I am now planning to get the full self-driving option and here is why

[diplomat33]

4 years flew by!

Yep, I used to be a big believer in Tesla's FSD. That was before I understood the challenges of autonomous driving. Back then, I believed Elon when he would say we will be able to sleep in our self-driving car in 3-6 months. LOL. That post was a classic case of FOMO. I will say that I don't regret getting FSD. Features like NOA have been really nice. But I have been disappointed in FSD Beta.

 

[OliverM3]

Until it's 100% sleep in your car on the way to work it's useless and they should be paying us to test it not the other way around.
Hey don't get me wrong love the car but FSD shouldn't be any fee at this point we're helping them.

 

[nvx1977]

Yep, I used to be a big believer in Tesla's FSD. That was before I understood the challenges of autonomous driving. Back then, I believed Elon when he would say we will be able to sleep in our self-driving car in 3-6 months. LOL. That post was a classic case of FOMO. I will say that I don't regret getting FSD. Features like NOA have been really nice. But I have been disappointed in FSD Beta.

I read your OP for the first time just now. You posted that as I was waiting the grueling wait for my Model 3. Remember the Troy Teslike spreadsheet? We were all trying to figure out what color batches were in production to guess when we'd get our cars

Funny, I was on the fence about FSD but ultimately decided to go the other direction and hold off on the FSD purchase. Despite the encouraging words from Musk at the time, I still had my doubts. So I lost out on the $1k discount by ordering it with the car. But later when they had that 2-week period where they offered FSD for $2k for EAP owners, I committed. Still not believing that FSD was just around the corner, I rationalized that $2k was worth the risk, and it was comparable to a decked out PC, which one could argue what HW3 was anyway.

One thing I'll call out though is that AP was really awful back in 2018. Tesla stopped using Mobileye's AP1 and basically had to redo all the functionality from scratch. I remember trying AP on a local 2-lane road and it was very scary. Way worse than FSD beta 10.2 from last October. But they significantly improved AP over the years. By end of 2019, AP2 was much better.

10.11.2 reminds me of an improving AP and gives me hope that we're not too far from a tolerable, more relaxing FSD experience. Still L2, but useful L2.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Yep, I used to be a big believer in Tesla's FSD. That was before I understood the challenges of autonomous driving. Back then, I believed Elon when he would say we will be able to sleep in our self-driving car in 3-6 months. LOL. That post was a classic case of FOMO. I will say that I don't regret getting FSD. Features like NOA have been really nice. But I have been disappointed in FSD Beta.

I was a jerk in some of these old posts. It drives me nuts when I see a company doing something where customers get scrooed. I was pretty convinced that
FSD and all of these promises were going to fleece a lot of people out of money and they would never see the product they paid for. I like the car, I like the
idea, but don't promise and lie about something that you won't be able to deliver. Ford says they will not tolerate dealer markups on their EV. Today we were
talking about an MSRP 81k Lariat that a dealer wants 99k for.... Hey Ford.... are you gonna let this fly? Someone is gonna get ripped off for almost 20 grand.
Don't promise something and not follow through for the consumer. Tesla would still sell millions of cars without this FSD promise, all it creates is a liability.

 

[whitex]

I was a jerk in some of these old posts. It drives me nuts when I see a company doing something where customers get scrooed. I was pretty convinced that
FSD and all of these promises were going to fleece a lot of people out of money and they would never see the product they paid for. I like the car, I like the
idea, but don't promise and lie about something that you won't be able to deliver. Ford says they will not tolerate dealer markups on their EV. Today we were
talking about an MSRP 81k Lariat that a dealer wants 99k for.... Hey Ford.... are you gonna let this fly? Someone is gonna get ripped off for almost 20 grand.
Don't promise something and not follow through for the consumer. Tesla would still sell millions of cars without this FSD promise, all it creates is a liability.

"Lucky" me, I bought Elon's 691hp car in 2015 which was supposed to come with OTA update to meet the spec, but instead came with the excuse couple of years later that "your motors are capable, but the rest of the car not so much" (it would actually require a 50% power boost for the battery and all electronics to reach the advertised 691hp). The car had a fuse in the battery which would have blown way before the car could produce the advertised power. This is how I learned it wasn't a "oh we though we could do it over the air", since of course the pyro fuses are not updatable over the air. It was a pure con job from the beginning.

So when I saw Elon selling "FSD capable" in 2016, I knew it was not going to happen, that probably some parts of the car are FSD capable (floor mats for sure), but never the whole car. I tried to warn people (even in just this thread, comments #184 and #188). Sadly, almost nobody believed me . I got flamed instead by people making excuses for Elon and believing robo taxis and "Tesla Ride Sharing Network" is coming "any day now" (after all, in 2016 Tesla said the ride sharing network was coming very soon). I guess some lessons have to learned on your own skin? I wonder how many people who paid for FSD in the past are willing to buy more of Elon's vaporware today.

PS> in comment #185 I advised people if they really want to take a gamble on FSD (since it didn't do anything then), they should just buy TSLA stock instead of paying for FSD. I wonder how many people took my advice. Anyone who did, has over $117K in TSLA today (it would have peaked at over $142K, a free new Plaid), those who didn't, have AP2.x or maybe an upgraded AP3 with old sensors and no redundant hardware, and perhaps holding on to a naive hope that their cars will have full autonomy some day. If Tesla does make FSD work as Elon thinks (true driverless Level 5 autonomy) by the end of 2022, that $8K investment will be worth even more.

 

[240vPlug]

My reasoning for adding FSD is really simple. The price of FSD is only going to increase as Tesla adds additional functionality. So I asked myself is FSD going to be more expensive in 3 years? Is FSD going to have additional features or capabilities in 3 years? I think the answer to both is yes. So I will have additional features and then if i choose to upgrade or otherwise sell the car it will be more valuable because it has FSD package.

I may also keep the car longer too. I think at the current sub price of $199 the break even is 5 years but you can bet the sub price will increase when they add new features/capabilities which will reduce that. For example if they increase the sub price to $299 the payback is only 3 years and 4 months.

 

[puckpurnell]

Me? Well, I really like driving my 2018 AWD Dual Motor. I hardly let my wife drive Lady Sprite Blue let alone having FSD take over the wheel. Count me OUT!

 

[sleepydoc]

My reasoning for adding FSD is really simple. The price of FSD is only going to increase as Tesla adds additional functionality. So I asked myself is FSD going to be more expensive in 3 years? Is FSD going to have additional features or capabilities in 3 years? I think the answer to both is yes. So I will have additional features and then if i choose to upgrade or otherwise sell the car it will be more valuable because it has FSD package.

I may also keep the car longer too. I think at the current sub price of $199 the break even is 5 years but you can bet the sub price will increase when they add new features/capabilities which will reduce that. For example if they increase the sub price to $299 the payback is only 3 years and 4 months.

It all depends on what you hope to use it for, what you can use it for, when it’s really available and how much it costs at that time. I paid for FSD when I got my car (it was $10k then.) In hindsight it was probably not a good use of my money. I won’t say it was a total waste because I did use the other features that came with it and now I generally like being part of the FSD beta program, but I don’t know that it was worth $10k.

If someone asked me today I’d say wait - you can always buy or subscribe later on. At the current prices it would take 5 years of subscribing to make up the cost of purchasing. If FSD becomes widely available and you expect to keep your car more than 5 years then you can purchase it at that point. It’s been clear for years that Elon’s time estimates are worthless. At this point, no one really knows when it will be ready for prime time (or even non-prime time.) If I had to guess I’d say at least 2-3 years. If you’re someone that just loves technology and it’s worth it for you now then go ahead and buy now but do so being fully aware of the limitations.

I’ll also add that I wouldn’t take resale value into consideration. No one knows how much value FSD will add to a used car’s value in 4 -5 years. If it’s working perfectly then it might add a lot. If Tesla continues to have problems then it might be as valuable as an 8 track tape player.

 

[whitex]

My reasoning for adding FSD is really simple. The price of FSD is only going to increase as Tesla adds additional functionality.

If Tesla really gets FSD working, the TSLA stock price will go up more than the FSD purchase price.

 

[Goose66]

Remember the Troy Teslike spreadsheet? We were all trying to figure out what color batches were in production to guess when we'd get our cars

Oh yes - the delivery spreadsheet. July, 2018 - after careful analysis I placed my order for the blue LR RWD M3 with stock wheels in hopes I would get delivery by end-of-year to get the full tax credit. It came in three weeks.

 

[Goose66]

"Lucky" me, I bought Elon's 691hp car in 2015 which was supposed to come with OTA update to meet the spec, but instead came with the excuse couple of years later that "your motors are capable, but the rest of the car not so much" (it would actually require a 50% power boost for the battery and all electronics to reach the advertised 691hp). The car had a fuse in the battery which would have blown way before the car could produce the advertised power. This is how I learned it wasn't a "oh we though we could do it over the air", since of course the pyro fuses are not updatable over the air. It was a pure con job from the beginning.

So when I saw Elon selling "FSD capable" in 2016, I knew it was not going to happen, that probably some parts of the car are FSD capable (floor mats for sure), but never the whole car. I tried to warn people (even in just this thread, comments #184 and #188). Sadly, almost nobody believed me . I got flamed instead by people making excuses for Elon and believing robo taxis and "Tesla Ride Sharing Network" is coming "any day now" (after all, in 2016 Tesla said the ride sharing network was coming very soon). I guess some lessons have to learned on your own skin? I wonder how many people who paid for FSD in the past are willing to buy more of Elon's vaporware today.

PS> in comment #185 I advised people if they really want to take a gamble on FSD (since it didn't do anything then), they should just buy TSLA stock instead of paying for FSD. I wonder how many people took my advice. Anyone who did, has over $117K in TSLA today (it would have peaked at over $142K, a free new Plaid), those who didn't, have AP2.x or maybe an upgraded AP3 with old sensors and no redundant hardware, and perhaps holding on to a naive hope that their cars will have full autonomy some day. If Tesla does make FSD work as Elon thinks (true driverless Level 5 autonomy) by the end of 2022, that $8K investment will be worth even more.

If any of us could just be as smart as you - imagine the World?

 

[OncomingStorm]

old threads like this are fun to read, lots of shifting opinions over time. in 2018 when this thread was created, i would have been in the "don't waste your money" camp, but now the tech has finally caught up and we are in the home stretch for AV's. L5 is a ways off yet, but useful L3/L4 is right around the corner, someone will nail it even if thats not tesla (tho i'd bet on tesla being first to market).

that said i can understand how people can become disillusioned with tesla, musk's overreliance on qualifying terms like "probably" or "i think" when making grandiose hopeful statements doesn't help anyone but the investors (which might be the point i guess lol).

 

[wwu123]

Hmm, the OP didn't age well .... and by OP, I'm not sure if I mean the original post, or the original poster - rather than the "lifetime of the car", we might starting wanting to think about our own lifetime....

That said, don't regret the $2K deal in 2019 to upgrade our Model 3 from EAP, just to follow the progress firsthand. But managed to squeak in to the FSD beta just after Xmas, days before they shut the door on Dec 30th. I'd be mighty pissed keeping a safety score for 4 more months with not even a hint of getting in....

 

[t3sl4drvr]

[In Feb 2018] Tesla is planning the FSD coast to coast demo in 3-6 months. Musk also said the neural net is solid and will learn exponentially. Both those statements taken together make me optimistic that they are close to getting FSD working. Now, I know that Tesla misses deadlines. After all, Musk said "3-6 months" for AP2 to diverge from AP1 and we all know how that panned out. So, yes, it is possible that the FSD demo will get pushed back again. But even if they do miss the 6 month deadline to do the demo, I think they are pretty close now to getting FSD working.

This is not age well

 

[momo3605]

My reasoning for adding FSD is really simple. The price of FSD is only going to increase as Tesla adds additional functionality. So I asked myself is FSD going to be more expensive in 3 years? Is FSD going to have additional features or capabilities in 3 years? I think the answer to both is yes. So I will have additional features and then if i choose to upgrade or otherwise sell the car it will be more valuable because it has FSD package.

I may also keep the car longer too. I think at the current sub price of $199 the break even is 5 years but you can bet the sub price will increase when they add new features/capabilities which will reduce that. For example if they increase the sub price to $299 the payback is only 3 years and 4 months.

I’m honestly not sure what additional functionality we’ll get from FSD. It’s pretty well known fact that the camera placement in HW3 does not have optimal visibility and most likely can not be L4. It also seems very unlikely that Tesla will do another free upgrade to HW4 especially if it includes new cameras and sensors.

At this point, I would expect FSD will remain an L2 drivers assist, and will maybe get a tiny bit better until they release it to the general public. At which point, new cars with HW4 will get a new L3/L4 package.

This is disappointing for me as I purchased FSD believing we would be able to sleep in our cars and that the long term value of FSD would skyrocket. Having used FSD beta for the past year, I think we can all agree it’s never going to happen in our current cars with the current hardware.

 

[Barklikeadog]

I’m honestly not sure what additional functionality we’ll get from FSD. It’s pretty well known fact that the camera placement in HW3 does not have optimal visibility and most likely can not be L4. It also seems very unlikely that Tesla will do another free upgrade to HW4 especially if it includes new cameras and sensors.

At this point, I would expect FSD will remain an L2 drivers assist, and will maybe get a tiny bit better until they release it to the general public. At which point, new cars with HW4 will get a new L3/L4 package.

This is disappointing for me as I purchased FSD believing we would be able to sleep in our cars and that the long term value of FSD would skyrocket. Having used FSD beta for the past year, I think we can all agree it’s never going to happen in our current cars with the current hardware.

I've always felt that true FSD won't be a reality until all autos on the road can communicate with each other (position, velocity). Course that's waaay in the future.
I think it's better to put the effort behind making the current vehicles as safe as possible, able to drive for many tasks with a driver ready to take over. Get really
good at that first. Don't sell what doesn't exist. Don't sell someone a solar roof, take the old roof off, then not have the tiles to finish the job.

I don't own the car, but I've owned the stock, made money, want them to do well. But there is some weird disconnect here. The defenders here keep throwing out the
'Elon is overoptimistic' card. At some point, it's simply a lie. Quick, buy the car now, it's an appreciating asset! I cannot imagine the FSD techies were telling him it would be
ready in 3-6 months... People who left that dept have said what it was like, the pressure and unrealistic expectations that they simply could not achieve. Either they are constantly lying
to the Boss over the years, or the Boss is lying to the public. Optimism schmoptimism.

If I told my friend... hey, order the pizza, I'm sure I'll be over by 7... and I don't show up... and then I do it again... and again... What are they gonna say? I'm being overly optimistic?
Or am I a sh****y ex-friend?

anyway
/rant

 

[EVNow]

If PUP was not forced on us - my choice would be to get AEP. Atleast it does something today.

FSD - who knows. I'm just hoping for FSD on known routes in good conditions in a couple of years.

BTW, some companies have already demonstrated coast to coast FSD.

Hmmm ... Looks like I was off by a couple of years.

 

[whitex]

If any of us could just be as smart as you - imagine the World?

It doesn't take that many smarts to follow a simple argument as it was in 2018:

1. FSD did absolutely nothing back then, so your $8K was purely to guarantee the option price (FOMO)
2. If FSD is realized by Tesla, their stock will skyrocket more than the price of FSD software feature - a reasonable assumption
3. Therefore if you believe Elon that FSD is a "solved problem", it makes sense to buy TSLA stock rather than FSD feature. When it happens, you buy FSD then, and pocket the difference. If it doesn't happen and you bought FSD, your investment is worthless, but if you bought TSLA, it will still be worth something unless they went under. Note that FSD is still not a solved problem (ignore Elon's pipe dream) and the TSLA investment is already worth $117K from the original $8K, so a great "plan B" outcome.

The only way the above doesn't make sense is if you believe the FSD software option price will go up 20x or more once released but TSLA stick will not, (meaning you bought into Elon's "every Tesla will be worth over $220K by end of 2020"), but even then you only broke even buying FSD vs. TSLA stock assuming TSLA stock today already prices in FSD as a solved problem.

 

[whitex]

This is not age well

That wasn't even the first time Elon promised a coast-to-coast demo. The first one was supposed to happen by end of 2017. The 3-6 month was a phase Elon went through around 2018 where everything was "in 3 months maybe, 6 months for sure". That was after his "soon" stage.

 

[whitex]

Hmmm ... Looks like I was off by a couple of years.

A couple? What routes do you today get true Full Self Driving as originally advertised, i.e. completely driverless, your car able to drive your friends and family members around like for free and making you money driving strangers around through the Tesla Ride Sharing network?