the radar to be the 'ground truth' compared to what the logic is for the image processing to do boundary boxes around objects. ie. does the back of the boundary box match the distance that radar more precisely calculated.
 
Thinking about upgrading from HW1 but I realized I might be in for a downgrade - does anyone know if HW2.5 (or even HW3) radar has been upgraded in any way since HW2? Especially around heating or keeping the bumper clear of snow?

AP2 - Snow radar failure

If you want to take the plunge, be aware of idiocy like this: "Fleet Speed" (mis-)feature in 2019.8.6+

As far as I know they have not started adding a heater for the radar. My HW2.5 S does not have a radar heater, and yes it disables cruise control when the front bumper gets caked with slush in winter.

Phantom braking is currently terrible on HW2.5. It has taken several steps backward in the 2019 firmware series so far.
 
Thinking about upgrading from HW1 but I realized I might be in for a downgrade - does anyone know if HW2.5 (or even HW3) radar has been upgraded in any way since HW2? Especially around heating or keeping the bumper clear of snow?

AP2 - Snow radar failure

I know that 2.5 has a different radar model from a different manufacturer than 2.0 did. I've been told that 3.0 is using the 2.5 radar, but I don't know if that's been positively confirmed yet. I don't know if the newer radar is more capable in that environment.
 
I know that 2.5 has a different radar model from a different manufacturer than 2.0 did. I've been told that 3.0 is using the 2.5 radar, but I don't know if that's been positively confirmed yet. I don't know if the newer radar is more capable in that environment.

I see Model 3 owners complaining about small amounts of snow disabling radar this should be HW2.5+. As far as I can tell all HW2+ sensors are non-heated, and set several inches back from the bumper fascia (heating wouldn't matter anyway), and in a concave part, good for collecting anything that might be flying around, like snowflakes.
 
If you want to take the plunge, be aware of idiocy like this: "Fleet Speed" (mis-)feature in 2019.8.6+

As far as I know they have not started adding a heater for the radar. My HW2.5 S does not have a radar heater, and yes it disables cruise control when the front bumper gets caked with slush in winter.

Phantom braking is currently terrible on HW2.5. It has taken several steps backward in the 2019 firmware series so far.

Yikes...
 
Sorry posted this in another thread but trying to figure this out ASAP:

What happens in the winter when all camera's except the the windshield cameras are obscured, but the radar is still working? Does to car still have some sort of cruise control or is it like driving a Yugo as soon as any camera becomes covered in salt/dirt?
 
Sorry posted this in another thread but trying to figure this out ASAP:

What happens in the winter when all camera's except the the windshield cameras are obscured, but the radar is still working? Does to car still have some sort of cruise control or is it like driving a Yugo as soon as any camera becomes covered in salt/dirt?

You get notified that visibility is poor/restricted by weather and that NoA is limited/disabled, but TACC and Autosteer continue to work.
 
It's entirely plausible the radar gets obscured before the side cameras do, depending on the conditions. It's too bad the area in front of the radar isn't heated, I wonder if someone will develop an aftermarket accessory that installs behind the bumper somehow. The problem of course being how do you heat that without interfering with the radar itself... heated glycol loop with a heater elsewhere, so the part in front of the radar is RF transparent?