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Hypothesis - Tesla only builds AWD Model 3 starting in July

Will Tesla only build dual motor Model 3 until backlog is exhausted?

  • Yes

    Votes: 13 16.0%
  • No

    Votes: 68 84.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    81

voip-ninja

Give me some sugar baby
Mar 15, 2012
4,227
5,354
Colorado
I have a hypothesis that Tesla will switch production 100% to DM cars starting in July until all AWD back-log is exhausted.

My rationale for this is that Tesla will make higher profit margins on Dual Motor and P cars. It also means no line split, no switchover to run RWD cars on one shift and then DM cars on another shift that same week.

Of course, I could be dead wrong on all of this, wouldn't be the first time!
 
  • Like
Reactions: jimmyjohn

TT97

Active Member
Aug 6, 2017
2,179
3,004
Los Angeles
Agree with OP.

Demand is off the charts.
Simplicity.
Higher GM rates,
Safer.
One Tesla - All D.
Precedence with S and X,
The yeahs will overwhelm the whiners.

Which ones are the whiners? The ones that keep going on about Dual Motors?

If they do go D only, I'm glad I ordered mine already. I've owned both (other makes) and have always preferred the way RWD drove though the twisties.

So, if Tesla decides to go single D line to avoid line switchovers - wouldn't that mean no P version either?
 
  • Like
Reactions: DR61
I think that they'll make as many dual motor models as they can until the backlog catches up, but for them to do nothing but DM you're assuming that they'll have the capacity to do so. Its taking quite a while to scale production up to 5,000 units a week, we have no reason to assume they'll be able to produce 5,000 cars worth of front drive units, front CV joints, front axles, ect from the word go. It would be foolish not to produce RWD cars also if the main line has more production capacity than they have parts available for DM.
 
No way. They might do it in batches - one week AWD, next week RWD, next week P, or perhaps AWD will just be a software limited P, so it's the same hardware. But I don't see them making exclusively Dual Motor configurations. They could go as far as something like 2 weeks AWD, 1 week RWD, so that they work through the AWD backlog quickly - since a lot of early invites have deferred. But I just don't see them switching over entirely. Elon would have mentioned that, IMO. He only said that they wouldn't add AWD until they reach 5k/wk capacity. I just don't see them not still outputting a lot of RWD.
 
I don't mind waiting until 2019 for a $35,000 Model 3. However, I would have to purchase two cars instead of one.

Since I can get a new CAV sticker in 2019 for my existing 2017 Model S, it would be best for me to wait until early 2022 to purchase a new Tesla so another CAV decal will allow use to September 30, 2025. It's all explained at this web page:

California’s Clean Air Decals | California Air Resources Board
 
I don't mind waiting until 2019 for a $35,000 Model 3. However, I would have to purchase two cars instead of one.

Since I can get a new CAV sticker in 2019 for my existing 2017 Model S, it would be best for me to wait until early 2022 to purchase a new Tesla so another CAV decal will allow use to September 30, 2025. It's all explained at this web page:

California’s Clean Air Decals | California Air Resources Board
My guess is that by then there will so many EVs in California they will discontinue the program or the stickers will be useless anyway.
 

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