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Impact of 4680 cells?

ucsdsig

Member
Sep 10, 2016
295
236
Los Angeles
S and X aren't important to Tesla. Contribute very little to bottom line.
Guess we'll see. But the S has substantially more range than the Y thus helping to support its higher cost. Can't see the Y beating the S or X in range right out of the gate...just weird optics. Would be like Mercedes putting a 4 cylinder engine in the S-class and while putting a 8 cylinder in the C-class (if these were the only engine options).

More likely Tesla puts the 4680 in the Y and keeps the current range. We know Tesla is all about cost savings. I was surprised to learn my Model Y didn't come with Homelink...haha.
 

tangible1

Member
Jul 8, 2021
159
95
SoCAL
My wager is that Tesla is negotiating the terms of opening up their network.
Especially, getting government subsidy funding to do expansion concurrent with the opening.
Elon Musk is The Master of milking the Government - $1B in Carbon Credits just over the last 5 qtrs, SpaceX rocket development subsidies, just to name a couple.
 

tangible1

Member
Jul 8, 2021
159
95
SoCAL
Yeah I see your point - it doesn't make sense to have the higher ranges on the "lower end" cars, but if we look at the long range model 3 compared to the model S at the time, it does seem like Tesla offered a little more range to the 3, even at the lower cost.

You could totally be right and they could release a longer range S or X. I wonder if the plaid+ models might come out with 4680s, giving out that big range?

And who know what they will call the front and rear casted model Y with 4680s and more range and (perhaps) more power? If I were to call it now, I would say Model Y Plaid coming out of Austin. You heard it here first, folks ;)
An updated MY with front+rear castings and 4680 structural battery pack was claimed to weigh 10% less than current MY.
That's 400+ lbs of weight reduction - and weight is HUGE for performance, handling, and range issues.
Tesla would not need an improved electric motor. It would gain +P performance immediately, and add at least 5% to the range (probably more).
 

KJD

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Dec 14, 2013
1,371
1,019
SLC, UT
It will be interesting to see how long it takes the Austin factory to go from testing the line to limited production on the new line. It would be great to see some of those 4680 cells out in the real world.

 

BreatheEasier

Member
Mar 26, 2020
587
412
Northern Virginia
An updated MY with front+rear castings and 4680 structural battery pack was claimed to weigh 10% less than current MY.
That's 400+ lbs of weight reduction - and weight is HUGE for performance, handling, and range issues.
Tesla would not need an improved electric motor. It would gain +P performance immediately, and add at least 5% to the range (probably more).

I agree - this is where the range improvement will come from for sure, as other factors such as ambient temp, speed, etc. will always be there to drag things down, this will be the one constant . I also think that shedding 400lbs will help with ride quality, but I'm still convinced the dampers have a lot to do with it, and if they don't change the dampers when the weight decreases, the ride characteristics will remain about the same.
 
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KJD

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Dec 14, 2013
1,371
1,019
SLC, UT
Gamechanger is an overused word, but maybe ?

 

tangible1

Member
Jul 8, 2021
159
95
SoCAL
Gamechanger is an overused word, but maybe ?

Too many 'gamechanger' videos posted. Only Tesla knows where they are with the batteries.
Judging by the ACTIONS of Tesla, 4680 batteries are NOT ready for production very soon.
Otherwise, why the LFP deals on M3, the CATL contracts, etc etc.
Why the 2170 substitution plan for MY builds?
 

Mengy

Member
Feb 18, 2020
472
3,434
PA
Too many 'gamechanger' videos posted. Only Tesla knows where they are with the batteries.
Judging by the ACTIONS of Tesla, 4680 batteries are NOT ready for production very soon.
Otherwise, why the LFP deals on M3, the CATL contracts, etc etc.
Why the 2170 substitution plan for MY builds?

I was hoping they'd be further along by now honestly, seeing how both Austin and Berlin are about to enter production in the next few months.

My worry is this: without the 4680 lines up and running, will Tesla be able to get enough 2170's from suppliers to produce any substantial amount of Y's out of both new factories in the near term?
 

cgell

Member
Jan 30, 2020
89
182
NJ
I was hoping they'd be further along by now honestly, seeing how both Austin and Berlin are about to enter production in the next few months.

My worry is this: without the 4680 lines up and running, will Tesla be able to get enough 2170's from suppliers to produce any substantial amount of Y's out of both new factories in the near term?
Won’t the chip shortage be a bigger bottleneck for the next year or so anyway? Even if they had the battery supply can they really use them?
 

mrwug

Member
Jul 30, 2021
118
56
Colorado
Won’t the chip shortage be a bigger bottleneck for the next year or so anyway? Even if they had the battery supply can they really use them?
Chip shortage is definitely a constraint but I don’t know that we’d see rumors about LFP batteries if 2170 supplies weren’t tight

 

tangible1

Member
Jul 8, 2021
159
95
SoCAL

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