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Impact of 4680 cells?
- Thread starter DanCar
- Start date
ucsdsig
Member
Guess we'll see. But the S has substantially more range than the Y thus helping to support its higher cost. Can't see the Y beating the S or X in range right out of the gate...just weird optics. Would be like Mercedes putting a 4 cylinder engine in the S-class and while putting a 8 cylinder in the C-class (if these were the only engine options).
More likely Tesla puts the 4680 in the Y and keeps the current range. We know Tesla is all about cost savings. I was surprised to learn my Model Y didn't come with Homelink...haha.
The kWh growth is probably due to improvement by Panasonic in the 2170 battery storage and efficiency, not an increase in the number of 2170 cells. Panasonic and Tesla both have stated that 5% improvement has been realized. That's about the % number from 77.5 to 82kWh
An updated MY with front+rear castings and 4680 structural battery pack was claimed to weigh 10% less than current MY.Yeah I see your point - it doesn't make sense to have the higher ranges on the "lower end" cars, but if we look at the long range model 3 compared to the model S at the time, it does seem like Tesla offered a little more range to the 3, even at the lower cost.
You could totally be right and they could release a longer range S or X. I wonder if the plaid+ models might come out with 4680s, giving out that big range?
And who know what they will call the front and rear casted model Y with 4680s and more range and (perhaps) more power? If I were to call it now, I would say Model Y Plaid coming out of Austin. You heard it here first, folks
That's 400+ lbs of weight reduction - and weight is HUGE for performance, handling, and range issues.
Tesla would not need an improved electric motor. It would gain +P performance immediately, and add at least 5% to the range (probably more).
It will be interesting to see how long it takes the Austin factory to go from testing the line to limited production on the new line. It would be great to see some of those 4680 cells out in the real world.
cleantechnica.com
Tesla Model Y Test Vehicle Moving Forward At Tesla Gigafactory Texas — Leaked Pics - CleanTechnica
Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Article courtesy of Tesla Oracle. Preparation of Tesla Model Y production at the automaker’s Gigafactory Texas has gained momentum lately. A few images from inside Giga Texas have leaked via a local...
cleantechnica.com
I agree - this is where the range improvement will come from for sure, as other factors such as ambient temp, speed, etc. will always be there to drag things down, this will be the one constant . I also think that shedding 400lbs will help with ride quality, but I'm still convinced the dampers have a lot to do with it, and if they don't change the dampers when the weight decreases, the ride characteristics will remain about the same.
Gamechanger is an overused word, but maybe ?
www.teslarati.com
Tesla’s 4680 battery cell pilot production line hits 70-80% yield: report
Tesla has a number of programs that have the potential to change markets, and one of these is arguably the 4680 cells. Created using a dry electrode process and optimized for price and efficiency, the 4680 batteries could very well be the key to Tesla’s possible invasion of the mainstream auto...
www.teslarati.com
Too many 'gamechanger' videos posted. Only Tesla knows where they are with the batteries.Gamechanger is an overused word, but maybe ?
Tesla’s 4680 battery cell pilot production line hits 70-80% yield: report
Tesla has a number of programs that have the potential to change markets, and one of these is arguably the 4680 cells. Created using a dry electrode process and optimized for price and efficiency, the 4680 batteries could very well be the key to Tesla’s possible invasion of the mainstream auto...
Judging by the ACTIONS of Tesla, 4680 batteries are NOT ready for production very soon.
Otherwise, why the LFP deals on M3, the CATL contracts, etc etc.
Why the 2170 substitution plan for MY builds?
I was hoping they'd be further along by now honestly, seeing how both Austin and Berlin are about to enter production in the next few months.
My worry is this: without the 4680 lines up and running, will Tesla be able to get enough 2170's from suppliers to produce any substantial amount of Y's out of both new factories in the near term?
Chip shortage is definitely a constraint but I don’t know that we’d see rumors about LFP batteries if 2170 supplies weren’t tight
Rumor: Tesla Model Y SR Will Return To The U.S. With The LFP Pack
According to rumors, we will soon see the re-introduction of the Tesla Model Y Standard Range version to the US.
insideevs.com
Everything is becoming tight. Expect the roller coaster ride to continue.Chip shortage is definitely a constraint but I don’t know that we’d see rumors about LFP batteries if 2170 supplies weren’t tight
Rumor: Tesla Model Y SR Will Return To The U.S. With The LFP Pack
According to rumors, we will soon see the re-introduction of the Tesla Model Y Standard Range version to the US.
2170 cells are on cruise control. Panasonic and others can make as many as Tesla wants.
The focus is on 4680 manufacturabliity (not it's technology), and making stuff in volume is hard (as said by Elon many times).
MY, M3, MS and MX are not production constrained by batteries - plenty of what they currently use are available (18650, 2170, etc).
Tesla wants very much to transition to 4680 for all kinds of reasons, primarily cost and build time - the structural battery pack on the MY saves several construction steps (time, $)
The 4680 also enables the CT and the Semi. But Tesla is now estimating those for 2023.
I'm assuming the 4680 is also critical for the NotModel 2. If Elon's willing to accept 250 miles there would be a massive saving in batteries, weight, time, etc. While the extra capacity is critical for the cybertruck and Semi, I think it's the cost reductions that are critical for the NotModel 2.
And to me, that's the one that really matters. If he can put out a 250 mile car for $25K and there's a $7500 tax credit off the top you can just turn the lights off and go home, the game is over. He better be able to stamp them out like Matchbox cars because the demand will be insane.
That's why I think there's so much vacillation over the credit; I think the legacy automakers and the UAW know they simply can't allow that to happen. If there's any sort of meaningful credit that applies to the NotModel 2 they're all immediately niche players because nobody but Tesla is ever going to sell a compact sedan/hatchback/SUV ever again.
Structural battery packs seem to be the enabler for the improved (time, $) manufacturing processes for the MY, and so would be essential for a low cost EV.
Call it the Model Z (Z looks like a 2), as in the last word on EV's. Ooops, Nissan Z-car enthusiasts might object....
Structural packs seem only designed to use 4680 cells. The 2170 pack alternative does NOT appear structural (speculation).
And tax rebates look politically to give way to PoS (point of sale) discounts since tax rebates favor those that a) file taxes, b) earn more money, thus being claimed to be regressive for the less-well-to-do. But NO ONE KNOWS how rebates/credits/enticements from Government will play out yet.
Stay tuned for the next episode of political follies. Same time, same fake-news channel.
But I agree the Legacy OEMs have abandoned the small car market, and an EV in that market is even riskier, given the battery cost component.
So the Legacy boys will shrivel to niche players if Tesla successfully brings one to market. Yet Elon seems committed to products in more segments, so look out below !!
Last edited:
EVer Hopeful
Active Member
Panasonic confirms again that it is on board with 4680 battery cell production:
asia.nikkei.com
Panasonic moves toward mass production of Tesla's next-gen batteries
New battery chief won't rule out working with other EV players
asia.nikkei.com
I can post photoshop pictures of batteries with my name on them, claim to be a converted ecology sinner, and be lauded by a fawning Green Media too.Panasonic confirms again that it is on board with 4680 battery cell production:
Panasonic moves toward mass production of Tesla's next-gen batteries
New battery chief won't rule out working with other EV players
Panasonic is no closer to manufacturing 4680 batteries than Tesla, and Tesla is still unable to make them at commercially viable rates.
Tesla reporters claim they're getting 70-80% yields at the Kato Road facility (Roadrunner), which is well short.
Recycling costs of the 20-30% rejects kills any profit.
It's been 14 months since "Battery Day". The 'engineering issues' remain unsolved.
The supply of Tesla 4680 batteries is only what has been cherry-picked from test runs at Kato Road.
Meanwhile, Panasonic says they're gonna start testing sometime after March 2022, and Panasonic/Tesla Nevada won't start up production until much later.
Useless media dribble for clickbait revenue only.
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