HW2 Autopilot - is it just me? or....

[u00mem9]

If you want to be happy then ignore what Elon says and just focus on the product he keeps delivering to the world.

Yeah, just ignore what Elon says, tweets, explains at press launches, posts in the blog, describes in the design studio, and instructs his sales people to say at the dealership...and you'll never know what your car was claimed to be capable of doing!

 

[NeverEnough]

I sold my classic 18 months ago and waited on the sidelines for AP2 hardware. I don't expect it will ever be FSD, but I think there is a reasonable expectation it will eventually be safe for me to fully relax for a portion of my commute. I will even be pleased if all they ever achieve for my car is a more stable and reliable version of AP1. I feel FSD as it has been described is a stretch goal and I am highly sceptical. A part of me is excited that I could be wrong. I have underestimated Tesla plenty of times so far.

I will not be disappointed or feel misled if Tesla doesn't achieve everything they have said they would because I knew going in there is a risk they never will for AP2, but I am confident they will get AP2 quickly to the level I want and that was the assumption on which I sold my classic and bought my AP2.

I understand why people will or already do feel upset (and even litigious) if becomes or has become obvious Tesla has over promised on capabilities. I also understand why people are already upset over the timeframe. Nevertheless, I think these feelings are essentially unfounded because to me it is common sense to be sceptical of Tesla since it's a tech company, they are surrounded in hype, and they are moving forward so quickly. These are obvious red flags!!! Don't take sales people's word! Don't just read marketing material! Pay special attention to areas where you notice them hedging.

That being said, I have purchased 3 Models S's (the first was totaled) from Tesla. My own scepticism led me to deep dive and determine what I think are conservative expectations. My final judgment has been each time that what I can confidently expect is valuable enough to me to justify the price. I would implore anyone who spends this kind of money to do the same or at least realize there is a risk. I would even do the same for a Model III.

 

[OBX John]

I sold my classic 18 months ago and waited on the sidelines for AP2 hardware. I don't expect it will ever be FSD, but I think there is a reasonable expectation it will eventually be safe for me to fully relax for a portion of my commute. I will even be pleased if all they ever achieve for my car is a more stable and reliable version of AP1. I feel FSD as it has been described is a stretch goal and I am highly sceptical. A part of me is excited that I could be wrong. I have underestimated Tesla plenty of times so far.

I will not be disappointed or feel misled if Tesla doesn't achieve everything they have said they would because I knew going in there is a risk they never will for AP2, but I am confident they will get AP2 quickly to the level I want and that was the assumption on which I sold my classic and bought my AP2.

I understand why people will or already do feel upset (and even litigious) if becomes or has become obvious Tesla has over promised on capabilities. I also understand why people are already upset over the timeframe. Nevertheless, I think these feelings are essentially unfounded because to me it is common sense to be sceptical of Tesla since it's a tech company, they are surrounded in hype, and they are moving forward so quickly. These are obvious red flags!!! Don't take sales people's word! Don't just read marketing material! Pay special attention to areas where you notice them hedging.

That being said, I have purchased 3 Models S's (the first was totaled) from Tesla. My own scepticism led me to deep dive and determine what I think are conservative expectations. My final judgment has been each time that what I can confidently expect is valuable enough to me to justify the price. I would implore anyone who spends this kind of money to do the same or at least realize there is a risk. I would even do the same for a Model III.

My only regret is paying for the FSD upfront - I thought I was encouraging the adoption of the technology, but I think having that revenue available once it starts working would be a better motivator. Should have used the money on a better stereo.

Overall my expectations have adjusted, and at least I have the car to drive now. I actually enjoy driving again - that's worth most of the price alone. But AP2 development needs every resource they can afford to throw at it IMHO - the self driving potential is the real difference between it and every other car on the road rather than the electric drivetrain.

 

[NeverEnough]

My only regret is paying for the FSD upfront - I thought I was encouraging the adoption of the technology, but I think having that revenue available once it starts working would be a better motivator. Should have used the money on a better stereo.

Overall my expectations have adjusted, and at least I have the car to drive now. I actually enjoy driving again - that's worth most of the price alone. But AP2 development needs every resource they can afford to throw at it IMHO - the self driving potential is the real difference between it and every other car on the road rather than the electric drivetrain.

I expect sometime this year, FSD cars will start getting features EAP won't. I could easily be wrong.

 

[CHG-ON]

Well, let's recall two things:

1 - AP1 took a full 12 months between hardware shipping and 7.0 being turned on in October 2015. That mean AP2 is rolling out on a much faster schedule than AP1 did.

2 - Remember, AP1 used a curated vision system trained by images annotated by human beings at Mobileye. As far as we know, Nvidia's solution is much less supervised learning powered by much more powerful neural nets. But it is a different system entirely. Amnon Shashua has publicly derided Nvidia's non-annotated learning approach several times at conferences. With Mobileye Tesla had a "vision in a box" kit ready to go on some level, but with Nvidia they are starting from zero. And despite this fact Tesla still seems to be rolling out AP2 on a faster schedule than AP1 was.



I think AP1 is amazing. I guess I'm easily amused and impressed.

Awesome info. Thanks. I learned a lot. I bet all the AP 2.0 owners are chomping at the bit to get it up and going, like we were!

 

[Canuck]

the self driving potential is the real difference between it and every other car on the road rather than the electric drivetrain.

I guess that's a matter of opinion. Thankfully, Tesla has both. But if it didn't, and another ICE had the best AP and Tesla had none, you wouldn't get me out of a Tesla and into that ICE.

 

[OBX John]

I guess that's a matter of opinion. Thankfully, Tesla has both. But if it didn't, and another ICE had the best AP and Tesla had none, you wouldn't get me out of a Tesla and into that ICE.

Well there are other electric cars. None better - but no one else is even close to Tesla with assisted / self driving.

 

[182RG]

I expect sometime this year, FSD cars will start getting features EAP won't. I could easily be wrong.

Not sure what you're trying to say? FSD needs EAP. It's a prerequisite.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Not sure what you're trying to say? FSD needs EAP. It's a prerequisite.

It is a prerequisite, but there is nothing stopping Tesla from having some feature only for those with FSD (which means the owners paid for EAP+FSD).

Now I don't think this is going to happen this year, but I can't discount that it's a possibility. I just can't think of anything that this would be.

 

[hughconn]

I love my Tesla. My new S75D replaced a '13 S85. But when it comes to updates, Tesla really needs to be more precise with its public dates, IMHO. I have the HW2 but many of its features are off until the software update rolls out. 8.1 pushed from end of December to end of January because of Linux Kernel update. Autopilot pushed and then rolled out to 1,000 with rest coming end of following week, which means they have 1 day to extend again, or release. 24 hours left! Only way to get current news is by following Elon on Twitter.

 

[brkaus]

It is a prerequisite, but there is nothing stopping Tesla from having some feature only for those with FSD (which means the owners paid for EAP+FSD).

Now I don't think this is going to happen this year, but I can't discount that it's a possibility. I just can't think of anything that this would be.

For example, FSD could have stopsigh and stoplight recognition. EAP doesn't need it as it's on ramp to off ramp focused.

 

[Drone Flyer]

Hi Everyone,

This is my first post here. I've got a 90D Model S on order, due for delivery during Feb/Early March - with HW2.

The "is it just me?" title is because I'm a bit concerned that we're in the middle of a major over-promise/under-delivery on HW2 autopilot and I was wondering what others felt about this.

The first promise was (and still is) in the design studio:

"Tesla's Enhanced Autopilot software is expected to complete validation and be rolled out to your car via an over-the-air update in December 2016, subject to regulatory approval".

Then we got a much reduced promise from Elon's tweet on 23rd Dec:

"Looks like we might be ready to rollout most of Autopilot functionality for HW2 towards the end of next week"

Notice he says most of _Autopilot_ functionality (not Enhanced Autopilot). There's a big difference.

Then, what we actually got at the end of last month was limited rollout to a small number of vehicles, with (as far as I can tell) autosteer limited to 35mph. Is this correct? If it is, that's not a useable autopilot compared with the HW1 baseline.

I was rather expecting a bit more in terms of complaining about all of this - but I haven't seen much as yet. Have I got it wrong?

Interested in your views!

Cheers

Hugh

As an owner of a 75D with auto assistance (AP), which is great, I fail to understand the need or desire for AP 2 with full autonomous driving.
Maybe it's just me but if you're spending a hundred grand on a sports car, don't you want to drive it yourself? What is the purpose of a heated steering wheel if you never need to touch it?
Just take a Uber taxi! A lot less expensive!

 

[Doubletap67]

Hey, at least you don't have to wait something like 10 months (or was it longer? I can't remember) with no AP functionality like the early AP1 buyers did...

What makes you think it won't be ten months?

 

[Doubletap67]

This is absolutely correct. I hope musk continues to set aggressive goals. Tesla coming just under their aggressive goals, means they still beat others who achieve their mediocre goals.

Tesla should continue to set aggressive goals, even if they still miss them repeatedly. If they start always achieving their goals, then we know they have become complacent and are aiming too low.

Nope. That's not how it works in a properly run outfit.

 

[Doubletap67]

Well, let's recall two things:

1 - AP1 took a full 12 months between hardware shipping and 7.0 being turned on in October 2015. That mean AP2 is rolling out on a much faster schedule than AP1 did.

2 - Remember, AP1 used a curated vision system trained by images annotated by human beings at Mobileye. As far as we know, Nvidia's solution is much less supervised learning powered by much more powerful neural nets. But it is a different system entirely. Amnon Shashua has publicly derided Nvidia's non-annotated learning approach several times at conferences. With Mobileye Tesla had a "vision in a box" kit ready to go on some level, but with Nvidia they are starting from zero. And despite this fact Tesla still seems to be rolling out AP2 on a faster schedule than AP1 was.



I think AP1 is amazing. I guess I'm easily amused and impressed.

Much faster schedule in what way? Two months with zero functionality is better than 12 months and AP1? We'll see I guess.

 

[oktane]

Maybe it's just me but if you're spending a hundred grand on a sports car, don't you want to drive it yourself?

Hate to break it to you, but a Tesla is not a sports car. Despite a very quick 0-60 time, I can assure you my $155,000 Tesla is not in the realm of sports cars. A very capable sedan, yes.

 

[Petra]

Maybe it's just me but if you're spending a hundred grand on a sports car, don't you want to drive it yourself?

I'm with @oktane on this one, the Model S is a large sedan that happens to be able to sprint to 60mph rather quickly. It is not, however, a sports car. Yes, it does handle reasonably well considering its tremendous weight, but it's still not a sports car.

What makes you think it won't be ten months?

Well, I did specify no functionality and software that provides at least limited functionality is already rolling out... you can't have 10+ months of no functionality if some functionality is already being patched in.

Feature/functional parity with the HW1 cars, on the other hand, that could take 10 months--who knows.

 

[Ucfjoe]

I think I'm one of the few people that wants a Tesla with the hope that it can get me to 90% autonomous driving faster than any other manufacturer. While the nonICE thing is great it's about fifth on my list of important vehicle features. I suspect the vast majority of folks on here spent more on Starbucks in 200x than on gas. I'm not anti-green just more anti time wasting in commutes.

 

[OBX John]

As an owner of a 75D with auto assistance (AP), which is great, I fail to understand the need or desire for AP 2 with full autonomous driving.
Maybe it's just me but if you're spending a hundred grand on a sports car, don't you want to drive it yourself? What is the purpose of a heated steering wheel if you never need to touch it?
Just take a Uber taxi! A lot less expensive!

Of course you want to drive it yourself. But if you like driving it so much that you won't give up the wheel in stop and go traffic, you are a better man than I. I can think of plenty of situations where taking a break from driving would be nice... can't wait for the first time my wife gives me her mischievous look from the passenger seat after AP2 is fully enabled...

 

[calisnow]

I think I'm one of the few people that wants a Tesla with the hope that it can get me to 90% autonomous driving faster than any other manufacturer. While the nonICE thing is great it's about fifth on my list of important vehicle features. I suspect the vast majority of folks on here spent more on Starbucks in 200x than on gas. I'm not anti-green just more anti time wasting in commutes.

I'm right there with ya.