So I checked my Tesla account and saw that I could configure a Model 3 now for delivery in 4 weeks. Being a share holder, I'm trying to think about the implications of being able to take delivery at the time that I can.
I was a owner as of October 2016 so I think Tesla was just selling roughly 100K total cars at a time. Since owners before me have priority I am thinking *up to 100K* Model 3s would get delivered before I could get mine.
As months passed, the "100K" queue would drop for many reasons:
- No Dual Motor Model
- No P Model
- No $35k Model
From my understanding of highest VINS and production rate (approx 1000), I would be owner # 15,000 best case if I took delivery 4 weeks from now?
Now I myself am debating if I want to take delivery in 4 weeks as I would like a dual motor car.
My worries as a stock holder is it will not be long for Tesla for finish running through the queue for current owners.
If "adoption rate" remains fixed, we are looking at perhaps 30,000 first run Model 3s sold before the non owner public has access to them.
How much of the non-owner public would pay for the current first run $50K model 3? Hopefully a lot because they don't have a Tesla currently.
Napkin math seems to show Tesla will sell 30,000 first run Model 3 out of 200,000 possible to existing owners.
As an investor I am concerned about the following doomsday scenario:
Alternative configurations availability once first run demand configuration is done.
The obvious challenge facing TSLA has always been:
1 - What's production rate?
Now I am concerned about
2 - What happens to sales if production rate rockets but desired configurations are delayed?
Since I am likely keeping LR, PUP, adding in dual motor, that ends up raising ASP and margin to Tesla that is a good thing.
Two hundred thousand cars holding out for $35k base I would view as a negative.
Would love to know your thoughts and if I am missing something that will assuage my concerns.
I was a owner as of October 2016 so I think Tesla was just selling roughly 100K total cars at a time. Since owners before me have priority I am thinking *up to 100K* Model 3s would get delivered before I could get mine.
As months passed, the "100K" queue would drop for many reasons:
- No Dual Motor Model
- No P Model
- No $35k Model
From my understanding of highest VINS and production rate (approx 1000), I would be owner # 15,000 best case if I took delivery 4 weeks from now?
Now I myself am debating if I want to take delivery in 4 weeks as I would like a dual motor car.
My worries as a stock holder is it will not be long for Tesla for finish running through the queue for current owners.
If "adoption rate" remains fixed, we are looking at perhaps 30,000 first run Model 3s sold before the non owner public has access to them.
How much of the non-owner public would pay for the current first run $50K model 3? Hopefully a lot because they don't have a Tesla currently.
Napkin math seems to show Tesla will sell 30,000 first run Model 3 out of 200,000 possible to existing owners.
As an investor I am concerned about the following doomsday scenario:
Alternative configurations availability once first run demand configuration is done.
The obvious challenge facing TSLA has always been:
1 - What's production rate?
Now I am concerned about
2 - What happens to sales if production rate rockets but desired configurations are delayed?
Since I am likely keeping LR, PUP, adding in dual motor, that ends up raising ASP and margin to Tesla that is a good thing.
Two hundred thousand cars holding out for $35k base I would view as a negative.
Would love to know your thoughts and if I am missing something that will assuage my concerns.
