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HW3

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This is of little interest to me.

When news articles appear about the following (in order of importance), I’ll care:

1. Actual, demonstrable steps towards level 4 autonomy that are made possible with HW3.

2. Actual, demonstrated upgrades of customer cars to HW3.

3. Tesla doing upgrades in each region in order by date of FSD package purchase. I have no business getting the upgrade before others who paid for it before me.
 
That’s about as fun as stapling my lips to the rectum of a person with giardia.
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The evidence provided in the article looks convincing enough to me. It should also be noted that the article only states that new S and X are getting HW3 installed from the factory and they haven’t seen any evidence that this is happening with Model 3 yet.

I agree with @run-the-joules that HW3 retrofits should be done in order of FSD purchase. I’d be very interested to know just how many HW3 retrofits Tesla will need to do. It is very likely that those who only purchased FSD in the last 2 weeks (like myself) may have to wait months for their HW3 install to be scheduled.
 
The evidence provided in the article looks convincing enough to me. It should also be noted that the article only states that new S and X are getting HW3 installed from the factory and they haven’t seen any evidence that this is happening with Model 3 yet.

I agree with @run-the-joules that HW3 retrofits should be done in order of FSD purchase. I’d be very interested to know just how many HW3 retrofits Tesla will need to do. It is very likely that those who only purchased FSD in the last 2 weeks (like myself) may have to wait months for their HW3 install to be scheduled.

I agree that they should do these in the order they were purchased. A lot of folks have been waiting a long time and put their money down well in advance of FSD being remotely real. They should get priority. Given that I am still waiting on the spoiler for my M3P 3 months post delivery and I know there are people waiting twice as long for that too, I imagine those of us that bought FSD in March have a good, long wait for HW3...
 
On all vehicle types it’s mounted inside the dashboard, passenger side. Above footwell, glove box area. On model3 it’s mounted directly to the firewall, and liquid cooled from frunk cooling tubes.

You can easily access it for a little peek, by removing a few clips in the passenger footwell. No special tools required, a butter knife does the trick
 
I was expecting this. Here are the estimates I posted 10-20 days ago. The first and second link also explains why the end of March was likely.

Here is what I would expect to happen next:
  • It's unlikely that any car delivered in Q1 will have HW3. My best guess is zero cars.
  • Tesla will keep quiet until they make the announcement between 10-17 April 2019.
  • I think today production switched from US to EU/Asia. It should switch back to the US around 10 May 2019 and US deliveries with HW3 should start around 17 May 2019. I think that's when we will start to see HW3 videos on Youtube in high numbers.
  • People who have Full Self-Driving will receive the HW3 computer swap for free. It is unclear whether there might be other hardware differences besides the Autopilot computer. See my message here.
 
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I shudder at the thought of taking a butter knife to my car. ;)
Try a plastic spudger instead.

We might have pictures of ours in a few days...

  • I think today production switched from US to EU/Asia. It should switch back to the US around 10 May 2019 and US deliveries with HW3 should start around 17 May 2019. I think that's when we will see HW3 videos on Youtube in high numbers.

AP3 cars (APH4) are already available in the US. We take delivery of ours this week.
 
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Or use your finger nails! :)

Wrt the actual retrofit procedure:

On S/X, replacing the Autopilot ECU shouldn't take very long. Perhaps half an hour or so, this will depend on the SC tech's experience, as well as the quality of the factory install. Back when AP2.0 was all the news, @kdday made an awesome post on how APE can be accessed. You basically have to remove the glovebox:
Inside the NVIDIA PX2 board on my HW2 AP2.0 Model S (with Pics!)

Also have to add some time for FW redeploy, paperwork and such.

On Model 3, replacing the computer is more involved... Like I said it's mounted to the firewall, and water cooled. Your SC would have to, at a minimum, remove the frunk bin (bucket), drain the coolant with special equipment and hoses, plug the coolant ports, loosen the nuts connecting the computer to the firewall, remove footwell trim, release harness clips and only then remove the computer from the inside.

Since the Model 3 has both Autopilot and MCU computer in the same sandwich assembly (they're both in the same encosure), M3 owners should also get a fresh MCU in the process :) (Honestly, though, I dunno if they've revised the MCU, so that's wild speculation on my part.)
 
It is going to be interesting to see how this works out...

I don't expect any HW3 updates until there is a released FSD feature that requires it.

Then once there is, the sequence of updates will depend on if the 2.0 cars need more than just a new computer, if so I'd expect them to focus on the more easily upgraded 2.5 cars first to maximise the impact of the time spent on the upgrades...