I am now planning to get the full self-driving option and here is why

[diplomat33]

I know the consensus is that getting the FSD option now does not make sense. The argument goes that we have no idea when FSD will arrive, it could be years or maybe "never". Then there is the argument that we don't know if the hardware is even good enough so why spend money on an option if we later find out, it requires new hardware. So the argument is it is better to wait and see. I used to agree with that consensus. But the recent conference call has changed my mind. I am now planning to get the FSD option on my Model 3 unless something changes between now and when I get my car.

Here are my reasons:
1) Tesla is planning the FSD coast to coast demo in 3-6 months. Musk also said the neural net is solid and will learn exponentially. Both those statements taken together make me optimistic that they are close to getting FSD working. Now, I know that Tesla misses deadlines. After all, Musk said "3-6 months" for AP2 to diverge from AP1 and we all know how that panned out. So, yes, it is possible that the FSD demo will get pushed back again. But even if they do miss the 6 month deadline to do the demo, I think they are pretty close now to getting FSD working. I definitely don't think FSD is decades away as the skeptics claim.
2) I plan to finance my Model 3, pay it off and keep the car for as long as it lasts. So even if FSD is still a few years off, I think I will see it happen in the lifetime of my car. So getting it now will save me $1000.
3) When Tesla does release FSD, I think it will be AMAZING! Call me a fanboy, but I think Tesla will impress when they do finally release FSD. And I want to be ready to get it as soon as it is released!

Having said all that, I am still about 10 months away from getting my Model 3 according to my estimated delivery date. I will pay close attention to any FSD news in the coming months. There is still plenty of time for things to change for better or for worse. And if bad news comes out about Tesla's FSD in the next coming months, I will of course re-evaluate my position. But right now, count me as back in the "planning to get FSD" camp.

 

[boaterva]

FWIW, I went the same route on my X, for the reason that Elon said that upgrades would be included (we interpreted what he said to mean) for those that had already purchased the option. And, yes, I wanted to include it in the financing and keep the car for a long time.

We will see if we're lucky or nuts!

 

[Rockster]

And there’s the altruistic motivation, too: The more of us paying up front for FSD the more resources Tesla has to make it happen. After all, we gave them $1000 for a Model 3 that didn’t exist yet.

 

[diplomat33]

In the conference call, Musk hinted that the price of FSD could increase after it is released. So that is another factor too. If you wait until FSD is released and proven to work, you could be paying thousands of dollars more than if you had paid for it up front before hand. I think it is likely that the price will increase.

I am essentially banking on FSD being released in 2019 and being more expensive. So I want to get it before the price increase.

 

[RVD98072]

Hmm, I actually think the only reason to get fsd now is that the hardware probably isn’t powerful enough so Tesla will remove the fsd option for current cars at some point. But if you already paid you would be grandfathered in and hardware upgraded by Tesla.

 

[diplomat33]

Hmm, I actually think the only reason to get fsd now is that the hardware probably isn’t powerful enough so Tesla will remove the fsd option for current cars at some point. But if you already paid you would be grandfathered in and hardware upgraded by Tesla.

That is certainly one reason but I don't think it is the only reason.

 

[dampfred]

Hmm, I actually think the only reason to get fsd now is that the hardware probably isn’t powerful enough so Tesla will remove the fsd option for current cars at some point. But if you already paid you would be grandfathered in and hardware upgraded by Tesla.

That's exactly why I bought FSD for our X. Imagine the depreciation on the ones without if it turns out they get FSD released. Who will not want to have self-driving then? And unless you can buy (the more expensive) upgrade then, you're stuck with a manual car.

 

[Dave B]

And there’s the altruistic motivation, too: The more of us paying up front for FSD the more resources Tesla has to make it happen. After all, we gave them $1000 for a Model 3 that didn’t exist yet.

That's the way I look at it too, and also why I'll be getting FSD when I get my 3 "between March and June 2018."

If you want to see something happen sooner - contribute towards that goal. When it comes to FSD, I know that my programming skills to make that happen would lead to more deaths, not less. That's why I'll give them my money instead.

 

[Gwgan]

I would not trust any grandfather comment, is it in writing in the contract? Something has changed: the stock price. Instead of giving T a few grand now for a material return whenever, buy stock now then sell when FSD is really available. Of course you might be putting that money towards a new car by then since the old one won’t be upgradeable.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I know the consensus is that getting the FSD option now does not make sense. The argument goes that we have no idea when FSD will arrive, it could be years or maybe "never". Then there is the argument that we don't know if the hardware is even good enough so why spend money on an option if we later find out, it requires new hardware. So the argument is it is better to wait and see. I used to agree with that consensus. But the recent conference call has changed my mind. I am now planning to get the FSD option on my Model 3 unless something changes between now and when I get my car.

Here are my reasons:
1) Tesla is planning the FSD coast to coast demo in 3-6 months. Musk also said the neural net is solid and will learn exponentially. Both those statements taken together make me optimistic that they are close to getting FSD working. Now, I know that Tesla misses deadlines. After all, Musk said "3-6 months" for AP2 to diverge from AP1 and we all know how that panned out. So, yes, it is possible that the FSD demo will get pushed back again. But even if they do miss the 6 month deadline to do the demo, I think they are pretty close now to getting FSD working. I definitely don't think FSD is decades away as the skeptics claim.
2) I plan to finance my Model 3, pay it off and keep the car for as long as it lasts. So even if FSD is still a few years off, I think I will see it happen in the lifetime of my car. So getting it now will save me $1000.
3) When Tesla does release FSD, I think it will be AMAZING! Call me a fanboy, but I think Tesla will impress when they do finally release FSD. And I want to be ready to get it as soon as it is released!

Having said all that, I am still about 10 months away from getting my Model 3 according to my estimated delivery date. I will pay close attention to any FSD news in the coming months. There is still plenty of time for things to change for better or for worse. And if bad news comes out about Tesla's FSD in the next coming months, I will of course re-evaluate my position. But right now, count me as back in the "planning to get FSD" camp.

Yes, Yes, and Yes.

For all the reasons you stated. This is the most important option for me that makes me want no other car than this one. If there is one thing that scares the crap out of me it is losing the independence to drive. I know at some point I will become a danger to myself and others as a driver. I have had to watch that ability be taken away from too many. It is a demoralizing and crushing thing to have happen. That said, I certainly don't want to be a danger to others. This car and this technology is the only thing that will allow me to keep my independence and not be a threat to anyone else.

FSD will be the first option I tick off.

Dan

 

[N5329K]

That's exactly why I bought FSD for our X. Imagine the depreciation on the ones without if it turns out they get FSD released. Who will not want to have self-driving then? And unless you can buy (the more expensive) upgrade then, you're stuck with a manual car.

Buying FSD to support Tesla's development of FSD is fine and generous. Buying FSD with the expectation of actually using it is, in my opinion, probably misguided. I don't know the legal environment in Sweden, but given how long cars last in difficult climates, you're probably one, and maybe as many as two or three cars away from having an FSD vehicle that can be widely used whenever and wherever.
Robin

 

[landis]

FSD will be the first option I tick off.

it is going to be my second since EAP is a prerequisite. ;-)

Though LR and PUP are right up there too.

 

[Saghost]

And there’s the altruistic motivation, too: The more of us paying up front for FSD the more resources Tesla has to make it happen. After all, we gave them $1000 for a Model 3 that didn’t exist yet.

Yup. If you want Tesla to develop it, buy it. In addition to the funding, I'm sure Tesla pays attention to how many folks order it and that affects how they prioritize things based on what they think the interest level is.

If the "it's not there yet, don't order it now" crowd reached every buyer, Tesla might well choose not to develop it because they offered it but no one wanted it (or they could refund a few folks.)

Disclaimer: I never got to make this choice - my X is AP1. As soon as Tesla has a Level 3 car legal for highway use in my states I'll find a way to get a car with that hardware.

 

[cbutters]

I seriously think the EAP is overpriced for what it is, and the FSD (if features actually working) could/should be 5K instead of 3K.

My reasoning is no other car manufacturer charges such a huge premium (5k) for features like EAP. Lets be honest, its basically traffic aware cruise control at this point. Its nice, and yes probably the best implementation of any manufacturer; but recent cars I've owned like the Mazda CX-9 and the BMW i3 have just come with that tech as part of tech packages of which the entire bundles that included tons of other physical upgrades were way less than 5k.

Assuming all features were up to par and working; EAP should be a 2-3K option and FSD should be the 5K option.

Disclaimer: When I bought the Model X last Sep, I opted for the EAP, Its fun to play with, but I'm seriously considering dropping it when I configure my Model 3, I just don't know if I can justify paying that much again for like I say essentially traffic aware cruise control. Or at the very least I could put it this way, I'm happy to be paying the 49,000 for the model 3, because I think it is worth the value; but I'm not happy as I'll be paying the 5,000 for the EAP, because I think its overpriced.

 

[diplomat33]

I seriously think the EAP is overpriced for what it is, and the FSD (if features actually working) could/should be 5K instead of 3K.

My reasoning is no other car manufacturer charges such a huge premium (5k) for features like EAP. Lets be honest, its basically traffic aware cruise control at this point. Its nice, and yes probably the best implementation of any manufacturer; but recent cars I've owned like the Mazda CX-9 and the BMW i3 have just come with that tech as part of tech packages of which the entire bundles that included tons of other physical upgrades were way less than 5k.

Assuming all features were up to par and working; EAP should be a 2-3K option and FSD should be the 5K option.

Disclaimer: When I bought the Model X last Sep, I opted for the EAP, Its fun to play with, but I'm seriously considering dropping it when I configure my Model 3, I just don't know if I can justify paying that much again for like I say essentially traffic aware cruise control. Or at the very least I could put it this way, I'm happy to be paying the 49,000 for the model 3, because I think it is worth the value; but I'm not happy as I'll be paying the 5,000 for the EAP, because I think its overpriced.

I agree that the current EAP should be 2-3K and FSD should be 5K.

Also, keep in mind that Tesla is indicating that they will release the new features of EAP like auto highway exit and smart summon some time this year. If they do, then EAP will suddenly become a lot more than just a glorified traffic aware cruise control as you put it. Also, when they do add the new "enhanced" autopilot features, that will justify the $5k price. But FSD will be bumped up to $5k too. That is my prediction.

 

[TT97]

Yup. If you want Tesla to develop it, buy it. In addition to the funding, I'm sure Tesla pays attention to how many folks order it and that affects how they prioritize things based on what they think the interest level is.

If the "it's not there yet, don't order it now" crowd reached every buyer, Tesla might well choose not to develop it because they offered it but no one wanted it (or they could refund a few folks.)

Disclaimer: I never got to make this choice - my X is AP1. As soon as Tesla has a Level 3 car legal for highway use in my states I'll find a way to get a car with that hardware.

I continue to oscillate on FSD. It does feel like it is still pretty far off but on the flip side, I do feel that if I get it now, I'm locked in if any upgrades need to be done to the car and I am also on the mindset that it may get more expensive than $4k once it is available.

I don't need "Level 5." I am perfectly fine driving on city streets, where I really want it is for freeway/toll road driving, especially when there is stop and go traffic. It would be ideal if I can get to the freeway and have the ability to let the system take over and just notify me when I need to pay attention again.

It would make the decision simpler if Tesla would let us transfer the FSD to the next car if it was not available yet when replacing the 3.

 

[S3XY]

In the conference call, Musk hinted that the price of FSD could increase after it is released. So that is another factor too. If you wait until FSD is released and proven to work, you could be paying thousands of dollars more than if you had paid for it up front before hand. I think it is likely that the price will increase.

I am essentially banking on FSD being released in 2019 and being more expensive. So I want to get it before the price increase.

Yeah, I thought I heard him say it'll be worth $5k but then I wasn't sure if he was just referring to EAP. I'll have to look through the transcript since Elon is often hard to hear/understand on these calls.

 

[TT97]

I agree that the current EAP should be 2-3K and FSD should be 5K.

Also, keep in mind that Tesla is indicating that they will release the new features of EAP like auto highway exit and smart summon some time this year. If they do, then EAP will suddenly become a lot more than just a glorified traffic aware cruise control as you put it. Also, when they do add the new "enhanced" autopilot features, that will justify the $5k price. But FSD will be bumped up to $5k too. That is my prediction.

I don't think $5k is unreasonable. There is a lot included in EAP. On my current C Class, Driver Assist was $3,300 and Parking Assist was another $1,090. On the E Class, you can only get EAP equivalent as part of a premium package costing over $10k.

As the price is the same as the S/X, I do expect Tesla to include all the same features on the 3 that is available on the S/X.

 

[Electroman]

FSD will take a decade plus to come to fruition. What we can possibly expect in a year or two is some additional capability to drive in more complex situations than what AP does today.

I am *extremely satisfied* with the current state of AP today. For $5K AP is worth every penny. More important than all other options - AWS, PUP, SAS - combined, except LR.

For those who are gambiling on getting FSD - later don’t tell you have not been warned. Don’t come back and complain here if you never see it within the lifetime of your car.

Musk is visionary and highly intelligent, but I am not willing to dismiss others - almost everyone chasing FSD - who are pursuing LIDAR. This argument of to-LIDAR-or-not is not an open and shut case like the fool cells Toyota is pursuing.

 

[dss33]

Thanks for writing this up. I was completely set on not getting FSD, though you've changed my mind. I too would agree that EAP for $3k and FSD for $5k makes far more sense. And that may be how they change it in the future (versus a net price increase), though either way, it makes sense to finance that $3k now versus paying more in the future.

One more thing to consider - interest rates are super low still and they're only likely to go up with the new Fed chair who's far less of a dove (compared to Yellen). So with economies across the globe doing pretty well at the moment and still trending that way, it would make sense to take advantage of low financing now on FSD even more when you take low interest rates (that will probably go up) into account.

I can configure the car now (but I'm waiting for the white interior, so who knows when I'll pull the trigger) and I think you're correct on your reasoning. Even if his timeline is off, which is very likely is, they're getting closer and closer and there's so much pressure to take advantage of all of that hardware they have on AP 2/2.5 cars that they'd be nuts not to be taking it extremely seriously. And now with tens of thousands of Model 3s starting to get out there, the number of AP 2+ cars is increasing way faster than ever before. Imagine all of the data they're going to be getting versus what they had coming in from just S and X. Funnel that data through the neural net and wow, we're in for an exciting year or two.