I admit it is selfish on my part but I hope now that he has published his ideas on the hyperloop that Elon gets back to innovating Tesla products. It appear there is still lots to be done with the 'X' and eventually (hopefully sooner than later) the Gen III. :wink:
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NigelM
Recovering Member
Nothing new in the idea; folks who have lived in Europe have been taking their cars straight onto the Eurotunnel to cross under the ocean between France and the U.K. since 1994.
Sometimes a great idea is a good one stolen and re-implemented. (BTW, those trains are all electric).
So after reading the new forbes article Hyperloop Update: Elon Musk Will Start Developing It Himself - Forbes it sounds as if there could be some long term benefit for Tesla Motors. Your looking at a the 10 year time frame. Im excited that I might get to ride in something like that one day.
edit: just realized this should have been posted in Long term thread. Feel free to move.
edit: just realized this should have been posted in Long term thread. Feel free to move.
marvinat0rz
Member
Come on, guys. One thing is speculating in Tesla's revenues regarding potential sales of a mass-market vehicle 10 years out. This is fully warranted, and skeptics are wrong to dismiss such calculations. Thinking big and far ahead is an area where traditional investment sense ("value investing") has failed time and time again, providing excellent investment opportunities in, for instance, Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Google and Tesla. But doing anything more than idle thought experiments regarding how Tesla might participate in the construction of an engineering concept which is almost science fiction, is at best a waste of time. If there was a practical way to conduct such a bet, I would be willing to bet at that the Hyperloop will never be built ("never" meaning "at least not in 20 years", which is often a sort of horizon in science).
I do agree, DaveT, that the Hyperloop is a great example of the kind of big engineering ideas that Musk has the balls to seriously consider, and also that this is something which should be reassuring if you are an investor. It isn't unique among engineers to think big and out-of-the-box like this. Even personally, I've done some calculations and thought about the future of aviation regarding energy-efficient and feasible personal air transport. Where Musk does differ significantly from any other engineer I know of today, is that he seriously considers and has in fact been able to be involved and execute in some such ideas on a very grand scale. Particularly SpaceX, but also Tesla, were in the camp of "it can't be done" only a few years ago. In my lifetime, this is unprecedented. But hopefully this will inspire the current generation of scientists, investors and engineers to dare spending energy on big projects. Hardware is getting easier, and I think we are going to see more of this in the future. Meanwhile, I'd say don't beat a winning horse
I do agree, DaveT, that the Hyperloop is a great example of the kind of big engineering ideas that Musk has the balls to seriously consider, and also that this is something which should be reassuring if you are an investor. It isn't unique among engineers to think big and out-of-the-box like this. Even personally, I've done some calculations and thought about the future of aviation regarding energy-efficient and feasible personal air transport. Where Musk does differ significantly from any other engineer I know of today, is that he seriously considers and has in fact been able to be involved and execute in some such ideas on a very grand scale. Particularly SpaceX, but also Tesla, were in the camp of "it can't be done" only a few years ago. In my lifetime, this is unprecedented. But hopefully this will inspire the current generation of scientists, investors and engineers to dare spending energy on big projects. Hardware is getting easier, and I think we are going to see more of this in the future. Meanwhile, I'd say don't beat a winning horse
kevin99
Member
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements
The effect of hyperloop on TSLA:
1. It strengthens the longs that they bet on the right visionary CEO.
2. The shorts will more likely to give up their short position.
I think #2 is more material than #1. We could see some effect of it tomorrow.
As I mentioned in the hyperloop thread, a big part of investment thesis is invest on the people. Today Elon shows me something in him that I haven't realized.
The effect of hyperloop on TSLA:
1. It strengthens the longs that they bet on the right visionary CEO.
2. The shorts will more likely to give up their short position.
I think #2 is more material than #1. We could see some effect of it tomorrow.
As I mentioned in the hyperloop thread, a big part of investment thesis is invest on the people. Today Elon shows me something in him that I haven't realized.
So, I've got another angle on how Hyperloop can help TSLA's stock price.
I can imagine the "short TSLA" movement will take this opportunity to twist the Hyperloop announcement. I can imagine articles coming out that read "Hyperloop is Hyper-Hoopla" and "Hyperloop to distract Elon Musk from Tesla" and "Hyperloop to shrink Tesla's profits." The main nonsensical arguments will be the following:
1. Elon Musk is a distracted visionary. This makes it difficult for him to keep focused on Tesla. Thus, Gen III likely won't happen or will be a failure.
2. Hyperloop prototype will consume a lot of money and engineers from Tesla, thus increasing expenses and reducing profit.
3. Elon Musk is getting bored with Tesla. He might quit.
etc...
Anyway, you get the story. This actually might confuse people. In other words, the Hyperloop announcement can be divisive in a way - some people love it, some people hate it. So, it can attract long-term believers in Elon Musk the CEO. But it can also attract more shorts (or at least encourage people who are shorting to keep at it). Of course, some shorts might cover and join the believer camp. But new people might join the short camp.
In summary, it's kind of a twisted way at looking at things but Hyperloop can be twisted by the "short TSLA" movement for their benefit, which ultimately benefits the stock price sooner or later because they need to cover eventually. I think Tesla is beyond a "tipping point" where the shorts can successfully depress the stock price (they seem to only be able to cause dips/corrections at best). Thus, it seems like the more shorts, the better the long-term outlook for TSLA stock price is. The large short interest artificially inflates the # shares available, thus artificially reducing the value of each share. But this leads to the inevitable scenario when short interest eventually decreases and the stock price is propelled to new levels as shares return to a normal supply (vs an inflated supply with high short interest).
In summary, Hyperloop can help TSLA stock price by 1) attracting or firming up LT believers in Elon, and 2) attracting doubters (and resolve the will of those short).
I can imagine the "short TSLA" movement will take this opportunity to twist the Hyperloop announcement. I can imagine articles coming out that read "Hyperloop is Hyper-Hoopla" and "Hyperloop to distract Elon Musk from Tesla" and "Hyperloop to shrink Tesla's profits." The main nonsensical arguments will be the following:
1. Elon Musk is a distracted visionary. This makes it difficult for him to keep focused on Tesla. Thus, Gen III likely won't happen or will be a failure.
2. Hyperloop prototype will consume a lot of money and engineers from Tesla, thus increasing expenses and reducing profit.
3. Elon Musk is getting bored with Tesla. He might quit.
etc...
Anyway, you get the story. This actually might confuse people. In other words, the Hyperloop announcement can be divisive in a way - some people love it, some people hate it. So, it can attract long-term believers in Elon Musk the CEO. But it can also attract more shorts (or at least encourage people who are shorting to keep at it). Of course, some shorts might cover and join the believer camp. But new people might join the short camp.
In summary, it's kind of a twisted way at looking at things but Hyperloop can be twisted by the "short TSLA" movement for their benefit, which ultimately benefits the stock price sooner or later because they need to cover eventually. I think Tesla is beyond a "tipping point" where the shorts can successfully depress the stock price (they seem to only be able to cause dips/corrections at best). Thus, it seems like the more shorts, the better the long-term outlook for TSLA stock price is. The large short interest artificially inflates the # shares available, thus artificially reducing the value of each share. But this leads to the inevitable scenario when short interest eventually decreases and the stock price is propelled to new levels as shares return to a normal supply (vs an inflated supply with high short interest).
In summary, Hyperloop can help TSLA stock price by 1) attracting or firming up LT believers in Elon, and 2) attracting doubters (and resolve the will of those short).
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I am not sure if you were trying to be ironic in this statement, but let me add some others in case you are being serious.
I bet that an electric car for the mass market will never be built.
I bet that a private company will never build a better rocket than an entire government.
etc.
Elon is quoted saying that he could probably do it in a 1-2 year time frame, but he is focused on Tesla so it would be ~3-4. Majority of the technologies in Tesla/SpaceX and this Hyperloop overlap. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hyperloop becomes a cross collaboration of some special team between the companies... oh and SolarCity can fund the panels.
To keep my post on topic, this proves that Elon is committed to Tesla. It also shows people that there is some serious brain power behind the man that is Elon Musk. I read through the paper and I'll admit the science part threw me off, but he thought of everything from a product, scientific, fault planning, and financial way.
To keep my post on topic, this proves that Elon is committed to Tesla. It also shows people that there is some serious brain power behind the man that is Elon Musk. I read through the paper and I'll admit the science part threw me off, but he thought of everything from a product, scientific, fault planning, and financial way.
Hyperloop ties all of the Elon ETF together, it takes elements from Tesla, Solar City, and Space X. If the hyperloop finds its way under the Tesla umbrella, it practically removes any upward limit to the growth potential of the company.
Apple is a great example of a company that hit a brick wall. In my opinion they have lost their competitive edge, other companies are catching up in style and build quality and the iPhone is something my grandpa uses (read its getting lame). They make boatloads of money but the most exciting product coming out.... is a watch (yay!). Well the market has awarded them for this.
Tesla has huge potential in the automotive industry, but what happens when they reach a point where they have saturated the market and don't have massive growth outlook? (maybe that is at a $2000 stock price, but why stop there). Well they turn into Apple and get handed a p/e like other car companies. The hyperloop shows that they can innovate like Google (self driving cars, Google Fiber, balloon wifi etc) and this gives me amazing confidence as a shareholder that the sky is the limit.
By the way, the hyperloop announcement is one of the top news stories around the web right now, like Reddit and tech blogs (where the next generation of car buyers are hanging out). You better believe that this is going to stir discussion about Tesla and the Model S.
Top posting on Reddit right now:
"One very interesting bit: it uses the same type of motor technology as the Tesla S (just in a different configuration) placed every 70 miles. Guess what that means?Whatever technology you're using to power those motors can also be tapped into to create a charging station for your Tesla every 70 (or less) miles, right along the highway. Get the state/feds to fund the construction, then your private company taps into the infrastructure to develop electric "filling stations." As more Hyperloops are built, a nationwide network of electric filling stations is automatically created without a private company having to foot the bill for infrastructure development.
This guy is a damn genius. Seriously this is the type of thinking that makes the electric automobile a viable future product. Piggy-backing the infrastructure is a very, very good business idea."
Whether that statement is true or not is moot, what matters is it is opening eyes. So this helps TSLA in the short term (free advertising) and long term (unbounded p/e)
Top posting on Reddit right now:
"One very interesting bit: it uses the same type of motor technology as the Tesla S (just in a different configuration) placed every 70 miles. Guess what that means?Whatever technology you're using to power those motors can also be tapped into to create a charging station for your Tesla every 70 (or less) miles, right along the highway. Get the state/feds to fund the construction, then your private company taps into the infrastructure to develop electric "filling stations." As more Hyperloops are built, a nationwide network of electric filling stations is automatically created without a private company having to foot the bill for infrastructure development.
This guy is a damn genius. Seriously this is the type of thinking that makes the electric automobile a viable future product. Piggy-backing the infrastructure is a very, very good business idea."
Whether that statement is true or not is moot, what matters is it is opening eyes. So this helps TSLA in the short term (free advertising) and long term (unbounded p/e)
The lack of momentum of the stock got me a bit antsy and thinking of halving my position. Then I read the hyperloop PDF and remembered ...oh yeah that's why I invested. I pictured elon drinking his morning coffee reading the paper, seeing the bullet train idea, getting very annoyed, then providing a very real alternative, better solution. That, coupled with his genuiness, and honesty makes me want to support tesla more, not less.
Lets not forget that he has surrounded himself with brilliant hard-workers as well. I don't care who you are one person can't fully exercise an idea on this scale, let alone follow through with it in the end. All the more reason TSLA is a good long term investment, not only is the leader making smart and bold decisions but he is surrounded with people who can get the job done
kevin99
Member
Here is the direct link:
Elon Musk has unveiled new details about the hyperloop, a new (super fast) form of transportation. : technology
Scanning the comments, it is overwhelmingly people overwhelmed by the scale the thoughts goes into the hyperloop. That is impressively positive given it is a wild crowd there.
I really think my early comment about " 2. The shorts will more likely to give up their short position" would manifest as early as tomorrow, or perhaps take a few days to digest. But the short will give up and realize more that Elon is not the guy to bet against.
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Being an aerospace and automotive engineer myself, I think this is doable. This will take some time to develop into a mature model, some work left on the actual technology, operational specifics, safety, and reliability/maintenance aspects. Elon is right, he should build a sub-scale demonstrator to sell the idea to the state of Ca. Above all political will and Elon playing his cards right with state of Ca. Cost will likely overrun a certain percentage over the $6 billion. This is the next gen infrastructure that Obama can spend his fed funds on, California to pioneer new tech and be the test bed, as usual, which is great for jobs here (to start out with). Given Elon's track record there is no reason to doubt he will not succeed with this project if he can start working on this after Gen 3 is in production. Tesla's short term stock price can get a nice bump if we see state of Ca requesting a detailed proposal.
sorry I should clarify. I absolutely think this could be doable and am really impressed with the level of research and problem solving that went into it. I was talking to my wife about it and the main thing that jumped out st her is that Elon chose to do all this research and make it public. Sure he left the door open to take on the project himself down the road, but he wanted to make this public knowledge purely for the benefit of the whole. There may very well be financial interests for Tesla, Solar, and SpaceX but that seems like a secondary goal.
I didn't mean at all that it seems far fetched, just that Elon doesn't deserve all the credit here
I'm sure he did plenty of brainstorming with people from Tesla and SpaceX to develop the idea to this level
jeff_adams
Member
Ideas like this attract unbelievable talent. His companies already have lots of people begging for a job, but ideas of this magnitude take it to another level.
For genius' around the world, this is like reading something in a comic book and making it happen in real life. Sort of like the Buck Rogers comics where rockets would land vertically on fins. Elon is not just dreaming about the possibilities, he's making them realities.
Norse
Active Member
WOW!!!! I love that video
Regarding hyperloop and that it wont happen. I think we are forgetting US Hodtory and all its pioneering. It will happen. And imagen all the politicians who wants to stand beside the famous Elon Musk!
marvinat0rz
Member
It's a good thing that there is skepticism and negativity. Remember that this skepticism is priced into the stock. We need shorts and haters just to make sure we're not in our heads creating a completely unrealistic dream scenario and pricing the stock as if it was guaranteed to happen. Seeing so much negativity in the face of a high stock price is reassuring.
Do you think that this hyperloop annoucement is the beginning of "Musk Industries" (think "Stark Industries")? With all this talent gathering and possible convergence between SpaceX, SolarCity and Tesla one might decide to join the three together to form a new company... The shares of Solar and Tesla would be converted to shares of Musk Industries and my question (more in line with this topic's subject) is what would happen to all these shorts?
EM has mentioned before that he has been thinking of possibly creating a parent company to hold all his separate entities so that they can better work together. Probably will be done by the time he has his Mars Transporters ready. Hopefully someone from the press will ask him about that parent company idea to see whether he has any updates on that
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