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If order today (Aug 14), new 3D delivered by end of the year?

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by MacGreiner, Aug 14, 2018.

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If I ordered a 3D today, would it be delivered by December 31 2018

Poll closed Aug 21, 2018.
  1. Definitely

    39.1%
  2. 50/50

    26.1%
  3. 30% yes

    8.7%
  4. No chance

    8.7%
  5. Depends on config

    17.4%
  1. MacGreiner

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2016
    Messages:
    571
    Location:
    MD
    What are the chances?
     
  2. Knightshade

    Knightshade Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2017
    Messages:
    1,981
    Location:
    NC
    2-4 months currently, so exceedingly likely you'd be offered delivery of your car before Dec 31.

    The risk would be you get a delivery late in December and find something wrong with it to the point you'd want to reject it and get a different one, THEN you likely miss the full tax credit.
     
    • Informative x 1
  3. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #3 Troy, Aug 14, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2018
    It depends on whether or not you have a reservation. Reservation holders get priority even if they order now. Some reservation holders who ordered in August, have already received their VIN for LR-AWD or P. There is a huge waiting list for the LR-AWD and most of the people waiting are reservation holders.

    The reservation you have already used for the LR doesn't count. You would need to have a spare reservation. If you have a reservation, there is 90% chance you will get an LR-AWD in Sep or Oct and 99% chance by the end of November. Your place in the queue would be determined by your reservation date.

    If you don't have a reservation, then you would have to wait until they are done with all reservation holders including those who have not ordered yet. Plus, your place in the queue among non-reservation holders would be determined by your configuration date which would put you at the very end of the queue if you order now. You would have maybe 30% chance.

    However, the situation for the LR is very different because there is no queue and people are getting their VINs very quickly. However, Tesla might stop or slow down LR production soon. Check out the All Entries tab in the Model 3 Order Tracker spreadsheet. Here is a video that shows how you can filter and sort.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  4. MacGreiner

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2016
    Messages:
    571
    Location:
    MD
    #4 MacGreiner, Aug 14, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2018
    Thanks for the replies. We used our reservation on the LR 3. I will be trading my 70D for the AWD.
    So I suppose I'd better get in the queue.
     
  5. hoops129

    hoops129 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2018
    Messages:
    36
    Location:
    Chandler, AZ
    What do you mean by a spare reservation and reservation that he already used for LR doesn't count?

    My reservation ($1000 deposit) was last Aug, 2017. I just placed an order for LR-AWD over the weekend. Are you saying there's a 90% chance i will get it in Sept or Oct?
     
  6. Troy

    Troy Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
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    @MacGreiner, you might actually still get priority because of your ownership status despite not having a reservation.

    @hoops129, the OP had a reservation but used that to buy a Model 3 LR in February. As for your situation, I think late October is likely. I suggest adding your data to the Order Tracker sheet and watching the VIN Queue tab.
     
    • Disagree x 2
    • Informative x 1

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