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Hydrogen vs. Battery

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"as manufacturing scales up" this is the key. Not sure if you follow battery manufacturing capacity projections. There is none that is high enough to support all needs within 10 years. Even 20 years is a question without any breakthrough in chemistry.

It'll come down to relative cost. If something is slower ramping but will ultimately be simpler and cheaper, it sets a time-limit on the alternatives, which affects required rate of return, raises required costs, and can kill investor interest before the technology gets off the ground.
 
Based on my assessment I believe it is the investments in mining industry and relatedly the uncertainty of future chemistry is the one that holds them back.

I can't find any other logical reasons. If I knew that NMC and NCA BEV is the future and I'm sitting on a huge nickel reserve, I would start digging it out right now regardless of current demand.

Elon Musk says Tesla “might get into mining”

As we scale battery production to very high levels, we actually have to look further down the supply chain. We might get into the mining business. Maybe. A little bit, at least.​

Some of the tech being developed by The Boring Company might transfer to mining. I expect the goal would be similar to the original goal with the Tesla Roadster: to light a fire under a legacy industry that's moving too slowly.
 
Elon Musk says Tesla “might get into mining”

As we scale battery production to very high levels, we actually have to look further down the supply chain. We might get into the mining business. Maybe. A little bit, at least.​

Some of the tech being developed by The Boring Company might transfer to mining. I expect the goal would be similar to the original goal with the Tesla Roadster: to light a fire under a legacy industry that's moving too slowly.

Yes. I quoted a similar article earlier about this meeting.
And I also mentioned that they joined a partnership with several companies to get Nickel from Indonesia. Couple of months later Indonesia banned Nickel export. This is a tough business. I'm sure they are looking elsewhere as well. And the fact that Elon is looking into mining shows there is a problem there.
 
If we do the worst case analysis, then BEVs also won't look good compared to efficient hybrids.

This statement just does not compute!
My Tesla does ~100mpge and is "fueled" 100% by clean renewable energy, while the most efficient hybrid is still <50mpg and is fueled 100% by burning fossil fuels*. I do not see how could that be better ? In what universe and metric ???


* The fact that a hybrid is using regenerative breaking to recover some of the lost energy in breaking and then re-use it to accelerate later is nothing else then a fuel-efficiency improvement which is already expressed in its mpg rating. As long as all energy is input in the form of fossil fuels and not in the form of electricity plug-in, then it is 100% fossil fuel powered.
 
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This statement just does not compute!
My Tesla does ~100mpge and is "fueled" 100% by clean renewable energy, while the most efficient hybrid is still <50mpg and is fueled 100% by burning fossil fuels*. I do not see how could that be better ? In what universe and metric ???
I would say your knowledge is quite out of date. Here is a list of most efficient non-plugin gas cars. All the 6 at top have > 50 mpg.
Below is #1.
https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-with-the-best-gas-mileage
ioniq.JPG


Now , for yout 100 mpge Tesla, please add the CO2-e for that car and add the CO2-e for Ioniq, and do the math. Oh shoot! Tesla did not give you the CO2-e for your car, did it? That will be the best case comparison for your Tesla BEV.

Now assume the average grid mix of the world and recalculate. That's the expected benefit on average with widespread BEV adoption.

Then, do a worst case analysis. You charge your car, then drive it after 15 days every time and lose a bunch of electron in those 15 days. Then, assume that you are driving in -15 degrees C.
Then compare the mpge number against the most efficient hybrid.
QED.
 
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I would say your knowledge is quite out of date. Here is a list of most efficient non-plugin gas cars. All the 6 at top have > 50 mpg.
Below is #1.
https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-with-the-best-gas-mileage
View attachment 461184

Now , for yout 100 mpge Tesla, please add the CO2-e for that car and add the CO2-e for Ioniq, and do the math. Oh shoot! Tesla did not give you the CO2-e for your car, did it? That will be the best case comparison for your Tesla BEV.

Now assume the average grid mix of the world and recalculate. That's the expected benefit on average with widespread BEV adoption.

Then, do a worst case analysis. You charge your car, then drive it after 15 days every time and lose a bunch of electron in those 15 days.
Then compare the mpge number against the most efficient hybrid.
QED.

Nice FUD.

Here's some credible information: New Data Show Electric Vehicles Continue to Get Cleaner
 
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I would say your knowledge is quite out of date. Here is a list of most efficient non-plugin gas cars. All the 6 at top have > 50 mpg.
Below is #1.
https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-with-the-best-gas-mileage
View attachment 461184

Now , for yout 100 mpge Tesla, please add the CO2-e for that car and add the CO2-e for Ioniq, and do the math. Oh shoot! Tesla did not give you the CO2-e for your car, did it? That will be the best case comparison for your Tesla BEV.

Now assume the average grid mix of the world and recalculate. That's the expected benefit on average with widespread BEV adoption.

Then, do a worst case analysis. You charge your car, then drive it after 15 days every time and lose a bunch of electron in those 15 days. Then, assume that you are driving in -15 degrees C.
Then compare the mpge number against the most efficient hybrid.
QED.
How Clean is Your Electric Vehicle?
 
Based on my assessment I believe it is the investments in mining industry and relatedly the uncertainty of future chemistry is the one that holds them back.

I can't find any other logical reasons. If I knew that NMC and NCA BEV is the future and I'm sitting on a huge nickel reserve, I would start digging it out right now regardless of current demand.

Which would lower the price and make it more difficult to recover the expense off all that extra mining you just did. Mining is a balance between production and demand. That's why Katanga mining is shutting down a large part of their cobalt mine later this year, overproduction of cobalt caused the price to drop too much.
 
I guess I was too generous with my worst case analysis.
Imagine the electric car driver in West Viginia, Wyoming or North Dakota, where each KWh of electricity produces over 750 g of CO2. Colorado, with generous EV incentives and cold temps, is not far off with 649 g CO2/KWh.

electric_source.JPG

File:Carbon Intensity of Eletricity by State.svg - Wikimedia Commons
List of U.S. states by electricity production from renewable sources - Wikipedia

Poor guy parks his car outdoors and loses 10-15% of the charge overnight in cold 10 deg F. Over a couple of days, he loses 30-40% of the charge, with each KWh having already produced 800g of CO2.
Now, he drives in cold winter, only to get 500 Wh/mile, if he is lucky, from the charge that's left.
Then he loses 10% in other charging and discharging losses. So this earth saver is producing close to a kg of CO2 to drive a mile on electricity!
If he was driving a hybrid, he could go 40-50 miles with a gallon (accounting for winter losses), which is equivalent to 8.9 kg of CO2.

So, which one is better for this person?

Hydrogen also has no issue with vampire losses in cold temperature. Chilled hydrogen is happy hydrogen.
 
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I would say your knowledge is quite out of date. Here is a list of most efficient non-plugin gas cars. All the 6 at top have > 50 mpg.
Below is #1.
QED.

HAhaha, so you show the BEST to be 59mpg, and that has somehow proved that it is better than 100mpge ?
Oh, BTW, I'm sorry my number was wrong, just ballpark 100mpge, actually my Model 3 has 134mpge, so still way higher than DOUBLE the efficiency of your most efficient hybrid.

BTW, the same Ioniq in BEV version has 136mpge, so how did you prove that BEV is less efficient than hybrid ?
Man, when you are in a hole, you should really stop digging!
 
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Also.... for the umpteenth time....

EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX

Wind is ~25% of the mid-west grid but anyone charging off-peak at night will be closer to ~50%. Once we aggregate enough EVs for a robust demand response program it could easily be >90%.

Meanwhile electrolyzers are far to expensive to not be run 24/7 so H2 is 100% generated from grid mix AND so long as we have a H2 debt of ~10B kg/yr FCVs are effectively 100% powered by natural gas.
 
HAhaha, so you show the BEST to be 59mpg, and that has somehow proved that it is better than 100mpge ?
Oh, BTW, I'm sorry my number was wrong, just ballpark 100mpge, actually my Model 3 has 134mpge, so still way higher than DOUBLE the efficiency of your most efficient hybrid.

The same Ioniq in BEV version has 136mpge, so how did you prove that BEV is less efficient than hybrid ?
Man, when you are in a hole, you should really stop digging!
Already proved above! This mpge is a confusing metric. I think EPA created it to confuse the hell out of buyers.
A better number is miles/KWh or KWh per 100 miles. Let's take your Ioniq BEV example.
https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/what-is-mpge
For context, the 2018 Hyundai Ioniq Electric is rated at 25 kWh/100 mile.

I'll be generous and wrap up the cold weather driving (heat+defrost) + charge/discharge + vampire drain losses to 50%.
So that becomes 50 KWh for 100 miles. That is 0.9 * 50 kg of CO2 in W. Virginia; or 45 kg CO2!.
With the hybrid version, with winter losses and 50 mpg, 100 miles will burn 2 gallons of gas, equiv to 17.8 kg CO2.

Even if we take both at face value, with BEV at 100 miles/25 KWh, that's 22.5 kg CO2 in BEV vs. 15.34 kg CO2 in the bybrid @ 58 mpg to drive 100 miles. So, when will W. Virginia ban EVs for polluting the planet? ;)
 
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Already proved above! This mpge is a confusing metric. I think EPA created it to confuse the hell out of buyers.
A better number is miles/KWh or KWh per 100 miles. Let's take your Ioniq BEV example.
https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/what-is-mpge


I'll be generous and wrap up the cold weather driving (heat+defrost) + charge/discharge + vampire drain losses to 50%.
So that becomes 50 KWh for 100 miles. That is 0.9 * 50 kg of CO2 in W. Virginia; or 45 kg CO2!.
With the hybrid version, with winter losses and 50 mpg, 100 miles will burn 2 gallons of gas, equiv to 17.8 kg CO2.

Even if we take both at face value, with BEV at 100 miles/25 KWh, that's 22.5 kg CO2 in BEV vs. 15.34 kg CO2 in the bybrid @ 58 mpg to drive 100 miles. So, when will W. Virginia ban EVs for polluting the planet? ;)

Making up numbers doesn’t make them mean anything.

Here’s something credible:

https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-data-show-electric-vehicles-continue-to-get-cleaner
 
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Also.... for the umpteenth time....

EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX
EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX

Wind is ~25% of the mid-west grid but anyone charging off-peak at night will be closer to ~50%. Once we aggregate enough EVs for a robust demand response program it could easily be >90%.

Meanwhile electrolyzers are far to expensive to not be run 24/7 so H2 is 100% generated from grid mix AND so long as we have a H2 debt of ~10B kg/yr FCVs are effectively 100% powered by natural gas.



Grid emissions are higher at night here in California.

California ISO - Emissions
 
I'll be generous and wrap up the cold weather driving (heat+defrost) + charge/discharge + vampire drain losses to 50%.

If you continue pulling numbers out of your back-side, there is no point having a conversation.
I have driven my Tesla to ski resort in the winter at -20 degree C with fresh snow on the highway and still achieved 80% of rated EPA range, so your 50% number is complete BS. Proves you never actually driven an EV.

Plus, I already stated my EVs are charged 100% from renewable energy, there is 0 coal on the grid in Ontario since 2014.
So, when are they going to ban gasoline and hybrid cars in Ontario for polluting the streets ?
There have been several studies demonstrate that BEV has less pollution than gas cars even if you power the BEV by 100% coal generated electricity, however such "worst-case" never existed anywhere in the world anyway, so in fact its a wild fantasy of the oil industry FUD machines, not "worst-case".

You want to talk about worst case ?
Consider the diesel powered school buses idling for half an hour right in front of the school for picking up the kids. Poisoning the future directly in the mouth with the worst emission possible.
That's the worst case!