I am now planning to get the full self-driving option and here is why

[R.S]

Right now, pre-paying for FSD gives you nothing. But when FSD is released, you will get an OTA update that will make your car full self-driving. You will be able to input almost any destination and the car will drive itself to that destination without any intervention on your part.

You will get about 10 upgrades. FSD will not suddenly happen. FSD will most likely gradually diverge from EAP. They will add more and more functionality, like traffic sign recognition, traffic light recognition, level 3 on highways and so on. There is no sense in keeping it back until it's full level 5.

So IMO cars with FSD will see gains sooner, not just when Tesla finally has a level 5 system, which I think will take a long time, unless they add some more sensors and computer power to existing cars ASAP. So AP3 will reach FSD sooner than AP2.5 and AP2.5 sooner than AP2.0

 

[diplomat33]

There is no sense in keeping it back until it's full level 5.

Agreed. But I think Tesla is holding back until they can deliver level 4.

 

[Saghost]

Agreed. But I think Tesla is holding back until they can deliver level 4.

I hope not. A true freeway level 3 that can handle folks cutting in and road debris, requires no attention most of the time (and thus no steering nags) and has maybe a ten second response period would be worth quite a lot to me - it'd probably make me replace the car, even if it was restricted to freeways (with the promise of more later, of course.)

 

[Ciaopec]

Hmm, I actually think the only reason to get fsd now is that the hardware probably isn’t powerful enough so Tesla will remove the fsd option for current cars at some point. But if you already paid you would be grandfathered in and hardware upgraded by Tesla.

Objection! Speculation, your honor.

 

[diplomat33]

I hope not. A true freeway level 3 that can handle folks cutting in and road debris, requires no attention most of the time (and thus no steering nags) and has maybe a ten second response period would be worth quite a lot to me - it'd probably make me replace the car, even if it was restricted to freeways (with the promise of more later, of course.)

The reason I think Tesla is waiting until they can release Level 4 is because I think level 4 is closer to what Tesla envisions FSD should be. Level 3 is more what EAP should be some day. Basically, I view EAP as level 2, heading towards level 3 and FSD as level 4 heading towards level 5. So, if they released FSD and it was only level 3, it would look bad. After all, the website promises FSD that can go from point A to point B without human input which sounds to me like level 4. I think people would be really disappointed if FSD were only level 3. Plus, I suspect that Tesla wants to really steal the headlines when they release FSD. They want to really impress. If Tesla were able to release a good level 4 autonomous system, it would not just be big news but it would really boost sales big time.

 

[Saghost]

The reason I think Tesla is waiting until they can release Level 4 is because I think level 4 is closer to what Tesla envisions FSD should be. Level 3 is more what EAP should be some day. Basically, I view EAP as level 2, heading towards level 3 and FSD as level 4 heading towards level 5. So, if they released FSD and it was only level 3, it would look bad. After all, the website promises FSD that can go from point A to point B without human input which sounds to me like level 4. I think people would be really disappointed if FSD were only level 3. Plus, I suspect that Tesla wants to really steal the headlines when they release FSD. They want to really impress. If Tesla were able to release a good level 4 autonomous system, it would not just be big news but it would really boost sales big time.

Oh, FSD certainly has to get to Level 4 eventually to fulfill their promises - and you may have a point that if they release Level 3 under the FSD label some folks would question them.

But if they get a car to level 3 with supporting laws in my neighborhood, they can have more of my money, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

[diplomat33]

Oh, FSD certainly has to get to Level 4 eventually to fulfill their promises - and you may have a point that if they release Level 3 under the FSD label some folks would question them.

Thanks. Heck, just look back at how people reacted when AP2 was first released. A lot of folks expected AP2 to be released at the same level as AP1 from the get-go and then move on to the new features a few months later. Instead we got an AP2 that started as a baby and it took about a year just to catch up to AP1 and some are still not convinced it has even done that yet. It created a lot of frustration and disappointment. I doubt Tesla wants a repeat of that situation which is what would happen if FSD were released as a buggy level 3 system. Which is why I think Tesla is being very cautious now, purposely not showing off any progress on FSD, because they want to wait until they can release something really great from the get-go.

But if they get a car to level 3 with supporting laws in my neighborhood, they can have more of my money, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

You would not be the only one. I'd grab level 3 in a heart beat. I just think level 3 relates more to EAP than FSD. But the EAP feature and hopefully FSD soon, is one big reason why I am getting a Tesla in the first place. I want a great EV that is also self-driving at some point.

 

[R.S]

Thanks. Heck, just look back at how people reacted when AP2 was first released. A lot of folks expected AP2 to be released at the same level as AP1 from the get-go and then move on to the new features a few months later. Instead we got an AP2 that started as a baby and it took about a year just to catch up to AP1 and some are still not convinced it has even done that yet. It created a lot of frustration and disappointment. I doubt Tesla wants a repeat of that situation which is what would happen if FSD were released as a buggy level 3 system. Which is why I think Tesla is being very cautious now, purposely not showing off any progress on FSD, because they want to wait until they can release something really great from the get-go.



You would not be the only one. I'd grab level 3 in a heart beat. I just think level 3 relates more to EAP than FSD. But the EAP feature and hopefully FSD soon, is one big reason why I am getting a Tesla in the first place. I want a great EV that is also self-driving at some point.

I don’t think so. Level 4 has still a long way to go and I do think it is way worse to not add any new features that long. Not only for us, but also for PR.

Being stuck on Level 2 for several years would seem like failure and would surely make FSD orders drop. And since Tesla isn’t swimming in money, and won’t be soon, with all the upcoming projects, that’s not a good thing.

So I expect EAP to improve only a little and then FSD will take over with additional features. Those will eventually enable level 3 and then at some point level 4 and maybe even 5.

But low speed highway level 3, or traffic light recognition would definitely be FSD features. And both would make people shell out more money for FSD, without really having a FSD car.

 

[RVD98072]

Objection! Speculation, your honor.

Of course! This is a forum right? It's all about speculation. If we just went by what Elon and Tesla publicly announces, this would be kind of a boring place.

 

[cwerdna]

Tesla Self-Driving Demonstration

lol, an old video from 2016?

I think it's been mostly dubunked that the car is pre-programmed to drive along the route and most of the video is faked.

Since it happened so long ago and we haven't seen any new developments since, I'm going to assume the functionality is extremely limited and nothing close to actual FSD.

Well, look at https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/c...a/Tesla_disengage_report_2016.pdf?MOD=AJPERES, the dates pointed out there and at CA DMV Report Sheds New Light On Misleading Tesla Autonomous Drive Video - DailyKanban.

For the 550 autonomous miles they drove, they had somewhere past 160, maybe 182 disengagements.

Compare that to Waymo's results at Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2016 and Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2017.

In Tesla's report to the California DMV, they stated that they tested FSD on public roads outside California, on non-public roads, in simulations and in shadow-mode.

My responses to simulations and shadow mode are at How well does Autopilot work compared to the competition? and How well does Autopilot work compared to the competition?.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I know the consensus is that getting the FSD option now does not make sense. The argument goes that we have no idea when FSD will arrive, it could be years or maybe "never". Then there is the argument that we don't know if the hardware is even good enough so why spend money on an option if we later find out, it requires new hardware. So the argument is it is better to wait and see. I used to agree with that consensus. But the recent conference call has changed my mind. I am now planning to get the FSD option on my Model 3 unless something changes between now and when I get my car.

Here are my reasons:
1) Tesla is planning the FSD coast to coast demo in 3-6 months. Musk also said the neural net is solid and will learn exponentially. Both those statements taken together make me optimistic that they are close to getting FSD working. Now, I know that Tesla misses deadlines. After all, Musk said "3-6 months" for AP2 to diverge from AP1 and we all know how that panned out. So, yes, it is possible that the FSD demo will get pushed back again. But even if they do miss the 6 month deadline to do the demo, I think they are pretty close now to getting FSD working. I definitely don't think FSD is decades away as the skeptics claim.
2) I plan to finance my Model 3, pay it off and keep the car for as long as it lasts. So even if FSD is still a few years off, I think I will see it happen in the lifetime of my car. So getting it now will save me $1000.
3) When Tesla does release FSD, I think it will be AMAZING! Call me a fanboy, but I think Tesla will impress when they do finally release FSD. And I want to be ready to get it as soon as it is released!

Having said all that, I am still about 10 months away from getting my Model 3 according to my estimated delivery date. I will pay close attention to any FSD news in the coming months. There is still plenty of time for things to change for better or for worse. And if bad news comes out about Tesla's FSD in the next coming months, I will of course re-evaluate my position. But right now, count me as back in the "planning to get FSD" camp.

I think you forget the most important reason to get FSD: differentiating features. Tesla has outlined that EAP will be a four-camera system, FSD a full eight-camera system. This would suggest that there are bound to be features that Tesla deems available only to FSD enabled cars, even before any FSD system itself is available. One of those might be, for example, advanced sign or traffic light detection that would, by nature, require the use of a fifth camera.

As for the status of the full FSD, you may be too optimistic on what the coast-to-coast drive or NN status may mean. My comment(s) here. However, there is some merit to getting the FSD now and guaranteeing a better chance at getting the FSD and possible HW upgrades at a fixed price - instead of waiting until the price may go up.

But IMO the biggest reason is that the FSD option hopefully sooner rather than later will offer some extra features.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Here's the thing I keep coming back to regarding full self driving. I don't see it getting released a feature or two at a time like enhanced auto pilot can. From a liability standpoint it can either completely take over the driving or it can't. I see it as an all or nothing thing, at least from a "who's at fault in an accident" standpoint. This alludes to Elon's comments about the limitations of LIDAR and why he has chosen a neural network image recognition approach. LIDAR can't read road signs or redlights. They seem to be completely dependent on specific geographic areas or routes. He is betting that the image recognition approach is a much more permanent system in all situations. This is why it is proving to be so time consuming to develop. Once the system has proven an order of magnitude improvement in safety over an average driver then I think it will be released.

Will that happen this year? ...next year? That is the question, but as long as it comes out in the next 5 or so (and I feel it definitely will) then I will order it up front.

Dan

 

[Saghost]

Here's the thing I keep coming back to regarding full self driving. I don't see it getting released a feature or two at a time like enhanced auto pilot can. From a liability standpoint it can either completely take over the driving or it can't. I see it as an all or nothing thing, at least from a "who's at fault in an accident" standpoint. This alludes to Elon's comments about the limitations of LIDAR and why he has chosen a neural network image recognition approach. LIDAR can't read road signs or redlights. They seem to be completely dependent on specific geographic areas or routes. He is betting that the image recognition approach is a much more permanent system in all situations. This is why it is proving to be so time consuming to develop. Once the system has proven an order of magnitude improvement in safety over an average driver then I think it will be released.

Will that happen this year? ...next year? That is the question, but as long as it comes out in the next 5 or so (and I feel it definitely will) then I will order it up front.

Dan

Disagree. You're right that for any given situation, either the car is driving or the driver is and for liability reasons the distinction needs to be clear.

However, I don't think this means they can't release anything until they have the entire problem solved.

I could easily see them releasing a level 3 or 4 freeway only version first - it'll handle everything that might happen on the freeway, but you have to drive the surface streets, and the car prevents you from activating it in true wrong environment based either on GPS or on the NN assessment of the environment.

Maybe even a fair weather freeway only version first, with all weather to follow.

Then a few months later, new firmware to handle rural environments, and so forth.

For the legal and handoff angles, they need to cover every situation in a driving environment (or recognize them and alert when needed, for level 3) before releasing, but they don't need to cover every environment with the initial release.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Disagree. You're right that for any given situation, either the car is driving or the driver is and for liability reasons the distinction needs to be clear.

However, I don't think this means they can't release anything until they have the entire problem solved.

I could easily see them releasing a level 3 or 4 freeway only version first - it'll handle everything that might happen on the freeway, but you have to drive the surface streets, and the car prevents you from activating it in true wrong environment based either on GPS or on the NN assessment of the environment.

Maybe even a fair weather freeway only version first, with all weather to follow.

Then a few months later, new firmware to handle rural environments, and so forth.

For the legal and handoff angles, they need to cover every situation in a driving environment (or recognize them and alert when needed, for level 3) before releasing, but they don't need to cover every environment with the initial release.

For Enhanced Auto Pilot...no doubt features will come out in batches. But true Full Self Driving is a different animal. I think liability is going to be the driving force here (pardon the pun). Full self driving means you can put a 5 year old in the car and send him to school and then return and park in the garage. It means I can drive to work, send the car to the house to pick up my ailing grandmother and take her to her doctor's appointment, return her home and then come get me from work. Full self driving means no licensed driver needed...or allowed. I think as long as there is a method to disengage the autopilot once it is engaged without stopping the car first, it is no longer full self driving. This is where the liability issue comes in. If there is any way to take over control then whoever is in the driver's seat is the legal driver responsible for any and all actions. Once true self driving is in place who is responsible then? The manufacturer? We don't know how all of that is going to play out yet but it seems to me that it is going to have to be an all or nothing thing legally.

Dan

 

[AnxietyRanger]

For Enhanced Auto Pilot...no doubt features will come out in batches. But true Full Self Driving is a different animal. I think liability is going to be the driving force here (pardon the pun). Full self driving means you can put a 5 year old in the car and send him to school and then return and park in the garage.

But you are forgetting Tesla didn't only separate EAP vs. FSD through functionality (although they did), they also stated that EAP will use only four cameras (as well as have a specific set of features).

FSD bumps that up to 8 cameras and - logically - an unlimited range of available features. And whatever those features they might come up with, very likely will come in batches. As Elon said... in FSD differentiating features in 3-6 months...

They missed that (and every other) timeline, but the idea is still there. FSD differentiating features were at least planned before full FSD. It would seem logical they'd still be on the pipeline, only delayed because things didn't go according to schedule...

 

[SSonnentag]

I don't even want FSD. A good EAP is all I ask for.

 

[josher32]

One thing mentioned on earnings call was they may raise price of FSD to $5000 as Elon thinks it will be more worth that much. Agree That I think it is a few years off though.

 

[diplomat33]

One thing mentioned on earnings call was they may raise price of FSD to $5000 as Elon thinks it will be more worth that much. Agree That I think it is a few years off though.

I definitely think the price will go up after FSD is released, especially if it is really good. There is no way Tesla is keeping the price at $3000 if they actually have real self-driving on their cars. The demand for a self-driving Tesla will skyrocket.

But in terms of a timeline, I think it really depends on how good Tesla's FSD really is. If Tesla is telling the truth that they've made a big breakthrough in their neural net, then I think we will see FSD much sooner than we think. If Tesla is wrong and they actually still have a lot more work to do, then yeah, it could be years before we see FSD. Of course, right now, we have no way of knowing for sure, since we have not seen any concrete updates on FSD. I think the coast to coast demo will be our first big sign. If it happens this year and it is really good, then I think we will see FSD next year.

 

[insaneoctane]

Who is liable for crashes with FSD? If you read the wording, it says "no action required by the person in the drivers seat". I can't believe Tesla will pay for accidents because even at 10x better than human there will still be statistically some accidents. They're aiming for 1x or 2x. So that makes YOU liable. Who here will trust Tesla to drive itself and if it crashes you'll just hope no one's hurt or killed and then you'll just pull out your wallet? Seems complicated to me...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

For true fully self driving capabilities, as in no driver needed, as in send it to school to pick up the kids then send it to your blind grandma's to take her to the doctor and bring her back, then summon it to pick you up from work, etc. Tesla could name it's own price and they would have all the customers they needed (within reason of course). I would say an additional 10-15K would not be unreasonable at all. The 3K up front certainly will be a steal.

Dan