-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
If full FSD is approved tomorrow what do you think the price of FSD option be?
- Thread starter MrKool
- Start date
I'm pretty sure nothing is getting "approved" any time soon. To me this feels a lot like what happened three Decembers ago. Which if you weren't there, amounted to a very small group of people in a certain category getting a very beta pre-release of some AP features that could only be used in very limited scenarios. The rest of us saw it like 4-6 months or so after that.
WesB
Member
If, hypothetically, it were to be approved and actually reliable, the car would we worth 2 to 3 hundred thousand dollars or more. It would be a money making machine. If you're interested, go watch Tesla's autonomy day presentation.
Based on past experiences by many in this place, "hope" is expensive with a poor return.
They’d run the numbers and do what results in the highest income. So I’d guess increase to $9K after the announcement until the roll-out. Then keep it there while demand is strong, then decrease to $7K generating a new surge in demand. 6 months later I’d expect them to drop to $5K, with a short deadline for the lower price, then keep it at the lower price citing their conviction that FSD makes driving safer so keeping the lower price as sort of a public service. Here, there’ll be grousing. Then I’d expect the price to stay lower. More grousing. Then I’d expect Tesla to make FSD nontransferable, so abruptly ending when the car changes hands. Here a new big surge of grousing.
That’s a pipe dream, though. It won’t be approved tomorrow, next month, or next year. It’ll be a decade or more, most of us will have sold our cars by then. There’ll be new generations of Teslas newly fully capable of the FSD, then there will be our old cars, outdated, limited to a subset of the full FSD, but not hardware capable, nor upgradable to the full magnificent package.
But then, I’m a pessimist. I used to be an optimist. My optimism is eroded by each promise, each passing target deadline, and the slow shift from customer orientation to a profit based orientation.
I’m old. I only think I was an optimist. I’d probably be a pessimist now anyway, a real curmudgeon. I’d like to have a soft spot for Tesla in my stony heart, though. That spot is hardening. It’s calcium. Probably from my head, that’s getting softer.
I used to be a part of Tesla, not physically but in my mind. I was there, rooting for them, singing their praises. They are slowly becoming a big car company. They had to do it, they cannot lose money forever, so I do understand. Deep down I’d still rather they become a thriving company than a bankrupt one. I’ll need parts.
I think there is more likelihood that once we are done training the NN's to drive better than a 5 year old on a lawn tractor, and then allowing loads of time for each jurisdiction to agree to authorize anything, and a few setbacks with cars driving up embankments or into lakes..... when the time comes that Tesla really has a solid product and demonstrably safe software maintenance regime, they won't want to sell the end product. They will let you 'buy' something just a little better than we have today in FSD, that will then entitle you to pay a monthly fee to run the full blown offering.
Just like premium connectivity, the temptation of a revenue stream for Tesla will be too much to avoid.
Just like premium connectivity, the temptation of a revenue stream for Tesla will be too much to avoid.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
Tesomega
Member
ccdisce
EBISU like
According to the app on my tablet the 'Full Self-Driving' upgrade is offered for my
jul 17 MS 100D MCU1 AP2 for 4K.
jul 17 MS 100D MCU1 AP2 for 4K.
There is a point of diminishing returns on purchasing the FSD upgrade after delivery. The longer Tesla takes to get FSD approval, the shorter time remaining on the ownership of that vehicle. So if Tesla continues to increase the after-delivery upgrade price, they are only further decreasing the probability current owners will pay for that upgrade.
As for the FSD option price on new vehicles, assuming Tesla is the first to have FSD with regulatory approval in their vehicles, they could charge quite a bit for the option initially. But once other manufacturers start delivering FSD-approved vehicles, the price likely will be set based on competition. And over time, it's likely that price will drop or the feature could even become standard - and longer term when all manufacturers have access to approved FSD systems, FSD might become a standard feature mandated in all new vehicles.
Of course, we're likely years away from FSD being approved for use on all roads. More likely will be approval to use FSD on specific roads or under specific conditions - which won't have as much value as full FSD approval.
As for the FSD option price on new vehicles, assuming Tesla is the first to have FSD with regulatory approval in their vehicles, they could charge quite a bit for the option initially. But once other manufacturers start delivering FSD-approved vehicles, the price likely will be set based on competition. And over time, it's likely that price will drop or the feature could even become standard - and longer term when all manufacturers have access to approved FSD systems, FSD might become a standard feature mandated in all new vehicles.
Of course, we're likely years away from FSD being approved for use on all roads. More likely will be approval to use FSD on specific roads or under specific conditions - which won't have as much value as full FSD approval.
