HW4 for true FSD

[Allx]

Edit: meant to title as question but can’t edit title

First , I should specify that I’m rooting for TSLA to solve FSD . Witnessing the progress first hand is why I signed up for the beta program. So far , the issues I’ve seen all seem surmountable with improved software but recently , an error reported by FSD makes me wonder about the hardware (and a quote I’d been hanging my hopes on for a while now). On a recent drive FSD reported that cameras were occluded (they weren’t ) . I thought the cameras in the model 3 were capable of using infrared but checking in with service it seems they need street lights

I really don’t see how cars have all the necessary hardware for fsd if night time driving poses a problem (unless fsd is reallly just meant for urban use).

Could this just be a matter of updating their firmware to better use the infrared spectrum ?

Has anyone else experienced this and has service provided any insight other than reporting it’s normal ?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

No one knows what is required since no one in the world has solved Level 5 driving.

Obviously we don’t need to be able to see in directions that are completely dark to drive perfectly safely so the error you are seeing is a non-issue. Wouldn’t worry about it. Certainly no need for IR. Least of the worries! Tesla just likes to keep you informed just in case there is an actual camera blockage!

Note it did not say anything about FSD being degraded. Worked as well as ever I imagine.

Just keep on enjoying perfect FSD, and disregard the warning messages, unless they are real. This is the way.

 

[Allx]

No one knows what is required since no one in the world has solved Level 5 driving.

Good point. That makes a certain 2019 tweet a little risky though

I really do want the company to succeed with fsd and as someone with a bit of skin in the game I hope that tweet doesn't become grounds for litigation if the hardware isn’t possible to retrofit on first gen 3s and Ys.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Good point. That makes a certain 2019 tweet a little risky though

I really do want the company to succeed with fsd and as someone with a bit of skin in the game I hope that tweet doesn't become grounds for litigation if the hardware isn’t possible to retrofit on first gen 3s and Ys.

I did add to my initial response above… I wouldn’t worry about it. There is of course going to be litigation. Already has been!

But it’s not a big deal, as Elon has said. Just have to keep on moving forward and see what happens. It’s a tiny part of their business, so hopefully they can make it work, and if not, they’ll be fine, because most likely no one else will either.

Overall people do way too much hand-wringing about FSD. The stuff yet to be in wide release is not something that most people really care about. The stuff that already is in wide release people really find quite useful, and for good reason.

Personally, as I was (I think successfully) fighting drifting off on the freeway at the end of a long drive yesterday, I thought that I just want to be able to fall asleep for a few minutes on the freeway at 80mph! No one appears to be even contemplating that! Much more useful than any of this other stuff to me, and likely to others as well, and not just for taking naps.

So nothing matters. Just don’t worry about it. Tesla will be fine - they have literally zero competition (in this area, at the moment).

 

[Tam]

...Could thus just be a matter of updating their firmware to better use the infrared spectrum ?

Has anyone else experienced this and has service provided any insight other than reporting it’s normal ?

Tesla has known this issue so they added 2 infrared LED for 2021 and later production of Model S and X.

It's not known whether the fix will be a retrofit for 3 and Y.

It's unknown whether new 3 and Y will get the same feature.

There won't be any driver when FSD is successful so there's no need to monitor a nonexistent driver at that time.

 

[Allx]

There won't be any driver when FSD is successful so there's no need to monitor a nonexistent driver at that time.

The error was referring to outside cameras . Did you mean cabin camera ?

 

[DanCar]

A couple of years after HW4 is out, there will be another post titled: HW5 for true FSD.

 

[Allx]

Personally, as I was (I think successfully) fighting drifting off on the freeway at the end of a long drive yesterday, I thought that I just want to be able to fall asleep for a few minutes on the freeway at 80mph!

That snooze is exactly why I hope the night vision gets resolved. If it can be done safely there’d be no shortage of people that would pay for that feature.

 

[Tam]

The error was referring to outside cameras . Did you mean cabin camera ?

My bad! Sorry. I answered the wrong issue.

 

[Allx]

My bad! Sorry. I answered the wrong issue.

No worries. Good to know about cabin though !

 

[Tam]

...infrared...

I haven't heard of any Autonomous Vehicle companies (Waymo, Cruise...) using infrared for self-driving.

It is not a bad idea, though. Most pedestrian fatalities happen in darkness (75% of 5,987 pedestrian facilities in the US in 2016). Infrared cameras could detect human heat far away, even in the fog.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That snooze is exactly why I hope the night vision gets resolved.

Fortunately the night vision does not need to get resolved to solve this. The car has headlights, thankfully, so does not have any need for night vision.

It is not a bad idea, though. Most pedestrian fatalities happen in darkness. Infrared cameras could detect human heat far away, even in fog.

I think it is probably fairly rare for pedestrian fatalities to occur that the headlights would not solve. It’s just tough for humans to react fast enough especially when tired, etc. Many of the pedestrian deaths are likely avoidable by an expert driver. I definitely don’t know the technical details, but my guess is only a very marginal benefit to infrared. Fog seems like it could be one of those scenarios where the benefit is much more than marginal, though extremely marginal overall (if IR is effective there).

Think about FSD as something people who want the value of the company to rapidly go up by 10-100x want to have succeed before anyone else. So, as long as Tesla executes, they’ll grow and have automation features like anyone else assuming those just gradually get phased in. Not a big deal if FSD doesn’t work in past cars, etc, etc. It’s just likely not that important, except for the rapid 10-100x market cap case (which seems like nearly zero chance of). Other than that it just isn’t very special.

 

[Allx]

I haven't heard of any Autonomous Vehicle companies (Waymo, Cruise...) using infrared for self-driving.

It is not a bad idea, though. Most pedestrian fatalities happen in darkness. Infrared cameras could detect human heat far away, even in fog.

I thought that’s why they use RCCB sensors but haven’t read up too much about it.
I’ve been hearing that high def radar might be making an appearance - likely good news for fog and snow storms etc.

 

[Tam]

I’ve been hearing that high def radar might be making an appearance - likely good news for fog and snow storms etc.

Yes, it's called 4-D radar (called by various names). Much cheaper than LIDAR. Some say it's just like LIDAR.

Autonomous Vehicles companies are using it.

Waymo: Imaging radar system

Aurora: Imaging radar solutions

MobilEye: Software-Defined Digital Imaging Radar

AutoX: Arbe's 4D Imaging Radar Platform

Cruise: High-resolution radars

 

[johnm]

Edit: meant to title as question but can’t edit title

First , I should specify that I’m rooting for TSLA to solve FSD . Witnessing the progress first hand is why I signed up for the beta program. So far , the issues I’ve seen all seem surmountable with improved software but recently , an error reported by FSD makes me wonder about the hardware (and a quote I’d been hanging my hopes on for a while now). On a recent drive FSD reported that cameras were occluded (they weren’t ) . I thought the cameras in the model 3 were capable of using infrared but checking in with service it seems they need street lights
View attachment 859428
I really don’t see how cars have all the necessary hardware for fsd if night time driving poses a problem (unless fsd is reallly just meant for urban use).

Could this just be a matter of updating their firmware to better use the infrared spectrum ?

Has anyone else experienced this and has service provided any insight other than reporting it’s normal ?

That message is coming from software. Someday they will [probably] update the software to understand that when it is dark out, the side cameras will sometimes see mostly darkness. A similar thing happens with fresh snow in the daylight. Driving next to a snow covered field, the camera sees nothing but white. The software complains.

 

[TresLA]

Edit: meant to title as question but can’t edit title

First , I should specify that I’m rooting for TSLA to solve FSD . Witnessing the progress first hand is why I signed up for the beta program. So far , the issues I’ve seen all seem surmountable with improved software but recently , an error reported by FSD makes me wonder about the hardware (and a quote I’d been hanging my hopes on for a while now). On a recent drive FSD reported that cameras were occluded (they weren’t ) . I thought the cameras in the model 3 were capable of using infrared but checking in with service it seems they need street lights
View attachment 859428
I really don’t see how cars have all the necessary hardware for fsd if night time driving poses a problem (unless fsd is reallly just meant for urban use).

Could this just be a matter of updating their firmware to better use the infrared spectrum ?

Has anyone else experienced this and has service provided any insight other than reporting it’s normal ?

Yes, that error started appearing after a more recent update, so it’s probably software driven rather than an actual issue with the hardware. Just did a cross country roadtrip with the FSD beta branch (i.e. - production NoAP that stopped using the radar on our 2018 Model 3) and that error would popup every once in awhile but only at night. I would check the camera it complained about (in our case, usually either the left front fender camera or the left B-pillar camera) and the image looked fine, wipe it clean just in case, and yet the error would pop up sometimes. So if the error started erroneously appearing after a software update, it’ll probably disappear with another software update that fixes/adjusts/lowers the threshold or whatever circumstances are causing that false error.

 

[zecar]

There's no reason to expect the first level 5 vehicles will be camera only. Also, there may no reason, and substantial downside, with releasing HW4 unless its clear it can achieve level 3+.

I assume the current FSD price is meant to discourage sales and potentially fund a possible future computer replacement.

 

[Tam]

...I assume the current FSD price is meant to discourage sales and potentially fund a possible future computer replacement.

In addition to a computer, the current 8 cameras can't see 360 degrees at a given time.

Its camera system is set up like human eyes: We can see the right curb from far away, but when we are close to the curb, we can't see it.

Human eyes don't have a problem with that because we learn that the curb is still there even if we can't see it when we turn at the right curb.

With the current FSD 8-camera setup, it's risky to ruin your tires when driving as well as in summon, auto park...

 

[2101Guy]

It’s a tiny part of their business, so hopefully they can make it work, and if not, they’ll be fine,

I thought Elon said something like, Tesla's financial future depends on solving FSD, no?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I thought Elon said something like, Tesla's financial future depends on solving FSD, no?

I mean, sure, a massively awesome financial future does depend on solving it. He goes on and on about it being a massive increase in value (most massive in history of the world or whatever) if it happens (which is probably true). But just because you don't have a massively awesome financial future doesn't exclude the possibility of Tesla being very successful financially. This is not contradictory at all!

It'll be fine. NBD. At this point it looks like something that will be incrementally solved, if at all.

And anyway the OP's issue here is a non-issue. The cameras don't need to be able to see when it's all black or all white (neither do we, after all)! There's nothing there that matters!!! Not an obstacle for Level 5. It's quite likely that if a car approached from that black direction, with headlights on, the car would see it. If no headlights, no big deal; human wouldn't see it either (maybe they'd hear it though).