I wonder if Tesla is really moving as swiftly as possible.

[Garlan Garner]

Building the machines that build the machines is what takes the time. One does not tool a factory to triple or quadruple production rates with an entirely new car with new technology overnight.

Dan

Does anyone know how Tesla built those M3 cars they had for reveal day? They all seemed to be identical. I suppose they weren't built by hand.

 

[Winston Wolf]

I keep hearing Tesla talk about the word "accelerated". I mean...pencils are down....right? What in the world is going to take another year to do? Vacation time? I'm thinking....you already know how to make a car. How difficult would it be to duplicate the process for another version? Unless an fully revamped production process has emerged into it's own project. To which, I'm not very interested in.

Not sure if serious?

 

[Winston Wolf]

Does anyone know how Tesla built those M3 cars they had for reveal day? They all seemed to be identical. I suppose they weren't built by hand.

Those were prototypes. Certainly hand assembled.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Not sure if serious?

I'm dead serious.

 

[bonnie]

The primary thing that concerns me is that a year from now.......I still won't have my car. I'll still be sitting here typing in this forum.

I keep hearing Tesla talk about the word "accelerated". I mean...pencils are down....right? What in the world is going to take another year to do? Vacation time? I'm thinking....you already know how to make a car. How difficult would it be to duplicate the process for another version? Unless an fully revamped production process has emerged into it's own project. To which, I'm not very interested in.

Anywho...... I suppose I'll be here typing and driving ICE a year from now.

MS is just too expensive - else I would have purchased one already.

I think you're confusing 'pencils down' with 'no further design work to be done'. When I heard that phrase, my assumption was that the design v1 would be done - and then ready for review, changes as required, updated, rinse, repeat. After the final design, there are validation activities to be completed, real testing, stack up analyses in prep for creating drawings for mfg parts, molds to be made, more tests, etc.

What in the world is going to take another year? Well, the X mfg process is still being refined after first ones shipped just under a year ago. Maybe they want to avoid that with the M3 launch. They can't afford small issues with a large number of products shipped.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I think you're confusing 'pencils down' with 'no further design work to be done'. When I heard that phrase, my assumption was that the design v1 would be done - and then ready for review, changes as required, updated, rinse, repeat. After the final design, there are validation activities to be completed, real testing, stack up analyses in prep for creating drawings for mfg parts, molds to be made, more tests, etc.

What in the world is going to take another year? Well, the X mfg process is still being refined after first ones shipped just under a year ago. Maybe they want to avoid that with the M3 launch. They can't afford small issues with a large number of products shipped.

What did "pencils down" mean as far as Elon is concerned?

 

[bonnie]

What did "pencils down" mean as far as Elon is concerned?

Likely meant what I said - pencils down so design can be evaluated. Design of anything, esp a car, isn't a one-step process.

 

[McHoffa]

Just to put this into perspective, I've been waiting for the Model 3 since 2006 when Tesla first announced the Roadster!!!

Me too! When he posted that first master plan, my first thought was "I'm getting one of those!" and here I am ten year later with two deposits down....

 

[Garlan Garner]

Me too! When he posted that first master plan, my first thought was "I'm getting one of those!" and here I am ten year later with two deposits down....

You are very patient.

Does not exude "accelerated" in my opinion. I don't have a choice but to wait. So... in a year I will have to somehow curtail my frustration.

 

[KJD]

To be honest if Elon focused more on Tesla it might even slow Model 3 down. Remember, perfect is the enemy of good.

Sad but oh so true.

 

[Chopr147]

I can imagine Tesla engineers rolling their eyes each time Elon tweets about M3 designs. They are like "what?, when did we decide to do that? "

 

[JeffK]

Does not exude "accelerated" in my opinion.

As stated though accelerated solely refers to the faster scaling of production in 2018 vs 2020. This is an acceleration of two years.

Only recently has the technology and infrastructure been in place the make the affordable Model 3 possible.

 

[WileyTheMan]

Likely meant what I said - pencils down so design can be evaluated. Design of anything, esp a car, isn't a one-step process.

It's also a euphemism for no more "feature creep". No more "let me tweak this one small thing" or "this new feature would sell so many more units!".

 

[bonnie]

It's also a euphemism for no more "feature creep". No more "let me tweak this one small thing" or "this new feature would sell so many more units!".

Can't agree more!

 

[MP3Mike]

I think you're confusing 'pencils down' with 'no further design work to be done'. When I heard that phrase, my assumption was that the design v1 would be done - and then ready for review, changes as required, updated, rinse, repeat. After the final design, there are validation activities to be completed, real testing, stack up analyses in prep for creating drawings for mfg parts, molds to be made, more tests, etc. .

That isn't how I understand it. How can suppliers start making parts, press molds, etc. to be ready by July, 2017 if the designs aren't final yet?

 

[bonnie]

That isn't how I understand it. How can suppliers start making parts, press molds, etc. to be ready by July, 2017 if the designs aren't final yet?

I think the designs are final - which means that pencils are down, requirements are locked in place, and now it goes through review/validation process with any necessary updates. You don't just go from designers putting pencils down to making molds. A whole lot of other people, including suppliers, should be crawling all over the design. Suppliers may make recommendations for minor changes that will make it more manufacturable. Hopefully all those folks have been involved in early design reviews, but again, you don't just go from pencils down to making molds.

 

[alseTrick]

I'm pretty confident Tesla is dragging their feet.

I think they like missing their own guidance and setting the investment world against them.

For sure.

 

[Garlan Garner]

As stated though accelerated solely refers to the faster scaling of production in 2018 vs 2020. This is an acceleration of two years.

Only recently has the technology and infrastructure been in place the make the affordable Model 3 possible.

Agreed.

This is the word accelerate that I am speaking of. Its in the mission statement of the company.
"Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy."

To me that means that they want folks driving sustainable energy cars "quickly" - not the normal transition. Being late to promised dates and the like isn't boding well towards that statement.
Is this a crushing issue? Absolutely not.

I'm not sure what kind of transition timeframe Elon thinks/thought was "normal", however - 2 years to go to deliver a mass produced EV.....is a bit long in my estimation. Of course I know that Tesla does not have to respond to my menial option, nor a thousand people of the same opinion, however I would believe its appropriate to state in this forum. Hopefully without any blowback.

 

[esk8mw]

Agreed.

This is the word accelerate that I am speaking of. Its in the mission statement of the company.
"Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy."

To me that means that they want folks driving sustainable energy cars "quickly" - not the normal transition. Being late to promised dates and the like isn't boding well towards that statement.
Is this a crushing issue? Absolutely not.

I'm not sure what kind of transition timeframe Elon thinks/thought was "normal", however - 2 years to go to deliver a mass produced EV.....is a bit long in my estimation. Of course I know that Tesla does not have to respond to my menial option, nor a thousand people of the same opinion, however I would believe its appropriate to state in this forum. Hopefully without any blowback.

2 years is a bit long to deliver a mass-produced long range EV? Based on what? There's literally no precedent. Tesla is also a new car company trying to multiply production 10fold from 2015 to 2018. This is also without precedent. All of this requires building a gigafactory. You guessed it, no precedent there either. 2 years sounds extraordinarily fast to me.

Am I missing some really subtle sarcasm or something?

 

[msnow]

Agreed.

This is the word accelerate that I am speaking of. Its in the mission statement of the company.
"Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy."

To me that means that they want folks driving sustainable energy cars "quickly" - not the normal transition. Being late to promised dates and the like isn't boding well towards that statement.
Is this a crushing issue? Absolutely not.

I'm not sure what kind of transition timeframe Elon thinks/thought was "normal", however - 2 years to go to deliver a mass produced EV.....is a bit long in my estimation. Of course I know that Tesla does not have to respond to my menial option, nor a thousand people of the same opinion, however I would believe its appropriate to state in this forum. Hopefully without any blowback.

No blowback from me. I think one lesson Elon and Tesla has learned from the Model X issues is #1 set realistic expectations and #2 don't push out cars at the expense of quality. I'd much rather wait a couple extra months than have to deal with quality issues after delivery.