I'm not related to JP, but I'm shorting TSLA...

[tftf]

This is a single quick post because my critical remarks over at Seeking Alpha had generated all sort of conspiracy theories in the past (no, I'm no related to John Petersen nor have I ever met him in person :smile: ). Just to let you know: Since yesterday, I entered a new short around $198 (50%), the rest (50%) could be added after TSLA earnings depending on news on battery factory and 2014 etc.

My former TSLA trades were collected here: Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Page 83 I closed my last short at $121 as you can see, I had no position in TSLA since November 2013. (And I still have nothing against the company or the car, it's just about the current valuation).

Happy trading to all.

PS: I will be happy to come back and discuss the plant later in 2014 or 2015 once the details are out.

 

[sub]

This is a single quick post because my critical remarks over at Seeking Alpha had generated all sort of conspiracy theories in the past (no, I'm no related to John Petersen nor have I ever met him in person :smile: ). Just to let you know: Since yesterday, I entered a new short around $198 (50%), the rest (50%) could be added after TSLA earnings depending on news on battery factory and 2014 etc.

My former TSLA trades were collected here: Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Page 83 I closed my last short at $121 as you can see, I had no position in TSLA since November 2013. (And I still have nothing against the company or the car, it's just about the current valuation).

Happy trading to all.

PS: I will be happy to come back and discuss the plant later in 2014 or 2015 once the details are out.

Please link me to one positive comment you have made regarding Tesla either here or on SA? I'm not referring to the one you just made "I have nothing against the company". Show me one positive regarding the car or the company, execution etc that you have posted? If it happened I didn't see it. Do you really think anyone here cares about your short position? You may make some bucks in the short term, you may not, either way it doesn't affect me.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Please link me to one positive comment you have made regarding Tesla either here or on SA? I'm not referring to the one you just made "I have nothing against the company". Show me one positive regarding the car or the company, execution etc that you have posted? If it happened I didn't see it. Do you really think anyone here cares about your short position? You may make some bucks in the short term, you may not, either way it doesn't affect me.

This is the chat thread, so, sure, I'm okay with hearing what people are up to. I'm also cool with people who have never said a nice thing about Tesla; what I want to hear is cogent, reasoned discussion about the stock. Otherwise we'll just be living in an echo chamber, hearing only what we hope to hear.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a single quick post because my critical remarks over at Seeking Alpha...

Critical along with outright, umm...distortions. I particularly enjoyed the fairy tale with you claiming you knew all along the Giga-factory would happen, while longs said it wouldn't. Try as I might, I was unable to find one regular, long comment contributor on SA TSLA articles that said anything of the sort, and I've read pretty much every comment on those articles. Admittedly, I stopped trying to decipher Mr. Lucky's comments, but then he's not a long, so no matter in this regard.

 

[sleepyhead]

This is a single quick post because my critical remarks over at Seeking Alpha had generated all sort of conspiracy theories in the past (no, I'm no related to John Petersen nor have I ever met him in person :smile: ). Just to let you know: Since yesterday, I entered a new short around $198 (50%), the rest (50%) could be added after TSLA earnings depending on news on battery factory and 2014 etc.

My former TSLA trades were collected here: Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Page 83 I closed my last short at $121 as you can see, I had no position in TSLA since November 2013. (And I still have nothing against the company or the car, it's just about the current valuation).

Happy trading to all.

PS: I will be happy to come back and discuss the plant later in 2014 or 2015 once the details are out.

Your post that you linked here from back in November is so ridiculous, that it is pathetic. Paraphrased:

I bought TSLA at $30, then I sold at $120, then I bought back at $90, then I sold at $125, immediately went short, and covered at $110, went long again and cashed out at $180, went short, and covered at $121, now I shorted at $198, blah, blah, blah, blah

Nobody believes a word that you say; go back to posting on seeking alpha because nothing you post has any good faith in it. All you do is twist the truth to push your agenda.

There is no way in the world that one person can make so many trades in one stock in both directions and not only be right every time, but also be able to perfectly time to peaks and troughs.

Get over yourself, and good luck on your short position. You are going to need it, because I am sure that you went short a lot sooner than $198 as you claim.

I wouldn't be surprised if the truth was that you went short TSLA at $30, and kept doubling down along the way.

Good bye!

 

[sub]

This is the chat thread, so, sure, I'm okay with hearing what people are up to. I'm also cool with people who have never said a nice thing about Tesla; what I want to hear is cogent, reasoned discussion about the stock. Otherwise we'll just be living in an echo chamber, hearing only what we hope to hear.

I agree with hearing both sides, but he has claimed a few times that he "has nothing against the company or the car" and I'm calling him out on that. When someone can't think of one positive thing to say about a company like Tesla then I can't take anything they say seriously. This guy clearly only cares about manipulating the stock and seeing the company fail. I've asked him to prove me wrong by showing me one positive comment he has ever made regarding Tesla, I haven't seen it. There are plenty of people of TMC that point out flaws or risks in the company, I have no issue with that.

 

[tftf]

Ok, I will answer that one before quitting again.

Do you really think anyone here cares about your short position?

This is purely for disclosure only since I have been accused of I don't know what in the past. Let's leave it at that.
I certainly wouldn't care otherwise either.

Show me one positive regarding the car or the company, execution etc that you have posted?

I have high regards for the current strategy up to Gen II price ranges (i.e. up to and including Model X and maybe a future Roadster) and the Model S car quality (especially given that it's only the second car model made by TSLA).

I have for example written a post in the past about TSLA becoming the Porsche of the EV World. In summary:

In short Tesla would become the EV equivalent of Porsche in the ICE world with a similar (simplied comparison) small palette of models:

Model S <-> Porsche Panamera
Model X <-> Porsche Cayenne/Macan
Roadster 2.0 <-> Porsche 911 and derivatives

A successful execution would likely result in a less volatile share price of "only" 50-85 USD longer term (obviously less than most TSLA bulls want or hope for today) - but [even] enable stable dividends over time.

In this "Porsche of the EV World" scenario and if the stock was still trading at double-digit levels, I would certainly buy TSLA shares again. (Remember I was long TSLA up to 70-80 USD).

Unfortunately, I think that the forward strategy into the mass market carries too much risk (Gen III at just $30-35k*, maybe even a cheaper Gen IV... which in turn requires huge battery factories etc.) with low margins and a lot of competition from the big car makers long-term. A Gen III/IV car also endangers TSLA branding/brand value, distribution, servicing and free supercharging strategies in my opinion.

This is the Red Ocean (future), not the Blue Ocean (present) strategy.

But I know that the TSLA management has decided on this mass-market strategy.

Anyway, happy trading.

PS:

went long again and cashed out at $180, went short, and covered at $121,

You must have misunderstood me. I never went long TSLA in the triple digits (I added to my short position at $171 and $180 before closing it at $121. The $121 is even time-stamped in this forum.
I will come back to this thread and update my trade history here - even if I'm wrong. This is time-stamped in the forum (convenient) and I also trade infrequently, so only a few posts.

_____
* just reiterated in Jan 2014 in the latest TSLA investor PDF.

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: I carved this thread out of the short-term discussions. We are quite happy to tolerate different opinions (but not trolling) here on TMC so long as everyone stays civil; the discussion last Fall boiled over once or twice and we'd like to avoid that happening again pls.

 

[bonnie]

For what it's worth, this long has consistently said the giga-factory would become a reality.

 

[rcc]

<shrug>

Short-term trading is driven more by investor opinion (psychology in other words) than fundamentals. Look at the stock price history of Amazon or Google. People knew the stock was overvalued for years but shorting it was really dangerous because so many people wanted to buy. In other words, it's not about whether the stock is overvalued based on fundamentals, it's about whether the mass market thinks the stock is overvalued.

Since I'm long on the stock, I won't say good luck but I look forward to seeing what happens .

 

[mershaw2001]

For what it's worth, I've changed to bearish short term and I've reduced my position by half in the 194-198 range. I've been carrying the extra 300-500 shares on margin/in a margin call since 173, so I'm glad to lighten up. I expect we go into earnings in the 180's. If we go into earnings over 210's I'd expect a drop after earnings.
I absolutely love tesla, but in my opinion its bullish momentum will be snuffed for a week because they will not release more information in the 10 days prior to earnings.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Unfortunately, I think that the forward strategy into the mass market carries too much risk (Gen III at just $30-35k*, maybe even a cheaper Gen IV... which in turn requires huge battery factories etc.) with low margins and a lot of competition from the big car makers long-term. A Gen III/IV car also endangers TSLA branding/brand value, distribution, servicing and free supercharging strategies in my opinion.

Disclosure: I do not have any shares in TSLA, so there's no money where my mouth is.

I've read that argument from you before. I think you're completely upside-down on it. Tesla's mission (as in their mission statement) is to accelerate the adoption of EVs and their "master plan" as given on their website is to build an affordable long-range EV. Without that ambition nobody would care about them, goodwill and sales would be lower and Panasonic wouldn't be so interested.

I also think that the risks of the giga-factory are overegged. You're assuming that it all has to be a monolithic entity. It doesn't. It takes Panasonic less than 18 months to add a new cell manufacturing line, which means that they can match construction to progress on cost reduction on the Gen 3 design.

 

[kenliles]

Tesla's mission (as in their mission statement) is to accelerate the adoption of EVs and their "master plan" as given on their website is to build an affordable long-range EV. Without that ambition nobody would care about them, goodwill and sales would be lower and Panasonic wouldn't be so interested.

That's a similar ambition to more than Tesla.
For me, converting the stated ambition to belief/goodwill transforms in the realm of execution.
And it helps that the executioner in charge has fulfilled other lofty ambitions that many have strived and failed to achieve, in commercial rocketry.
After all, ItsNotAboutTheMoney

 

[Gwgan]

...I will come back to this thread and update my trade history here - even if I'm wrong. ...

It would be a more interesting conversation if you would post your trades before or simultaneously with the actual trades. You seem to have a great track record making money on this stock but if you want pats on the back for successfully shorting you’re in the wrong room. Make some other people money and you’d be more welcome.

 

[Discoducky]

Ok, we have a data point for the OP of short at $198. Let's see how that works out.

Since you have a dedicated thread now, let's see if we can have a discussion.

Can you sum up your short position business decision? Just curious how deep the rabbit hole goes.

 

[sleepyhead]

Ok, we have a data point for the OP of short at $198. Let's see how that works out.

And this is the only real-time data point that we got from tftf ever. In the past he mentioned how he made money in TSLA using perfect hindsight and what he wrote is so fantastically unbelievable that I am sure that he left out a bunch of losing trades along the way.

I would like to see tftf continue posting his trades here in real-time, because I think that would be beneficial to everyone on this forum; especially if he is shorting TSLA (it is good to see a short's thought process).

But you come out and say, with perfect hindsight, I bought at the bottom, sold at the top, shorted at the top, covered at the bottom, went long at the bottom, sold at the top, shorted at the top, covered at the bottom, etc. you are not adding any value. Not only are you not adding value, but your reputation goes down the drain, because nobody believes you. And if nobody believes you, then there is no point in posting anymore.

That said, I look forward to your posts if you are willing to disclose your trades in real-time, and not a week or month after the fact.

 

[MikeC]

Sweet, we got someone to replace Realist as the Short of the forum. Please do keep us updated.

 

[sub]

For what it's worth, I've changed to bearish short term and I've reduced my position by half in the 194-198 range. I've been carrying the extra 300-500 shares on margin/in a margin call since 173, so I'm glad to lighten up. I expect we go into earnings in the 180's. If we go into earnings over 210's I'd expect a drop after earnings.
I absolutely love tesla, but in my opinion its bullish momentum will be snuffed for a week because they will not release more information in the 10 days prior to earnings.

This is a completely different scenario than I was referring to with the OP. I've gone "short" by selling calls a few times, not because I thought anything had changed with the company, I just had a feeling the stock might stay flat or have a slight pull back short term. My problem with the OP is he is the first guy to rush to every SA article and repeat the same thing over and over again, and nothing is ever positive. I don't consider what he posted in his last post as positive, saying that Tesla will only ever be a niche player in the auto industry is what all the shorts say when claiming the stock is over valued.

On another note, I day traded tesla today, had 30 trades and nailed it perfectly every time with a nice 2-4 dollar swing every time up and down....or maybe I'm full of it.

 

[DaveT]

It would be a more interesting conversation if you would post your trades before or simultaneously with the actual trades.

Several months ago I was debating someone online regarding TSLA. He had posted hundreds of remarks on how TSLA was overvalued, etc. He said that he was short on TSLA. After chatting with him for over 2 hours (which wasn't enjoyable because he wasn't open-minded at all), I asked him how many shares he was short TSLA. He said 10 shares.

Case in point, it's not just about someone posting that they went short at $198. Anybody can do that. He should also post how many shares he's short as well. If this is going to be a dedicated thread (which I'm not sure it should be), then we ought to see a screenshot of the actual trade claimed by tftf. The screenshot should show the date of the trade, TSLA symbol, # shares short, and price sold. If we don't get this from tftf, then we really ought to shut this thread down (or at least move it off the Investors Forum).

 

[bareyb]

Yeah. I'm calling shenanigans too. If only I had a Nickel for every person who has told me they bought TSLA at 30 bucks…