I am now planning to get the full self-driving option and here is why

[JHuberman]

We recently configured our Model 3 and chose the Full Self Driving option after this (rough) analysis...

FSD Financial Analysis
Full Self Additional $3,000.00
Invested at 10%
Investment $ Earned from investment
1st Year $3,300.00 $300.00
2st Year $3,630.00 $630.00
3st Year $3,993.00 $993.00
4st Year $4,392.30 $1,392.30
5st Year $4,831.53 $1,831.53
6st Year $5,314.68 $2,314.68
7st Year $5,846.15 $2,846.15

We assumed we would invest the $3000 at 10% annual compounded interest.
Assuming there is no price increase other than the stated $1000 increase then we break even if it is delivered at the end of the third year. Personally I think it will be done by then, so we decided to pay for it up front. If the final price goes up then obviously the break even date moves out further.

 

[izybit]

FSD should be considered if you want to give a loan to Tesla.

If you want to use your money in a more sane way I would suggest investing them and the 1000 extra won't mater because the profits will be more than that when FSD comes to market.

Even better, put the FSD money in crypto. Buy BTC, LTC, ETH and TRX and in a year or so you will be able to afford FSD and a bunch of other stuff.

 

[whitex]

FSD should be considered if you want to give a loan to Tesla.

Loan requires repayment, often with interest, and most importantly loans have maturity dates - a date by which repayment is guaranteed. So no, FSD is really not a loan, unless it's a no interest, no payments for an indefinite amount of time type loan (it's the kind loan everyone wants, I'll take a billion dollars of those please).

 

[izybit]

Loan requires repayment, often with interest, and most importantly loans have maturity dates - a date by which repayment is guaranteed. So no, FSD is really not a loan, unless it's a no interest, no payments for an indefinite amount of time type loan (it's the kind loan everyone wants, I'll take a billion dollars of those please).

Dude, come on! I mean it in the sense you give them your money and they will "pay you back" sometime in the future.

 

[Mark Z]

FSD when fully operational should help safety compared with Autopilot only. The more computing power and redundancy the better.

Stay alert and be ready to take control for maximum safety.

 

[whitex]

Dude, come on! I mean it in the sense you give them your money and they will "pay you back" sometime in the future.

It's a kick-starter donation. You are financing development of FSD and helping Elon get his bonus tied to profit margin, then if you're lucky, before you sell your car, it might do something cool you can show to your friends. Chances of FSD actually working fully as described ("summon your car across the country" to use a clear example from Elon) before the car you buy today bites the dust are smaller than winning a lottery for $8,000.

 

[Sasmania]

I just configured my 3 a week or so ago and got FSD.

Vote with your wallets people and this thing will get developed faster!

My odds it will be turned on:

2018: 5%
2019: 60%
2020: 95%
2021: 1 Million%

 

[whitex]

I just configured my 3 a week or so ago and got FSD.

Vote with your wallets people and this thing will get developed faster!

My odds it will be turned on:

2018: 5%
2019: 60%
2020: 95%
2021: 1 Million%

Define "turned on" ? To what exactly in the range between "special color of the self-steering indicator" and "summon across the country" do you apply your odds?

 

[cwerdna]

Also, I've been watching some Waymo videos, their system does appear to be impressive in city driving but I've not seen much for highway driving. I wonder why. I am sure it could do highway driving but it appears as if the engineers have decided to tackle city driving first, probably because it is more difficult. It seems as if Waymo is only interested in city driving because they want to be an urban taxi service and are ignoring highway driving altogether.

Waymo's system most certainly can do highway but they are focusing on city because it is more difficult.

See their 2015 CA DMV disengagement report https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/c...5/google_disengagement_report.pdf?MOD=AJPERES page 2 of the PDF (footer of the page is page 1, 3rd paragraph of Introduction section). I believe I've seen other reports from Google's/Waymo's efforts starting that their goal IS NOT to just to rack up tons of miles by doing (less complex) highway self-driving. That'd be easy. It might take me awhile to find those reports/references.

You have seen Why testing self-driving cars in SF is challenging but necessary (from GM's Cruise Automation), right? Their reference to Phoenix is an allusion to Google perhaps picking too easy an environment for their city testing for the longest time while Cruise Automation is intentionally tackling one of the tougher ones. And, Mountain View is where Google HQ is.

 

[cwerdna]

Define "turned on" ? To what exactly in the range between "special color of the self-steering indicator" and "summon across the country" do you apply your odds?

Exactly. We need a definition. SAE had this simple table: Wayback Machine. Are we talking level 4 or 5?

For what countries? The US? Some countries outside the US? All countries where Tesla sells their vehicles?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Whenever this does come to pass I think it's important to remember/realize what this potentially means economically for the vast majority of auto owners in the world. Aside from the obvious convenience/coolness factor, this means the end of the need for multi vehicle families in the vast majority of cases. Car delivers dad to work, returns home to pick up mom and take her to work. Car goes home to pick up the kids and take them to school then returns home to plug itself in and charge. At the appropriate time the car unplugs itself and goes to pick up the kids from school and bring them home. Parents aren't done at work before the oldest needs to go to violin lessons and the youngest needs to go to soccer practice. Car takes care of that before going to pick mom up at work and returns her home before going to get dad and picking the kids up at their respective events. Car brings them home and plugs itself in again.

This is just one scenario or thousands like it. Now, instead of the need to purchase, insure, fuel and maintain two vehicles the family can comfortably function on one. This represents a revelation in transportation, relives the gridlock of all those two car families on the road at the same time and eliminates all that nasty pollution being spewed into the air by all those cars at the same time.

Can't wait. Yes, I will be checking FSD when I configure.

Dan

 

[djplong]

I look forward to:

Car delivers my wife and I to airport. Car goes home and plugs in. Days later, car is summoned and picks up wife and I from airport. I save over $200/week in parking charges at Logan airport. FSD pays for itself in 85 days of unneeded parking fees alone.

 

[diplomat33]

I just configured my 3 a week or so ago and got FSD.

Vote with your wallets people and this thing will get developed faster!

My odds it will be turned on:

2018: 5%
2019: 60%
2020: 95%
2021: 1 Million%

My FSD prediction:

Early 2019: "beta" FSD is released that can handle highway driving extremely well, can do common city driving ok but has some problems with certain complicated city driving scenarios.
2020: "Beta" FSD gets better with regular over the air updates. Handles certain city driving situations much better than before.
2021: "Beta" FSD gets even better. Handles highway and city driving quite well with a few small exceptions.
2022: FSD good enough that you can fall asleep and let the car drive you 200 miles.

 

[Barklikeadog]

My FSD prediction:

Early 2019: "beta" FSD is released that can handle highway driving extremely well, can do common city driving ok but has some problems with certain complicated city driving scenarios.
2020: "Beta" FSD gets better with regular over the air updates. Handles certain city driving situations much better than before.
2021: "Beta" FSD gets even better. Handles highway and city driving quite well with a few small exceptions.
2022: FSD good enough that you can fall asleep and let the car drive you 200 miles.

I still think 2022 is a bit soon for the 'sleep in your car' feature, but I like your projections. Ive been throwing out a general time frame of a decade since I joined here. The idea
that your car will go out by itself and Uber while you sleep at home is far far off.... yet it is in their FSD statements that the Model 3 is capable of this. This might happen in
your -next- Model 3 that you buy in 2026, I can't see it on the current one(of course they could modify the current vehicles at great expense)

 

[diplomat33]

I still think 2022 is a bit soon for the 'sleep in your car' feature, but I like your projections. Ive been throwing out a general time frame of a decade since I joined here. The idea
that your car will go out by itself and Uber while you sleep at home is far far off.... yet it is in their FSD statements that the Model 3 is capable of this. This might happen in
your -next- Model 3 that you buy in 2026, I can't see it on the current one(of course they could modify the current vehicles at great expense)

Thanks. I tried to be realistic with my predictions.

I would argue that Waymo has already achieved the "sleep in your car while it takes you somewhere" level of FSD so I don't think 2022 is unrealistic. Of course, Google/Waymo has been developing FSD longer than Tesla and also uses more hardware, including LIDAR, than Tesla. So, I think the real question is whether Tesla's no LIDAR approach can also achieve FSD. Personally, I think so but it may take a bit longer. Tesla will need to compensate for the lack of LIDAR with much more sophisticated camera vision. In fact, I would surmise that camera vision is probably what is holding up FSD at this point. Once, Tesla nails camera vision, FSD will be done.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Thanks. I tried to be realistic with my predictions.

I would argue that Waymo has already achieved the "sleep in your car while it takes you somewhere" level of FSD so I don't think 2022 is unrealistic. Of course, Google/Waymo has been developing FSD longer than Tesla and also uses more hardware, including LIDAR, than Tesla. So, I think the real question is whether Tesla's no LIDAR approach can also achieve FSD. Personally, I think so but it may take a bit longer. Tesla will need to compensate for the lack of LIDAR with much more sophisticated camera vision. In fact, I would surmise that camera vision is probably what is holding up FSD at this point. Once, Tesla nails camera vision, FSD will be done.

Interesting...

I see this as the LIDAR that is going to be the limiting factor in the quest for true self driving. Waymo/Google is achieving their successes in environments that they have thoroughly mapped with very specific parameters. I don't think LIDAR will ever be able to achieve full autonomy out in the broader unmapped environment. It can't read road signs for one thing. Yes, photo vision will be harder to develop. Hence the delay in auto pilot releases, but in the end will prove far more adaptable in the real world.

That's my take at least.

Dan

 

[Sasmania]

Define "turned on" ? To what exactly in the range between "special color of the self-steering indicator" and "summon across the country" do you apply your odds?

That's a good question. I wonder if Enhanced will be the one getting the updates until the day true FSD is available and released?

You really can't have something that's sold as FSD that only works half way can you?

But in my mind, FSD means I can be in the passenger seat and have the car get me from point A to B...at least in normal weather conditions.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Interesting...

I see this as the LIDAR that is going to be the limiting factor in the quest for true self driving. Waymo/Google is achieving their successes in environments that they have thoroughly mapped with very specific parameters. I don't think LIDAR will ever be able to achieve full autonomy out in the broader unmapped environment. It can't read road signs for one thing. Yes, photo vision will be harder to develop. Hence the delay in auto pilot releases, but in the end will prove far more adaptable in the real world.

That's my take at least.

Dan

Lidar and the ability to communicate/locate all other cars on the road and vice versa. I think that is going to be a vital cog in everything running smoothly. In my city
commute, there are a dozen places where people have to bend the rules in order to make things work. Someone turning left... is the FSD car going to improvise and go around, or will
it hold up traffic until that 1 car turns? The same thing for left turns at a red light...

 

[Barklikeadog]

I know the consensus is that getting the FSD option now does not make sense. The argument goes that we have no idea when FSD will arrive, it could be years or maybe "never". Then there is the argument that we don't know if the hardware is even good enough so why spend money on an option if we later find out, it requires new hardware. So the argument is it is better to wait and see. I used to agree with that consensus. But the recent conference call has changed my mind. I am now planning to get the FSD option on my Model 3 unless something changes between now and when I get my car.

Here are my reasons:
1) Tesla is planning the FSD coast to coast demo in 3-6 months. Musk also said the neural net is solid and will learn exponentially. Both those statements taken together make me optimistic that they are close to getting FSD working. Now, I know that Tesla misses deadlines. After all, Musk said "3-6 months" for AP2 to diverge from AP1 and we all know how that panned out. So, yes, it is possible that the FSD demo will get pushed back again. But even if they do miss the 6 month deadline to do the demo, I think they are pretty close now to getting FSD working. I definitely don't think FSD is decades away as the skeptics claim.
2) I plan to finance my Model 3, pay it off and keep the car for as long as it lasts. So even if FSD is still a few years off, I think I will see it happen in the lifetime of my car. So getting it now will save me $1000.
3) When Tesla does release FSD, I think it will be AMAZING! Call me a fanboy, but I think Tesla will impress when they do finally release FSD. And I want to be ready to get it as soon as it is released!

Having said all that, I am still about 10 months away from getting my Model 3 according to my estimated delivery date. I will pay close attention to any FSD news in the coming months. There is still plenty of time for things to change for better or for worse. And if bad news comes out about Tesla's FSD in the next coming months, I will of course re-evaluate my position. But right now, count me as back in the "planning to get FSD" camp.

4 years flew by!

 

[Barklikeadog]

I still think 2022 is a bit soon for the 'sleep in your car' feature, but I like your projections. Ive been throwing out a general time frame of a decade since I joined here. The idea
that your car will go out by itself and Uber while you sleep at home is far far off.... yet it is in their FSD statements that the Model 3 is capable of this. This might happen in
your -next- Model 3 that you buy in 2026, I can't see it on the current one(of course they could modify the current vehicles at great expense)

this guy! right??