If car companies can't invent a viable EV solution to compete, what happens to Elon's vison?

[Sparky]

But how many people will be willing to spend 4-5 times more for that convenience (my guess)? "People will never pay for streaming music, they like buying something physical like a CD." Expectations change, and millions of cars sitting around all the time is just too wasteful economically (not to mention people choose cars that are way too much for 90% of their needs just because sometimes they need those capabilities). Just look at New York City. In most of Manhattan only about 25% of households own even a single car, and presumably they like having their own things as much as other people. They've just adapted to economic reality. I'd love to have my own personal table at my favorite restaurant that nobody else ever used, but I accept that it's not realistic. What seems "normal" to people changes all the time.

^^This
It seemed strange when I first started using Zipcar on the East coast. But I quickly got used to the convenience of taking a cab to my hotel and using the Zipcars next door. Cheaper too when factoring in the $35/day parking fees and the fact that I would rent for 4 days but only need a car of "my own" for about 10 hours out of those 4 days.
"Normal" can change very quickly. Even for me. It's the nature of disruption as indicated by the fact that I can post this from my phone while ordering a couple of tacos built to my spec (2 pork-belly with pickled onion and 2 poke, extra siracha, guac and chips) from the corner hut up the street.

 

[CHG-ON]

Apologies for not reading all the replies, as I bet this has been said. But I want to chime in anyway.

What will happen is that all the investment dollars will flow to Tesla. Then they will have the humongous and unenviable job of trying to grow at lightspeed to satisfy demand. I say unenviable because the risk of failure will be huge. But I will love seeing the stock that I bought at 22 go to 10,000!

Seriously though, the rest of the industry will get their act together and build cars that the public demands. The tech will be there. Though they may be stuck buying the battery tech, or the batteries from Tesla (then my stock might only go to 9,500). To me, the bigger question is whether the other companies will have the creativity and the balls to do what Tesla is doing and hopefully will continue to do: break the mold. It's awfully hard for a corporate behemoth to change to that type of culture.

One major concern I have for Tesla over the long haul is what will happen when Elon leaves. Who will be his spiritual successor? Who will carry that mantle of true passion? That is what truly scares me about the future of Tesla and the EV mission.

 

[Sparky]

One major concern I have for Tesla over the long haul is what will happen when Elon leaves. Who will be his spiritual successor? Who will carry that mantle of true passion?

Good point, really. I nominate Bonnie. (even though I bought on IPO day at $16.75, not enough shares to have much sway).

 

[azred]

I didn't know the Chevy Bolt was subpar. It meets the range and price requirement, and has lots of cool tech gadgets people like. I don't know why "sexy" looks is critical. There are lots of various shaped cars out there and people buy them.

We need EVs in all flavors and sizes. Not everyone wants to drive a sedan. The more non-Tesla EVs the better, as that will spur on the public charging network, which will benefit us all.

The Chevrolet Sonic is a car with tepid demand, so does it makes sense to think Chevrolet can install electric in a Sonic, add ten or fifteen grand to the price and people will buy it in large nmbers? Fortunately for Chevy customers, prices will surely be very negotiable soon after introduction.

 

[EVNow]

Seriously though, the rest of the industry will get their act together and build cars that the public demands. The tech will be there. Though they may be stuck buying the battery tech, or the batteries from Tesla (then my stock might only go to 9,500).

Seems to me LG already has a competitive battery. We should start seeing competitive EVs from other OEMS soonish. What they won't have is a proprietary reliable charging network.

 

[kenbefound]

Elon has, and will continue it appears, to show them exactly how to go about doing the task. He has also shown the world that compliance cars are produced to be as ugly and unappealing as possible so as to syphon as few ICE sales as possible while still meeting CA ZeV requirements. These compliance cars are not BeVs but bastardizations of the BeV concept to reach a business goal.

Educate the people and company's by example. I suspect this approach will work.

Perfectly stated!

 

[Pdub2015]

One major concern I have for Tesla over the long haul is what will happen when Elon leaves. Who will be his spiritual successor? Who will carry that mantle of true passion? That is what truly scares me about the future of Tesla and the EV mission.

"Over the long haul," I wouldn't worry too much about this, as it seems to me (from a very limited viewpoint, admittedly) that Tesla has and is attracting top notch talent, and passionate leaders are and will be in place when he eventually moves on. Remember, he wasn't the only one to launch Tesla, just the richest!

 

[MP3Mike]

A Model S/X has over 1700 cells and appears to be a more complex manufacturing problem than the motors.

While true, it is actually way more than that. There are more than 7,000 cells in a Model S/X battery pack. (7,104 in a 85kWh pack.)

 

[wdolson]

"Over the long haul," I wouldn't worry too much about this, as it seems to me (from a very limited viewpoint, admittedly) that Tesla has and is attracting top notch talent, and passionate leaders are and will be in place when he eventually moves on. Remember, he wasn't the only one to launch Tesla, just the richest!

Initially Elon was a mostly hands off investor, kind of like his involvement in Solar City. When the Roadster ran into massive problems, he came in and after seeing what the problems were, he forced out the first CEO and took over. He was the guiding force who steered Tesla away from an early death and made it successful.

More importantly he's become the face of the company. People hang on every Tweet he sends. There are rumors he will step down from Tesla when the Model 3 launches so he can concentrate on Space X and I think it's highly likely that he will. Space X is his true passion.

There are other people who can step into the CEO job and be competent, I would think JB Straubel would be the most likely replacement, but nobody can draw attention like Elon Musk can. Apple has survived Steve Jobs' death thus far, but Apple presentations just don't have the flavor they had when Jobs was at the helm. Tesla may be similar without Elon.

While true, it is actually way more than that. There are more than 7,000 cells in a Model S/X battery pack. (7,104 in a 85kWh pack.)

Dyslexic moment! I transposed the 1 and the 7. Thanks for the correction.

 

[Topher]

There are rumors he will step down from Tesla when the Model 3 launches so he can concentrate on Space X and I think it's highly likely that he will. Space X is his true passion.

EM is on record as saying that he will remain at Tesla until he dies, though not necessarily as CEO. I, like many people, love his presentation style. Not polished, with lots of 'um's, but then he gives a simple easy to understand explanation of why rockets need to go sideways, probably helping more people than every NASA presentation on the same subject.

I won't begrudge him a long life as a 'simple engineer', but I will miss him if he gives up the public life.

Thank you kindly.

 

[wdolson]

I am concerned Elon Musk will end up shortening his life. He doesn't take very good care of himself. He will often get busy and forget to eat much for days, lose 10 pounds of weight, then eat like a horse and end up 10 pounds overweight. That's very hard on a body over time and it's tougher to manage and one gets older.

He is one of those people who thrives on stress, so I don't see him getting a stress induced heart attack. The people who do tend to get distressed by stress rather than thrive on it. Still he may develop some other lifestyle related health issues as he gets older and one of them could kill him.

 

[eloder]

True, though overhead electric lines will probably be necessary in mountain passes and they will be a maintenance headache.

There are gas stations out there that run without electricity?

 

[wdolson]

There are gas stations out there that run without electricity?

Donner Pass doesn't have any gas stations next to the railroad tracks. Most of the mountain passes in the west today don't have electric power lines running next to the tracks and maintaining those lines when mountain blizzards blow through is going to be a pain. Many of the passes used by the railroads in the west were feats of engineering to build in the first place. It's tough getting over the Sierra Nevada mountains, that's where there are only two places with tracks crossing them, one is in the low mountains at the extreme southern end at Tehachapi, only 3700 ft, and Donner Pass (7000 ft) east of Sacramento. The routes through the Cascade Mountains are a little easier, but there are only two, Stevens Pass (4000 ft) near the Canadian Border and the Columbia River Gorge near sea level with tracks both north and south of the River.

The Rockies have similar problems with their passes. The Moffat Tunnel in Colorado is 9200 ft above sea level. The other passes over the Continental Divide have highways nearby and probably power not far away for roadside services.

Donner Pass got so much snow in 1972 a passenger train was stranded near the summit for a week due to snow. That kind of snow brings down power lines too.

 

[tomas]

How Off topic can you get?

 

[Takumi]

- Honda: has survived through great ICE engineering, but I think that it will be swallowed up by Toyota or another large Jaoanese group as electrification takes its toll.

Honda's repeating history. Starting with the motorcycle.
Honda's Mugen Shinden San Electric Superbike

 

[rcarpen22]

I didn't read whole thread, so i apologize if it's been covered, but I really think there is almost zero chance that the OP's scenario will happen. As someone stated, Tesla freely offered their IP. It looks as though Porsche immediately set out making a copy of the Model S chassis and then attempted to improve it. You can bet that whatever the Mission E ends up being, it will be good. Ungodly expensive, but really good. They won't invest big bucks in an 800V charging infrastructure without plans to produce more cars. I've read rumblings that their charge stations will likely be available to the whole family, Porsche, Audi, VW... If each of those manufacturers had one Tesla level EV, that pretty much precludes the OP's original concern. Then, of course, there is Apple and all of the nonexistent future tech/car companies. I think the future is bright.

 

[wdolson]

How Off topic can you get?

Sorry. my mind wanders and my fingers follow...