I don't believe that includes the income from purchasing FSD at $3000. I think FSD pre-purchase uptake has been about 15%, so that's 75,000 cars that get the upgrade at no additional charge. Anybody else that upgrades pays $3000, with your estimated cost to Tesla of $2000.
The cash paid to purchase FSD has already been spent. It is carried as a liability (not a cash liability) until they can call the feature delivered. My point is that if they are able to deliver FSD on HW2/2.5, then they can erase that liability from their books without upgrading anybody. And if they can do this, they have a strong incentive to do it in order to avoid the cost of upgrading all those cars.
If they cannot deliver FSD as currently defined on HW2/2.5, then that's a different matter. Also handling of purchases before they redefined FSD is a rather large question mark right now, probably to be resolved in court.