hypothetical Question-Life Span of a 3?

[djplong]

I'd like to think the Model 3 will be a step up from my Camry.

I bought the Camry in November 2006 and it was 5 years old with some 70,000+ miles on the odometer. I've since put 225,000 more on.

One belt went about 8 years ago. FOUR catalytic catalytic converters failed (the car has two) and I'm not paying to replace this one (failing emissions inspection) when I'm this close to having an EV.

No transmission problems. Some wear and tear on the suspension (bushings mostly). But my Camry is starting to 'feel it's age'. Of the alleged $3500 in repairs ($1500 of those for emissions) that my car needs/wants, *all* of the items (like the cracked radiator) are NOT on a Tesla. I'm not about to spend over a third of the money I've saved for my Model 3 down payment on a month or two of life for my Camry (it's still running like a champ and getting 30MPG)

So I'm expecting at least 10 years out of my '3'. Then I might want a used "S" coming off a lease that has a Starlink system in it so that it's always net-connected. If Elon says "streaming is the way to go" (as opposed to satrad), I need to be able to stream when there's no cell signal.

 

[israndy]

I did see a video on YouTube where they thought the M3 didn't have enough environmental sealing to keep out the snow mud and rain. That might be the Achille's heel for the M3.

-Randy

 

[gregincal]

People talk about a 10yo car like it is "old" and to the average Tesla owner it is, but a quick googling revealed the average age of a car in the USA was 11.5years in 2015 and there is a solid trend of vehicles lasting longer and longer. Any vehicle that routinely died by 10yo is a POS.
In the past my vehicle of choice was mid-90s GM b-bodies this was the Caprice and Roadmaster both sedans and wagons and had a lot of friends that are even still playing with them. That was a 1970s chassis, with an 1980s transmission with some 90s electronics added and a modest redesign of the smallblock Chevy from 1958. Body rot or deer killed those cars for me not major mechanical issues. One wagon went off for demolition derby at 299k. Had a power steering leak $40 part but was getting too rusty to bother with because Wisconsin uses a LOT of salt. I still have a highly modified Caprice sedan in the garage.

Those who talk about how awful ICE are and how they will be gone in a decade are not being rational. Heck people still love a 1968 cars and those are crap by every standard, and even the V8s which nostalgia tells folks were amazing are not powerful by today's standards.

My parents rarely buy cars that are much less than 10 years old. They currently own a 12 year old Camry, a 17 year old truck and a 23 year old Previa. I just sold my 5 year old Model S with 50K miles, but it sure felt like it had many more years to run given how few problems it had and how little the battery had degraded (6%). The problem with old luxury cars though is that the repairs start to be more than the car is worth (like a failure in the air suspension).

 

[RayK]

I dunno -- 2013 Model S isn't a bad car, even today. In 5 years model 3 might very well be equivalent, only cheaper...

Back about two decades ago, I subscribed to the theory that the best laptop you could buy was always going to be priced about $2K. Yes they got faster and had more memory as the years went on, but the price was still around $2K. It's only now after 20 years that the price point has dropped to between $1K and $1.5K. Advances in technology and manufacturing have contributed to lowering the cost on the semiconductor components, as well as the automation involved in their construction. I think this same theory will apply to the Model 3 going forward. Until it becomes obsoleted by another model/design, the base price will hover around $35K. Hopefully more options will become "standard" as time marches on.

I'm almost going on my 18th year of ownership of a 2000 BMW 323i. While the motor/drivetrain is still quite reliable (@ 199K miles), the paint job is crap (the clear coat has been peeling off for many years), the rear driver-side door leaks during a heavy rain (the vapor barrier, probably), the stitching on the leather seats is unraveling, the four window regulators have each been replaced (a couple of them twice), the rear speakers are shot (have replacements; just waiting for summer), the windshield washer reservoir cracked last month and now can't hold any fluid, etc., etc. In a few years I'll be retired. The Model 3 will probably be the last new car I buy. I'll be quite happy if it's still driveable after the same 18 years the BMW has been.

 

[jjh1234]

I'm sure there will always be a market for used electric cars, but I think as they age and fall behind technically, they will take a larger than normal value hit. I think all it all hinges on battery technology. If there is a significant breakthrough in capacity, weight, charging speed, cost, etc., then we will see a sharp drop in the value of older models. So far, this has not happened yet, so the values have not decreased dramatically. Also, I think spare parts could become a factor, especially with Tesla's parts policy. I know the Roadster was limited production, but if you read that forum, there are already some parts that are unavailable new and the refurbished ones are not holding up. This is unfortunately the price we pay for fast moving technology.

 

[Dogwhistle]

It’ll be the 10 year old used Model 3s that convert the rest of the masses to electric vehicles! $5-$10K for a 300 mile Tesla? That’s probably STILL getting software updates? Hell yeah.

 

[david_42]

I put 204,000 miles on a Honda Civic, my 2004 Sprinter is at 124,000, our Kia hit 116,000 last month. Living on the West Coast rust hasn't been a problem on any of them. I expect a Model 3 will last at least 300,000, although the battery performance will degrade.

 

[tpoltron]

It’ll be the 10 year old used Model 3s that convert the rest of the masses to electric vehicles! $5-$10K for a 300 mile Tesla? That’s probably STILL getting software updates? Hell yeah.

My kid is 8 and I was just chatting with my wife that if order the M3 now that its likely the first car we'd pass on to our 8 year old. I guess that means I'm reasonably positive.

 

[IdaX]

My kid is 8 and I was just chatting with my wife that if order the M3 now that its likely the first car we'd pass on to our 8 year old. I guess that means I'm reasonably positive.

My 8-year-old has already claimed the 3 we confirmed last month as his college car. He's optimistic I think but still, the safety does appeal...

 

[cwerdna]

I think Tesla stated their new drive units could do 1 million miles.

Source?

For some context, Lifespan/Operating costs has pointers to some high mileage Priuses.

 

[buttershrimp]

I mentioned engines because so of Tesla owners delude themselves into believing engines are failure prone and they can be if you buy high output small engines but adequately sized engines last about forever, I have personal experience with several Chevy V8s over 200K and one over 300k.
They want to focus on how reliable the electric drive unit is.
You are right though that stuff often is not the thing that takes cars off the road, repeated small repairs make it not worthwhile. Electric door handles, auto folding mirrors, all digital user interfaces, resistance heating, battery dependent on AC system etc. all leaves a lot of room for other failures that could make these expensive to own when older.
Bet many of us had cars when young and poor where we ignored failed AC because it wasn't critical, or a heater fan knob that didn't work on all positions, or auto leveling rear suspension that failed but that was just supplemental bladder on the shocks, it wasn't actual air suspension.

There is a ton of stuff that can and will fail on Teslas and the blind faithful wont acknowledge that. At what age/mileage that stuff will begin to fail in quantity I hope we have a long wait to find out but nobody knows.

I have enough faith I bought a P85 out of warranty, so koolaid drinkers please don't take what I have said as bashing, it is just level headed thinking not baseless optimism.

You aren't factoring in the fact that simply owning and driving a Tesla cancels out even the most costly of repairs. It's that good. At least my car is. I don't know if I'd feel that way if it weren't a P100D, but every Tesla is so damn impressive. I wasn't expecting to find that I've purchased the best vehicle on the planet. I expected to be impressed, but 1 year and 20,000 miles later, I'm MORE impressed. What a phenomenal achievement by Mr. Musk and company.

 

[RayK]

Well, yes, you don't have the problem of repairing blown piston rings, or apex seals (had a turbo RX-7 a lifetime ago), or a cracked block, or smoked clutch. You basically replace all of the that with the unknown battery life (and cost to replace it) and electric motor MTBF.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I mentioned engines because so of Tesla owners delude themselves into believing engines are failure prone and they can be if you buy high output small engines but adequately sized engines last about forever, I have personal experience with several Chevy V8s over 200K and one over 300k.
They want to focus on how reliable the electric drive unit is.
You are right though that stuff often is not the thing that takes cars off the road, repeated small repairs make it not worthwhile. Electric door handles, auto folding mirrors, all digital user interfaces, resistance heating, battery dependent on AC system etc. all leaves a lot of room for other failures that could make these expensive to own when older.
Bet many of us had cars when young and poor where we ignored failed AC because it wasn't critical, or a heater fan knob that didn't work on all positions, or auto leveling rear suspension that failed but that was just supplemental bladder on the shocks, it wasn't actual air suspension.

There is a ton of stuff that can and will fail on Teslas and the blind faithful wont acknowledge that. At what age/mileage that stuff will begin to fail in quantity I hope we have a long wait to find out but nobody knows.

I have enough faith I bought a P85 out of warranty, so koolaid drinkers please don't take what I have said as bashing, it is just level headed thinking not baseless optimism.

First of all, full disclosure...I LOVE KoolAid...usually on a hot summer day...in a glass...with plenty of ice. Used in your context...not so much. I think to imply that people on here look at Tesla with that frame of mind is misleading at best...bordering on insulting. I think the VAST majority here are educated, relatively intelligent people who find themselves in a position to acquire a brand of product that in the past has been well out of their financial means. They have researched all of the plethora or information, both positive and negative, available on the subject and after weighing all the pros and cons, have come to the decision that the Model 3 fits their wants and needs and are excited by the prospect.

I think the number of people that are going into this with the mindset that it is all going to be glitter and unicorns you could probably count on one hand (ok, maybe two). LOL! The point being that we all are well aware of the potential for setbacks, especially with this being a new product from the ground up. That said however, I think most of us are all confident that Tesla will fix problems that arise and, when take in its entirety, can't see purchasing a different vehicle at this point in time.

...at least that is how I see it. I guess time will tell. I think I'll go get a glass of KoolAid now. Grape I think...or maybe Orange. Yeah, I'm in an Orange kind of mood today.

Dan

 

[djplong]

I got my driver's license in 1978.

Here is a list of things that I've had to repair that ARE on my forthcoming Tesla: Suspension parts. Head/Tail/Turning lights. Windshield wipers. Tires. Brakes. Door handle. "Engine computer" (different from Tesla's whole-car computer, but it's a computer). Body parts. Battery (12V). Air conditioning compressor.

Here is a list of things that I've had to repair that are NOT on my forthcoming Tesla: Valves. Head gasket. Exhaust manifold. Fuel filter. Oil changes. Transmission. Clutch plate & pressure pad. Exhaust pipes. Mufflers. Catalytic converters (x4). Fuel tank (yes, the whole tank). Fuel pump. Several other emissions-related parts who's names I don't remember. Water pump. Radiator. Plug wires. Sparkplugs. Distributor cap. Carbuerator. Fuel injectors. Air filter. Camshaft. Fan and other "serpentine" belts. Timing belt/chain. Window crank. Ignition solenoids. Sunroof motor. Vaccuum hoses.

That's what I can think of off the top of my head.

Any time I think about whether or not I'm stretching my budget to get the "First produced" Model 3 (I should be in the next batch of invites), I try to remember this list.

 

[jbcarioca]

Wise thinking. Whenever we think of what can go wrong with a Tesla almost all of it is also on ICE. Many of the most failure-prone parts of a Tesla are industry-standard items, as are the maintenance elements:

air-conditioning compressors, various motors for fans, windows, steering, etc, door handles, alignment, tires (probably the most expensive maintenance for any Tesla), suspension parts (air or coils).

All of those are ordinary maintenance needs for long lived, high usage vehicles. Tesla is like everyone else for those.

Batteries, motors- they have eight year warranties. anyway, even if not, replacing a battery will be less expensive than would be ICE maintenance and overhaul. Not to mention that the replacement battery, if needed, will instantly make new performance.

 

[SSedan]

Insurance costs put a big dent in fuel savings, the idea they are so cheap to own is not terribly honest.
47-4900lbs is likely going to cause extra suspension wear.

The motor/gearbox assembly in the current revision may well outlast an ICE with their simplicity, but the battery is unknown and nothing special about the rest of the car to suggest unusual longevity.

 

[voip-ninja]

If you take great care of a 3, can the car last 200,000 miles, 300,000 miles or even more?

Any car can last 200K to 300K miles if you take "great care of it".

Taking great care of it would mean keeping it garaged, keeping up with the exterior for any corrosion and gasket problems as well as doing all of the preventative maintenance items.

On an internal combustion vehicle over 200,000-300,000 miles you will be looking at several expensive mechanical items, on an electric car you hypothetically have to look at eventually doing something with the battery if it fails outside of the warranty or loses enough charge to meet your needs as a daily driver.

 

[asus389]

At least for a bit while the technology is changing/advancing at a fast pace, my guess is that like an early iPhone you won’t want one that is more than 5 years old. At some point Tesla will stop offering software updates either because the bugs are more or less fixed in those hardaware revisions or the hardware doesn’t support the newer/more demanding software. However, if despite this, you are happy with the current functionality, it should, in theory be less prone to failure than the average ICE car. Less moving parts, no combustion heat cycles, no oil changes, no steering fluid, no coolant leaks, etc basically less stuff to break.

 

[internalaudit]

I don't think mileage driven can be taken in isolation from the age of the car.

Most BEV owners will be predisposed to driving a lot more miles, probably one of the reasons they went with a BEV, which is usually cheaper to run where electricity costs is not that expensive.

It would be remarkable how the world order of car reliability ranking could change significantly with pioneers like Nissan (and we can hope Tesla) and Hyundai/Kia rising up the ranks (beating Lexus/Toyota) because other car makers didn't make BEV in reasonable numbers.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Insurance costs put a big dent in fuel savings, the idea they are so cheap to own is not terribly honest.
47-4900lbs is likely going to cause extra suspension wear.

The motor/gearbox assembly in the current revision may well outlast an ICE with their simplicity, but the battery is unknown and nothing special about the rest of the car to suggest unusual longevity.

...and there's nothing to suggest unusual wear either so why focus on the potential negative result? Bottom line, the oldest Tesla isn't old enough to come up with statistics you are wanting so as you once put it...time will tell.

Dan