Prices will continue fluctuate, but the site, engineering, and tooling cost a lot of $. Tesla has great margins and I can see them trying to preserve it so they can react to the competition.
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Impact of 4680 cells?
- Thread starter DanCar
- Start date
Elon has stated that he wants Model Y to be the best selling vehicle. My wife ordered a Model Y recently. Price with taxes and fees, 7 seater, was $62.5K in California. No way it is going to become a best seller at that price.
Tesla is building capacity (economy of scale), but the two main factories (Austin and Berlin) aren't up yet. Also, I don't think they have demand issues and customers are likely buying everything Tesla is producing.
whisperingshad
Active Member
my 5 seater OTD was about 55k, this and the 3 are easily best sellers since it smokes anything under like 90k
RichAZ/CapeCod
Member
We leased our MY last November in anticipation of the more advanced batteries coming soon. Our lease is up Nov '23, and I'll try for the 4680 cell model then.
Rich
Rich
Netmaster22
Member
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I'm almost at the point where I'm considering that. Maybe not trading in after 6 months, but maybe 18 months or 2 years while they really get the batteries and pack and structure and vision ironed out and production perfected. Teslas hold their values so well, and in another year or so there may be a significant tax credit to boot. So rather than waiting five or six months then being on the front edge and still maybe no credit, I think buying now and waiting 18 months or two years gets a great car now, won't lose TOO much in depreciation, especially if a tax credit arrives, then get a gen 2 closer to perfect with FSD to keep for a long, long time.
Hard to know what Tesla will do short and long term with the new batteries. And hard to know if they're worth waiting for. I don't know if I want to put off buying one for a year though - especially if chip shortages continue and Tesla prices keep going up. I'm sure part of me will wish I'd waited - especially if there are significant reductions in charge time or increases in range/speed. But, it's also possible they wait or charge a premium to unlock that potential anyway.
What do you guys think ? Is this post for real ?
cleantechnica.com
Tesla's 4680 Batteries Seem To Be In Production — Structural Battery Packs Coming? - CleanTechnica
Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! WholeMarsBlog shared a now-deleted Reddit post on Twitter that provided clues to just how soon Tesla’s first structural pack with the new 4680 battery cells will be ready. The post was deleted before I ...
cleantechnica.com
smcginnis
Travel in the time of Covid
My guess is that Texas will produce MY and CT. Fremont will have M3, MX and MS. Nevada will produce the Semi.
Terminator857
Active Member
Tesla Accelerates Hiring Efforts for 4680 Battery Cell Manufacturing at Giga Texas
Tesla is accelerating recruitment for battery manufacturing positions at Giga Texas. Over the past month, dozens of new vacancies have been added, indicating that the company continues to advance its goals of vertically integrating the major components of its vehicles and energy storage lineup.
www.tesmanian.com
Is it worth holding out for the 4680 version? That's the big question on many minds
I'm holding out for a 4680 MY. I'm ready to buy now but I've made the decision to wait a bit seeing how Austin is so close to production. It only seems like a prudent financial decision to me.
Wolfhausen
Member
I was in the same boat, but decided differently. I ordered the MYLR in June, EDD Sept 2021. My rational is, we don't know when the 4680's, front mega-casting, or structural pack will be implemented. It could be weeks, months, or years. It depends if there are any hiccups and unforeseen problems with the new tech. I don't have a Tesla currently and want to get away from the rising cost of fuel prices NOW. If I wait for the "next best" from Tesla, I'll never pull the trigger. They are always innovating and usually don't announce changes until a customer discovers them. When the version 2.0 hits the mainstream, if I feel the improvements justify it, I'll sell my Y and order the new version. Tesla has a history of missing timelines and Musk's statements on the subject are often cryptic.I'm holding out for a 4680 MY. I'm ready to buy now but I've made the decision to wait a bit seeing how Austin is so close to production. It only seems like a prudent financial decision to me.
EVer Hopeful
Active Member
I placed my order on June 22nd, and the reason was that I watched a YouTube that said "If you're waiting for the 4680, or the one piece or whatever, then don't because by the time that becomes available, there'll be something else to wait for". Plus. let's be honest, you're really only on the hook for $100. I'm glad I ordered when I did, because it means I'm $1,500 better off
Too bad I didn't watch that vid in February - lol
Too bad I didn't watch that vid in February - lol
I have some issues with this....Is it worth holding out for the 4680 version? That's the big question on many minds
1) You can't really predict the future. If you need the car now, buy it. Tesla's are actually pretty mature vehicles.
2) The car with 4680 batteries may be cheaper for Tesla to build, but they won't sell it cheaper. Price is often determined by the 2nd most efficient producer. None of the other EVs are close to Tesla.
3) The 4680 battery is an incremental improvement, not game changing. And Tesla battery technology has not changed that much in 4 years ....
whisperingshad
Active Member
i missed out at the 48990 dip waiting, got in at the 49990....53990 now...
I actually think the battery plus battery pack is close to game changing once they get to scale and have production smoothed out. Ultimately a Y will have capacity for 500 miles which means even on road trips you'll probably only have to charge twice, and you're going to stop twice anyhow. And charging times will be faster to the point that IMO virtual parity with ICE will be achieved. And of course the cars will get cheaper and cheaper.
However, Elon isn't going to roll all that out at once. I bet he dribbles out extended range and drop prices bit by bit to stay one generation ahead of the competition. So next year when they all hit 300 miles, he'll release 400. When they get to 400 he'll release 500. And at the same time he'll be dropping prices; but probably not for at least a year until production catches up with demand. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an 'end state' in about four years where the Model 2 is $25K, the Model 3$ is 35K, and the Y is $40K.
So I don't think you can wait 6 months and get all that stuff. For me, I'm going to buy now, drive it two or three years, then trade in for a perfected second gen that will have all that range, faster charging times, air suspension, whatever, that maybe by then will also have true FSD.
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Elon has stated the CT will be first from GigaTexas. Probably because the CT doesn't require a paint shop to make it.
There's been a MY BIW (body in white) delivered to TX to begin calibrating the (very) few robots already in place, but don't expect MY production until EoY.
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