I'm starting to think the X still isn't ready...

[gg_got_a_tesla]

In hindsight, Tesla should have simply focused on the Model 3 (it would have been Model 2 then?) after the success of the Model S. That'd have still been compatible with their "secret master plan".

Elon was once asked the same question - is the Model X really necessary?! He said something to the effect "no, it isn't but, I feel that it's a vehicle that should exist".

All the same, once Tesla hits its straps with the X's production, we'd all forget this dodgy phase.

 

[techmaven]

In hindsight, Tesla should have simply focused on the Model 3 (it would have been Model 2 then?) after the success of the Model S. That'd have still been compatible with their "secret master plan".

Elon was once asked the same question - is the Model X really necessary?! He said something to the effect "no, it isn't but, I feel that it's a vehicle that should exist".

All the same, once Tesla hits its straps with the X's production, we'd all forget this dodgy phase.

Well, the issue is still, what is the depth of demand on the Model S? Can Tesla scale to 100,000 or 150,000 unit capacity by selling the Model S alone? Could they have raised enough money to skip the Model X altogether? I'm not sure. They had to get commitment from Panasonic to expand cell supply and they might not have achieved that with only Model S.

As for the Model X, the falcon wing doors was enough complexity I think. The panoramic windscreen just wasn't necessary in the first iteration. Ship first. Let that come later.

 

[timf]

The feasibility of Model 3 has always been driven by battery supply and cost. Regardless of whether Tesla spent time engineering Model X or not, Model 3 would still be on roughly the same timeline as it is now. On the other hand, we may not have certain Model S features such as dual motor if it had not been for the Model X development process.

I do feel the Model X design and assembly line are ready to the point where if they had suppliers delivering parts in volume they would be able to mass produce Model X. Certain features may have late availability and require a "due bill" or receive retrofits over the first year of service as was the case with Model S. Should that happen after all the delays we've already had with Model X? No, not really, but Tesla's operating strategy has always been continual product improvement and releasing features as they are ready. They had to draw a line in the sand for Model X somewhere and this is where we stand.

 

[EchoDelta]

As for the Model X, the falcon wing doors was enough complexity I think. The panoramic windscreen just wasn't necessary in the first iteration. Ship first. Let that come later.

This is all speculation on my behalf- but what if every step also has some rehearsal of the steps needed ahead as well? It may slow this step but accelerates the overall journey. I do believe- speculation- that the MX partly includes things that will be trickle down model 3 relevant features and differentiators; (which it will need for broad market wow appeal, besides being an EV especially without a range breakthrough IMO)
and while they may have added time to the MX process, having done that this iteration de-risks model 3 a lot. Which in my mind is a good mission play. I think Tesla/Elon play this strategy at many scales simultaneously.
Not being in the decision process of course means this is all fantasy and we all project our values into what Tesla "should" be doing.
</digression>

I think the stock will stay hammered until model 3 reveals/announcements happen in a few Teslamonths.

 

[nienco2]

Certain SEC filings indicated a number of stock option grants tied to Model X shipping by 9/30. Wonder if 6 hand made cars qualifies those grants? I hope that wasn't the incentive for the 9/29 event and real production is still a month or two away.

 

[macpacheco]

In hindsight, Tesla should have simply focused on the Model 3 (it would have been Model 2 then?) after the success of the Model S. That'd have still been compatible with their "secret master plan".

Elon was once asked the same question - is the Model X really necessary?! He said something to the effect "no, it isn't but, I feel that it's a vehicle that should exist".

All the same, once Tesla hits its straps with the X's production, we'd all forget this dodgy phase.

I really doubt there's a secret *detailed* master plan. That's because until final design decisions are made there are always many unknowns. A whole tree of unknowns. The conspiracy theory that corporate masters know everything is far from facts. It flies in the face of delegating design authority (always review later, but let your engineers think, and explain the pro's and con's of choices, make recommendations).
You can only have a secret master plan back in the old VCR days, when the product that was going to be released 5 years from now was already built, and it wasn't even the next model to be released. Planned obsolescence. That doesn't quite apply to Tesla. If that were true, they would already have a Model 3 alpha car made already.

 

[bonaire]

Certain SEC filings indicated a number of stock option grants tied to Model X shipping by 9/30. Wonder if 6 hand made cars qualifies those grants? I hope that wasn't the incentive for the 9/29 event and real production is still a month or two away.

I think you answered your own question on the reason. If you read the value of the filings and who gets the benefits...

 

[donv]

Really? All I could find was the option grants which vest on the completion of the first Model X production vehicle-- but those didn't have a 9/30 date tied to them. They were expected to be completed in 2015, however.

Certain SEC filings indicated a number of stock option grants tied to Model X shipping by 9/30. Wonder if 6 hand made cars qualifies those grants? I hope that wasn't the incentive for the 9/29 event and real production is still a month or two away.

 

[andrewket]

It doesn't work that way. The sales tax (and certain other fees) paid on a car is based on where it's registered, not where the owner picks it up.

If the "dealership" at which you buy the car charges the wrong sales tax, then there's a whole annoying process you must go through to get reimbursed in the non-resident state and then pay your taxes in the resident state.

Not true in California.

 

[markb1]

Not true in California.

That is true if you buy the car in California and register it in California.

 

[MrBoylan]

The feasibility of Model 3 has always been driven by battery supply and cost. Regardless of whether Tesla spent time engineering Model X or not, Model 3 would still be on roughly the same timeline as it is now. On the other hand, we may not have certain Model S features such as dual motor if it had not been for the Model X development process.

I do feel the Model X design and assembly line are ready to the point where if they had suppliers delivering parts in volume they would be able to mass produce Model X. Certain features may have late availability and require a "due bill" or receive retrofits over the first year of service as was the case with Model S. Should that happen after all the delays we've already had with Model X? No, not really, but Tesla's operating strategy has always been continual product improvement and releasing features as they are ready. They had to draw a line in the sand for Model X somewhere and this is where we stand.

Agree except it would be hard to do a "due bill" on the windshield which appears to be one of the parts holding things up. Driving off the lot without one of those would be tricky.

But as for the Model III, it requires the gigafactory to reach its price point. The gigafactory is being built in parallel with car development. So the Model X, in that sense, really isn't holding up the Model III development. I agree with Elon though that the Model X should exist. High-end sedan, high-end SUV/CUV. Build the high-end cost-no-object brand in both of these categories, then once the world is lusting after them, introduce one (of each) that most people can afford.

From my factory tour the day after the Model X launch event, it did seem to me like they had the capacity to ramp up the X quickly if they had the parts. Pretty amazing factory actually. Those are some big (and fancy!) robots!

-CB

 

[AudubonB]

I really doubt there's a secret *detailed* master plan. That's because until final design decisions are made there are always many unknowns. A whole tree of unknowns. The conspiracy theory that corporate masters know everything is far from facts. It flies in the face of delegating design authority (always review later, but let your engineers think, and explain the pro's and con's of choices, make recommendations).
You can only have a secret master plan back in the old VCR days, when the product that was going to be released 5 years from now was already built, and it wasn't even the next model to be released. Planned obsolescence. That doesn't quite apply to Tesla. If that were true, they would already have a Model 3 alpha car made already.

Macpacheco, your post makes it seem as though you're not aware of the "Secret" Master Plan. I'll let you - and any others who might not know - search for it yourself, but it indeed exists. Not very secret, though.

 

[bonnie]

I'll go a step further than Aud ... because I'm nicer. :biggrin:

Let me google that for you.

 

[AudubonB]

No one who's nicer than another ever would make that claim, as it's self-referentially contradictory.:tongue:

 

[Keri Ford]

Well it does seem that Tesla has an issue with punctuality. But i think Model X is an essential step for Tesla. As others have said they need the Gigafactory for Model III so they couldn't deliver it any time soon. But on top of that Tesla is still a new company that is both learning and growing very quickly. The Model X will broaden their experience, it teaches them more about developing new cars about manufacturing and doing two different lines simultaneously. The Model III is a game changer and I think they need the Model X to prepare for the kinds of challenges the Model III will bring. The other thing is they will need to get their supercharger network in a pretty mature state for Model III.

I don't think there is much cause for concern, Tesla has a habit of delivering, they have delivered their first Model X's as promised, it will take them a little while to ramp up production, I don't see anything to worry about.

 

[FredTMC]

Agree except it would be hard to do a "due bill" on the windshield which appears to be one of the parts holding things up. Driving off the lot without one of those would be tricky.

But as for the Model III, it requires the gigafactory to reach its price point. The gigafactory is being built in parallel with car development. So the Model X, in that sense, really isn't holding up the Model III development. I agree with Elon though that the Model X should exist. High-end sedan, high-end SUV/CUV. Build the high-end cost-no-object brand in both of these categories, then once the world is lusting after them, introduce one (of each) that most people can afford.

From my factory tour the day after the Model X launch event, it did seem to me like they had the capacity to ramp up the X quickly if they had the parts. Pretty amazing factory actually. Those are some big (and fancy!) robots!

-CB

Lets say that Windshields and Rear Seats are the slowest items from suppliers.

I would think tesla could assemble Model X cars completely and then put the windshield and rear seat in later and then deliver the car. Both are easily replaceable on most cars. I further assume both items are arriving from suppliers "soon".

Ideally, tesla will get started with MX production next week. We'd all love to hear from sig owners with "your car is in production" status updates.

 

[wdolson]

I noticed the production numbers for Model Ss dropped in July and August of this year and there was speculation Model S sales were soft. Sales of the Model S might have been soft, but the opening of the final assembly plant in the Netherlands explained the reduction in output to me. The final assembly plant is said to be putting together components made in California. Tesla was making parts for the start up of the European assembly plant.

I think they are doing the same thing right now with Model X parts. The article someone posted where Elon said the Model X is the most complex car ever built. They may be having trouble getting some parts and that's holding up production. However, they could be making body panels and other parts for shipment to Europe. If the missing parts are something put on late in assembly, they could partially build cars and let them sit until the parts arrive.

Another thing Tesla has to do is build Model Xs for the Tesla stores. They may be doing that too.

There are many reasons there are delays to the deliveries of the Sig cars.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Certain SEC filings indicated a number of stock option grants tied to Model X shipping by 9/30. Wonder if 6 hand made cars qualifies those grants? I hope that wasn't the incentive for the 9/29 event and real production is still a month or two away.

Yes and yes. Nice find on the SEC filings. So it wasn't just a PR self imposed deadline, Elon was going to miss out on stock options!

 

[woof]

Macpacheco, your post makes it seem as though you're not aware of the "Secret" Master Plan. I'll let you - and any others who might not know - search for it yourself, but it indeed exists. Not very secret, though.

I'll go a step further than Aud ... because I'm nicer. :biggrin:

Let me google that for you.

No one who's nicer than another ever would make that claim, as it's self-referentially contradictory.:tongue:

And yet, (sorry Audi) Bonnie is nicer than you!

 

[bonnie]

No one who's nicer than another ever would make that claim, as it's self-referentially contradictory.:tongue:

That's not a rule. I like paradoxes. Think of it as a paradox.

Here's one of my favorites! (warning, rapid thread derailment underway)

A judge tells a condemned prisoner that he will be hanged at noon on one weekday in the following week but that the execution will be a surprise to the prisoner. He will not know the day of the hanging until the executioner knocks on his cell door at noon that day.

Having reflected on his sentence, the prisoner draws the conclusion that he will escape from the hanging. His reasoning is in several parts. He begins by concluding that the "surprise hanging" can't be on Friday, as if he hasn't been hanged by Thursday, there is only one day left - and so it won't be a surprise if he's hanged on Friday. Since the judge's sentence stipulated that the hanging would be a surprise to him, he concludes it cannot occur on Friday.

He then reasons that the surprise hanging cannot be on Thursday either, because Friday has already been eliminated and if he hasn't been hanged by Wednesday night, the hanging must occur on Thursday, making a Thursday hanging not a surprise either. By similar reasoning he concludes that the hanging can also not occur on Wednesday, Tuesday or Monday. Joyfully he retires to his cell confident that the hanging will not occur at all.

The next week, the executioner knocks on the prisoner's door at noon on Wednesday — which, despite all the above, was an utter surprise to him. Everything the judge said came true