I need reassurance I am making the right decision on a Model S

[mspohr]

very few people keep a car ten years, let alone fifteen. of course there are exceptions, but that's just not how 95% of people approach car ownership. a lot of people do tell themselves they will, though.

your argument about timing is sound -- your current car will continue to depreciate, and by next year the $7500 federal tax rebate will be gone. those are good points.

but honestly, trying to spin a Model S into a thrifty financial investment is an exercise in self-delusion. it's an absolutely amazing car and you should definitely get one if you can afford it without financial stress, but it's not going to save you a ton of money in the long run.

I tend to keep my cars a long time.. always more than 10 years... my current "second car" is an 18 year old Land Rover with 185,000 miles. I plan to keep my Model S "forever". I don't need to have the latest technology so I can resist the siren song of having the latest and greatest tech. The car itself should run "forever" and I have had nothing but fantastically great service experiences (in Northern California, Rocklin) and I'm not worried about the cost if something needs to be replaced. (Over the years, I have put a fair amount of money into my Land Rover to keep it running and I expect lower cost for the Tesla... It's almost always cheaper to keep an old car running than buying new.)

 

[dhh12]

How exactly do you "run out of charge" in traffic when you aren't going that fast? You do know SC access is primarily to enable long distance travel, right?

The exact reason that SC's are no longer free - put a wall charger in your garage...

 

[calisnow]

So this is an interesting thought, as its one of the reasons i figured getting a Tesla would be a smart 10+ year "investment" in my mind. If new batteries wont work in the current models, lets say 5 years from now, am i left with a close to useless high millage model s, with no option but to spend another $50K for a refreshed model?

Why would it be close to useless 5 years from now? I don't follow.

 

[calisnow]

No. You have not done enough research. You don't buy a Tesla to save money. It's because you want to be part of the future and have money to burn. This is an expensive car for what you get. It drives and feels like a $35,000 car but there's Nothing else like it. Repairs out of warranty may be expensive.

If money is an issue please wait to get the Model 3 which will give you all the benefits at 1/2 the cost.

Sorry - what $35K car does it drive like?

 

[SageBrush]

Have I done my research on this enough? Or am i misunderstanding how this should work. I just want to make sure that me getting off of a car in which i owe no money, for an expensive electric car, is actually a SMART decision for me... especially while my Audi has some value (i've been told its worth about $18K).

These value questions are hard to answer but if your intent is to compare the Model S to an expensive Audi then I think you are on firm ground in deciding to go Tesla EV

 

[calisnow]

I'd suggest to throw "financially smart" out when you are buying a car, and ask yourself
- Will it make you happy,
- Can you afford it without stressing yourself. Including ownership costs.

If the answers are yes - then go for it.

I will say though that I really really doubt you'll keep your Tesla for 15 years, so don't go in with that expectation.
- Reliability isn't that great, and repair costs are high. First 4 years not an issue. Next 4 you can buy ESA. 15 years ... time will tell, but signs right now seem to point towards "not a smart idea".
- Things will get outdated, and you'll be back here lusting over Model S 2021, trying to justify it as a financially smart decision, knowing very well it is not.

I disagree. I've kept spreadsheets of finicky high mileage high dollar cars. It is away always cheaper to keep repairing them than to buy new again and suffer more depreciation. I expect the same will be with Tesla. And it's the most reliable car I've had so far vs BMW and Benz - but I started with 2016 and 2017 model S's.

 

[EV-lutioin]

Drink the Cool Aid, you won't regret it!

 

[Scott-P]

I bought a Model S 60 in DEC 2016 which very similar thoughts. I tend to keep my cars for a long time (1997 SAAB until 2005/190K miles; 2005 Mercedes until 2016/180K miles), and plan to keep the S until it dies, I die or I just HAVE to have something else. My car has had some issues (we have replaced the MCU twice, as well as recent replacement and shimming of cameras), despite which I would say unequivocally: GO BUY IT. The 75 is currently the best bang/buck out there (better than the 60 when I bought it...), it is an absolute joy to drive, and has the best overall tech integration of any vehicle I have ever seen (not perfect by a long chalk, but definitely getting better every couple of weeks). While service is imperfect as well (as service invariably is, since the only perfect service is not to need service at all...), they have been responsive, helpful, and have gone out of there way to make it straightforward and right (I live in Seattle, it is pretty dense with Teslae here, maybe not like CA, but still well populated...).

You do need to approach the vehicle with the correct mindset: If you are looking for a super sports car, this isn't one. Even the P100D is a really high accelerating grand touring sedan. If you are looking for a super luxurious car, it isn't that either. I personally prefer the minimalist aesthetic of the car, but it is not an S Class. It IS a remarkably fun, remarkably comfortable and practical electric car with very good technology which will change the way you approach driving, commuting, and will likely continue to evolve.

I don't think you need to drink the cool-aid (I don't think I have), but if you want one, go buy it. 5 months in and I am still enjoying every minute.

 

[jerry33]

I live 5 miles from supercharger, so i go charge everytime it gets down to 30 miles.

And because of this kind of behaviour by some folks, Tesla took away free Supercharging for new cars. Thanks!

Also, that's not the way to prolong the life of the battery. Charging at home daily and starting the day with a full tank means you don't run out of charge, or even come close, on any normal day's drive. Don't treat the Tesla like an ICE, if you do, you'll be disappointed.

 

[naylorman32]

This thread has been a huge help to me. I feel like i still have so many questions. Alot of you have brought up many great points....

let me see if I can clarify my own thinking (basically talking to myself here):

If my Audi gets up to 100K miles in the next 3 years lets say, i'm left with a very depreciated asset- will fetch me maybe 8K on the used market. I trade in the 8K car to get another 50-60K ICE car (another Audi Q5 for arguments sake). So at this stage, i've spent 50K for a car that unless ICE cars change their philosophy, wont get "better" as time goes on with software improvements.

Now I could trade in my Audi now... worth about 19K, and spend an additional $50K to get a Model s. 5 years from now, when my car has about 60-70K miles on it ( i really dont drive far, maybe 10 miles a day on average), my model S should be a) significantly improved from a tech aspect via firmware updates... b) still have 98% of its battery range.... c) worth more than $50K just judging by the market i've seen online.

now alot of you have mentioned the service aspects of the car... outside of the 8 year warranty, what are people spending on average per year? My audi in the past 3 years has cost me about $3K, and thats including new brakes.

so i know its NOT a financially smart move to spend money when I dont need to, but i'm thinking in terms of a 5 year window right now, in that i'll eventually be spending this money anyway.. so why not take a free $10K in gov't incentives while I can and get a car I normally probably wouldnt purchase at full sticker price.... make sense? I don't know if i'm trying to talk myself into just pulling the trigger here, or actually making a logical argument for why NOW is the time to jump on it.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

now alot of you have mentioned the service aspects of the car... outside of the 8 year warranty, what are people spending on average per year? My audi in the past 3 years has cost me about $3K, and thats including new brakes.

Your main expense, if everything goes fine - is the annual service and tires.
Annual service runs you at an average $500ish a year.
Tires, the 19" are not bad, comparable in cost to most other cars.
Go to tirerack.com and price out the tires, 19's will last you conservatively 30-35K miles, 21's 15K miles - some people have done better, some have done worse. You could always get a nail.

Now the wildcard - if unexpected stuff happens,
- You hit a pothole in your 21's and damage the rim ~ 500 - 2000
- you hit a pothole and blow a 21" tire ~ 400ish
- door handle gives out ~ 1000 (happens quite a bit)
- windshield breaks - $2k-$3k (for the new ones)
- you were opening a bottle and your hand slips and you break the 17" .. thousands
- someone hits you, insurance doesn't cover - many thousands.

=========================
Here is what I'd suggest,

Step #1: Ask yourself can you afford it without being hella poor? Yes - go to step #2, else go to step #3
Step #2: Go for a test drive, I'd be surprised if you don't end up buying it.
Step #3: DO NOT test drive this car, or you'll end up buying it.

 

[mspohr]

This thread has been a huge help to me. I feel like i still have so many questions. Alot of you have brought up many great points....

let me see if I can clarify my own thinking (basically talking to myself here):

If my Audi gets up to 100K miles in the next 3 years lets say, i'm left with a very depreciated asset- will fetch me maybe 8K on the used market. I trade in the 8K car to get another 50-60K ICE car (another Audi Q5 for arguments sake). So at this stage, i've spent 50K for a car that unless ICE cars change their philosophy, wont get "better" as time goes on with software improvements.

Now I could trade in my Audi now... worth about 19K, and spend an additional $50K to get a Model s. 5 years from now, when my car has about 60-70K miles on it ( i really dont drive far, maybe 10 miles a day on average), my model S should be a) significantly improved from a tech aspect via firmware updates... b) still have 98% of its battery range.... c) worth more than $50K just judging by the market i've seen online.

now alot of you have mentioned the service aspects of the car... outside of the 8 year warranty, what are people spending on average per year? My audi in the past 3 years has cost me about $3K, and thats including new brakes.

so i know its NOT a financially smart move to spend money when I dont need to, but i'm thinking in terms of a 5 year window right now, in that i'll eventually be spending this money anyway.. so why not take a free $10K in gov't incentives while I can and get a car I normally probably wouldnt purchase at full sticker price.... make sense? I don't know if i'm trying to talk myself into just pulling the trigger here, or actually making a logical argument for why NOW is the time to jump on it.

The cheapest thing to do is to keep the Audi and drive it into the ground.
It would be a stretch to have the Tesla pencil out to be cheaper.
However, you have some other priorities...
You will enjoy the Tesla and with the tax incentives, low maintenance cost and low "fuel" cost, it will be cheaper than you think.
The Tesla has a few thousand fewer parts than the Audi. My mom just had to have the transmission replaced on her Audi... $6,000. Tesla doesn't have a transmission, clutch, engine and all of those other parts bolted onto the engine in the front. Just an electric motor (one moving part) and a differential gear to the wheels. Nobody has had a Tesla for more than the 8 year drive train warranty but there are a few high mileage Teslas out there which seem to be holding up fine.
Bottom line is you can try to make this a logical decision... but it's not.
For me, I was hooked at the test drive and I didn't even try to pencil out the cost. It was a lot more money that I ever thought I would spend on a car but it has been a complete joy every time I drive it and I have absolutely no regrets.

 

[Hugh Mannity]

Get it because it's the right thing to do. ICE vehicles are on their way out. Help us accelerate that

 

[mspohr]

Your main expense, if everything goes fine - is the annual service and tires.
Annual service runs you at an average $500ish a year.
Tires, the 19" are not bad, comparable in cost to most other cars.
Go to tirerack.com and price out the tires, 19's will last you conservatively 30-35K miles, 21's 15K miles - some people have done better, some have done worse. You could always get a nail.

Now the wildcard - if unexpected stuff happens,
- You hit a pothole in your 21's and damage the rim ~ 500 - 2000
- you hit a pothole and blow a 21" tire ~ 400ish
- door handle gives out ~ 1000 (happens quite a bit)
- you were opening a bottle and your hand slips and you break the 17" .. thousands
- someone hits you, insurance doesn't cover - many thousands.

=========================
Here is what I'd suggest,

Step #1: Ask yourself can you afford it without being hella poor? Yes - go to step #2, else go to step #3
Step #2: Go for a test drive, I'd be surprised if you don't end up buying it.
Step #3: DO NOT test drive this car, or you'll end up buying it.

I have to agree with this advice. Once I took the test drive, I bought the car the same day.
You didn't mention if you had taken a test drive...
I'll guess not.
If you can't afford it, DON'T take the test drive.
If you can afford it, take a test drive... you'll buy it.

 

[David29]

This thread has been a huge help to me. I feel like i still have so many questions. Alot of you have brought up many great points....

let me see if I can clarify my own thinking (basically talking to myself here):

If my Audi gets up to 100K miles in the next 3 years lets say, i'm left with a very depreciated asset- will fetch me maybe 8K on the used market. I trade in the 8K car to get another 50-60K ICE car (another Audi Q5 for arguments sake). So at this stage, i've spent 50K for a car that unless ICE cars change their philosophy, wont get "better" as time goes on with software improvements.

Now I could trade in my Audi now... worth about 19K, and spend an additional $50K to get a Model s. 5 years from now, when my car has about 60-70K miles on it ( i really dont drive far, maybe 10 miles a day on average), my model S should be a) significantly improved from a tech aspect via firmware updates... b) still have 98% of its battery range.... c) worth more than $50K just judging by the market i've seen online.

now alot of you have mentioned the service aspects of the car... outside of the 8 year warranty, what are people spending on average per year? My audi in the past 3 years has cost me about $3K, and thats including new brakes.

so i know its NOT a financially smart move to spend money when I dont need to, but i'm thinking in terms of a 5 year window right now, in that i'll eventually be spending this money anyway.. so why not take a free $10K in gov't incentives while I can and get a car I normally probably wouldnt purchase at full sticker price.... make sense? I don't know if i'm trying to talk myself into just pulling the trigger here, or actually making a logical argument for why NOW is the time to jump on it.

Couple of comments -- I suspect that you are being unrealistic about spending only $50K, net over a trade-in, for a Tesla. Because the figures you use imply a sale price of $69K for the Tesla. Most people buy some or many of the option packages, or buy larger batteries, or both. So you are more likely looking at a Tesla with a starting price well north of $70K. So maybe you should try configuring one to see what you would want in terms of colors and options, and see what the cost would be. There are no deals and no negotiations, no discounts etc. (except for the potential tax rebates). So I urge you to test your cost assumption by looking at specific model/configuration that you would want.

Second, even though I love my Model S, i seriously doubt you (or I) would still be driving the same car in the 10-15 years you mentioned. Yes, if you drive only a few miles a month, it may last that long. But assuming so is risky. And when I say "last,"I don't mean just endure, physically, I also mean that the company and its support infrastructure will be both intact and still supporting a 10-year-old car. Tesla may not survive. The technology changes quickly, so today battery types may be replaced. Charging systems will likely evolve, not just physically but how they are administered and priced. The company may disappear or morph into something different. Parts may not be available (many parts are hard to get today as it is). And maybe most important, in 10-15 years the competition and the driving environment may be vastly different. So you may well change your mind, whatever you decided today.

Please don't get me wrong. I am not trying to discourage you from buying a Tesla. What I am trying to suggest is that your argument for getting one should not be premised on the car lasting 10-15 years and your wanting to keep driving it that long. With technology this dynamic and so many changes underway in the industry, the planning horizon is short.

So by all means, if you want one and can affords it, buy a Tesla and enjoy it. But be realistic about the probability that you will still have the same (futuristic) car in 10-15 years.

 

[roblab]

[QUOTE="tpham07, post: 2079952, member: 59064"...
If you want me to tell you it was a smart decision, haha :| meh. Tesla's are nice to have, but nobody buys a tesla to "save money." Some people buy it to save the environment, most buy it to have a cool car. And it is a very cool car. I will say the 75D is the best financial choice however. The 90 and 100, while providing more range, is not as big of a bang for your buck as the 75 especially with how close superchargers are spaced.[/QUOTE]

All depends. I have a 90D. I like to travel. Just today I had to make a 200 mile circle and the Tesla made it enjoyable, while the 90D made it doable. I would hate to be on my rounds and find I needed to make a 15 mile one way extra stop with only 200 mi 90% charge.

This doesn't happen often, but that's why I love the 90D. I have range when I need it. Sure, I could also go out of my way to use a supercharger (like going out of your way to buy a tank of gas, right?), but I don't have to. Yes, it cost more, but that "financial" choice ends up depending a lot on where you live and drive.

I understand there are Leaf owners who only use their cars in town, maybe 20 miles a day.

 

[naylorman32]

Ok so a couple things...

I did do a test drive about a month ago... my god was it nice. thats kind of where i began to snowball down this road to the point where i'm now seriously talking with the sales team and trying to convince my girlfriend and even my dad why I SHOULD purchase one.

2nd- so alot of comments are that technology is quickly evolving in terms of batteries, features, and so on. REALISTICALLY, outside of auto pilot features and maybe more efficient/cheaper batteries that cannot be retrofitted in lets say 6-7 years to a 2017 model, are there things people are specifically worried about that would make them say " i honestly doubt you'd be driving this car in 10 years?" (outside of something like structural damage). This might be way too forward thinking.

3rd- so for the pricing, the car i'm looking at is sticker price 79200, so subtracting 19K, and then the tax incentives, it comes out to be about $50K once paid off. that doesnt include service costs of course, but thank you to everyone who has mentioned their experiences on this front so far.

 

[naylorman32]

i'll also add- i apologize if it seems like my mind is running in circles over this decision, but I think given my specific situation with a "relatively" low mileage car, and the short window we all have for these tax incentives, i'm sure alot of potential tesla owners are thinking along the same lines I am.

 

[MXWing]

I came from a Q5 to Model X. Over twice the price but easily over twice the car. No regrets. Wife cried when the Q5 was gone from the garage - I don't think she remembers we ever owned it today.

Take the full credit while it is still here. Buy it if you can afford it and is not irresponsible for you to do so.

Ignore the driving the Q5 to the ground or picking up some other 3rd string ev nonsense. You only drive so many cars before you die. It's a great buy in time with AP2 maturing and more Model S bang for the buck.

There is also a better potential for cars to improve but as long as you can physically drive a car yourself I don't see the huge deal is on owning it for five years at a min to make the depreciation and finances make sense.

Your 15 year window is unrealistic. Maybe it can last that long but I don't think anyone gets a Tesla thinking it will. You are not giving enough value to driving around one of the most bad azz cars on the planet.

Car doesn't turn into a pumpkin in 3 years and Tesla leases are absurdly expensive.

Is it actually smart to lease a Tesla?

 

[MXWing]

I've seen 6 figure software engineers stand in line for hours for free ice cream so getting a car just to charge at work for free makes perfect ROI sense.