If electrification, autonomous driving and ride sharing are the inevitable future....

[RationalOptimist]

...it's fun to speculate what market share in the auto industry is likely to be by around 2035, the year when anything else would be "a horse". Here's my guess (I'm lumping in ride-sharing fees with auto sales as both models will be valid. It's possible the former will be greater than the latter).

Google 10%
Uber 10% (wouldn't be surprised to see partnership between these two companies at some point)
Tesla 20% (based on best engineering, infrastructure. Top revenue source in 2035? a steering-wheel-less uber-killer).
Currently unknown start-up or start-ups with incredible tech 10%
Apple 10% (they might surprise us, but they've left it late)
All existing ICE companies combined 40% (a couple will succeed in partially adapting, most will shrivel and die).

An analog would be to try to predict the 20-year future of the media market in 1995. Back then it would have impossible to imagine Fox, Time Warner, New York Times, Hearst, Conde Nast, being massively outperformed by Google/Youtube, Facebook, Yahoo, yet that's what happened.

In that world, it's likely that unlike the current commodified auto world where margins are squeezed to the bone, several companies will be able to carve out their own unique ecosystem and therefore are able to maintain margins. Given the scale of the auto market, it's easy to imagine that one or more of the companies above will build a $trillion of market cap (in today's dollars). It's possible the total number of cars sold annually will fall (because of more efficient use through ride-sharing, all good for the planet). But an auto-maker's revenue (and certainly profit) per car will rise.

I'm curious how others think the market will likely be carved up in 20 yrs time. Try an edit of the bolded para above?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

...it's fun to speculate what market share in the auto industry is likely to be by around 2035, the year when anything else would be "a horse". Here's my guess (I'm lumping in ride-sharing fees with auto sales as both models will be valid. It's possible the former will be greater than the latter).

Google 10%
Uber 10% (wouldn't be surprised to see partnership between these two companies at some point)
Tesla 20% (based on best engineering, infrastructure. Top revenue source in 2035? a steering-wheel-less uber-killer).
Currently unknown start-up or start-ups with incredible tech 10%
Apple 10% (they might surprise us, but they've left it late)
All existing ICE companies combined 40% (a couple will succeed in partially adapting, most will shrivel and die).

An analog would be to try to predict the 20-year future of the media market in 1995. Back then it would have impossible to imagine Fox, Time Warner, New York Times, Hearst, Conde Nast, being massively outperformed by Google/Youtube, Facebook, Yahoo, yet that's what happened.

In that world, it's likely that unlike the current commodified auto world where margins are squeezed to the bone, several companies will be able to carve out their own unique ecosystem and therefore are able to maintain margins. Given the scale of the auto market, it's easy to imagine that one or more of the companies above will build a $trillion of market cap (in today's dollars). It's possible the total number of cars sold annually will fall (because of more efficient use through ride-sharing, all good for the planet). But an auto-maker's revenue (and certainly profit) per car will rise.

I'm curious how others think the market will likely be carved up in 20 yrs time. Try an edit of the bolded para above?

I think the opposite. Private ownership provides margins because private buyers are willing to blow lots of money on their vehicles. Any increased share of the market being in commercial vehicles squeezes margins because commercial buyers look at the bottom line, and that's particularly true if the substitution is of private vehicles with ride-sharing fleets, because that means competitive bulk purchases, just as we see now with the larger fleet buyers.

 

[bh1783]

Autonomous driving will increase the miles driven and also increase the number of drivers/passengers (elderly, youth, disabled, blind, etc.). Private ownership will always continue, people like to own things. This is why people have vacation homes instead of time shares. Even though they use the place only a couple of weeks a year, they still like owning something all to themselves.

 

[Electricfan]

...it's fun to speculate what market share in the auto industry is likely to be by around 2035, the year when anything else would be "a horse". Here's my guess (I'm lumping in ride-sharing fees with auto sales as both models will be valid. It's possible the former will be greater than the latter).

Google 10%
Uber 10% (wouldn't be surprised to see partnership between these two companies at some point)
Tesla 20% (based on best engineering, infrastructure. Top revenue source in 2035? a steering-wheel-less uber-killer).
Currently unknown start-up or start-ups with incredible tech 10%
Apple 10% (they might surprise us, but they've left it late)
All existing ICE companies combined 40% (a couple will succeed in partially adapting, most will shrivel and die).

An analog would be to try to predict the 20-year future of the media market in 1995. Back then it would have impossible to imagine Fox, Time Warner, New York Times, Hearst, Conde Nast, being massively outperformed by Google/Youtube, Facebook, Yahoo, yet that's what happened.

In that world, it's likely that unlike the current commodified auto world where margins are squeezed to the bone, several companies will be able to carve out their own unique ecosystem and therefore are able to maintain margins. Given the scale of the auto market, it's easy to imagine that one or more of the companies above will build a $trillion of market cap (in today's dollars). It's possible the total number of cars sold annually will fall (because of more efficient use through ride-sharing, all good for the planet). But an auto-maker's revenue (and certainly profit) per car will rise.

I'm curious how others think the market will likely be carved up in 20 yrs time. Try an edit of the bolded para above?

Google 0%
Uber 0% (wouldn't be surprised to see partnership between these two companies at some point)
Tesla 2% (based on best engineering, infrastructure. Top revenue source in 2035? a steering-wheel-less uber-killer).
Currently unknown start-up or start-ups with incredible tech 98%
Apple 0% (they might surprise us, but they've left it late)
All existing ICE companies combined 0% (a couple will succeed in partially adapting, most will shrivel and die).

I'm being generous to Tesla, assuming they're still in the game. I kind of doubt it though, as Musk has always stated his goal is electrification and not Tesla's success specifically, and he further stated he expected Tesla might well fail. It still might (gigafactory a huge risk).

And I doubt humans are driving cars in 2035, and if they are it will take a special and very expensive license. That's my hope, anyway. I feel certain in 2035 cars will be completely autonomous, and people will look at the cars we have today like we currently look at AM radio when it was the only means of mass media.

Thanks for a fun question!