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Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by fallen888, Dec 4, 2016.
What should my expectations (as a current Model S owner) be for delivery of a M3?
Well, Elon said first year's production is already sold out. The Model 3 page on tesla.com says new reservations will be delivered mid-2018 or later. By being a current Tesla owner, that may nudge you closer to the "mid" than the "later". Also, your configured options and geographic location come into play. However, it's anybody's guess right now as to the weight and preference Tesla will place on each of these criteria.
I assume the more expensive configuration is likely to get priority?
Yes, but we don't know which configurations will yield an earlier delivery or by how much. AWD, bigger battery and performance models perhaps? Your guess is as good as mine. Then, again, there may be selected options that may end up delaying delivery of your car because they're not available yet from Tesla (e.g., still undergoing testing, supplier delays, Elon getting ahead of his engineering/manufacturing departments with his tweets).
Tesla is hinting that there is no need for capital raising to produce big numbers of 3's, so that means they will be building the ones with the best profit margins first, collecting that $$ and then producing the others with the extra cash. Currently they make 30k additional profit the PL versions with the same battery, and even only manufacture and have an option to purchase the p100D versions for at least a quarter before making the other options available. Most likely they won't hide too many options at first with the 3, they will have to allow people to configure a 35k car, but I'd give it at least a quarter before they actually make any of them. I would bet that they have 'supplier delays' on the 5 seat configurations or whatever the cheapest options are for the 3 until the cash flow situation is working.
1. Tesla may go to a small set of configurations: base, better, best, say, which would tend to simplify production and our choice.
2. The advantage to a later delivery is that bleeding-edge problems will have been solved, and you will be in a good position to evaluate your choice.
It may be helpful to look at how the Model X reservations rolled out. When the MX was released there were ~30K reservation holders and Tesla basically used a first-come-first-served system. They opened up the configurator in batches in order of reservation, but the batches were released in very quick succession. So, it was possible to be reservation number 30,000 and get your MX well before reservation holder number 5,000, if you made placed your order first. Secondly, the version of MX selected made a huge difference on delivery date. I ordered a 90D six seater in February and took delivery in May, but those who ordered a 75D received their MX in August and those who ordered a 5 seat version just received them this month.... 10 months after placing an order.
This blog post explains this approach very nicely. It actually was not something I had considered before but appeals to me.
That's exactly why I didn't place my reservation in March/April.
Thanks for your input, guys. I placed the reservation for my wife's M3 last night!
Thanks for the link! I also agree with that philosophy for building cars en masse. I think of it in terms of Honda's typical nomenclature for trim levels: DX, LX, EX, SE... Where the base car with no options applied is effectively 'DX', and each baseline minimal trim level would cost more than the one before it. Yes, certain items would always be individual options (wheels, spoiler, paint color), or might require something else be applied before they could be chosen (Tow Package [*requires Adjustable Suspension], for instance). But for the most part, I expect the basic trims to be related to drivetrain and battery pack capacity, then have separate options packages for comfort & convenience features that can be applied to any trim, or that come standard at a certain overall dollar value. Whatever it takes to smooth out the Ordering process and Production schedule. Because the longer the list of choices, the greater the number of possible combinations, making for a gigantic matrix of potential mistakes or delays in building the car if just one small piece is unavailable.
This approach is OK for some configurations but unacceptable for certain configurations which are *matters of taste*. For instance, color. Or seat material. (I *require* real leather due to allergies. Vegans *insist* on textile or fake leather.) Or, some people hate sunroofs.
It works for any option where people who don't want the option don't really have a *problem* with the option (like the tow hitch). It does not work for options where some people want A and hate B while others want B and hate A.
For color, I honestly think they should make all the cars white and offer your choice of vinyl wrap applied before delivery. Really really simplifies production.
Vinyl wraps are not in any way 'simple' to do.
I don't think that that would simplify it at all since all you've done is add vinyl wrapping to the production process. Sure painting might be easier but since there are no color changes but I don't think you're going to save much time or complexity there anyway. Modern paint shops are pretty automated and I'm sure they schedule things so that they are not changing colors every couple of hours.
Plus vinyl wrapping requires people, painting, not so much.
Talk to Tesla instead of relying on opinions on this forum. I think you will be told that you will be moved ahead of nonowners. I reserved March 31 as a nonowner so I'm in good shape anyway, but was told by Tesla that now that I am an S owner my Model 3 priority is elevated above nonowners as long as my Model 3 contact information matches my Model S contact information. (I was told the same thing by local sales staff and corporate staff in CA.) It burns a lot of nonowners who believe it is unfair for you to reserve now and jump ahead of them, so some of these folks seem to be engaged in wishful thinking rather than cold, cruel reality. Obviously there are arguments to be made on both sides, but Tesla apparently thinks any owners should be rewarded no matter how recent their X or S purchase and/or Model 3 reservation. You indicated you don't want to be too early in the cue, so perhaps you will want to delay delivery for up to six months but otherwise you should be in great shape.
I don't like wraps. I see the benefits, but still, I don't like them.
If the model 3 comes out with a $55k option that is 3.0 0-60, 100 battery, and lifetime charging I will short TSLA and buy that car on the same day before they go out of business.