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Impact of Trump sentiment against H1B Visas to Tesla?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by MXWing, Feb 3, 2017.

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  1. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Doing more research but subject basically covers the question.

    1 - What is the impact to TSLA short term?
    2 - What is the impact to TSLA long term?
    3 - How will the market move in response for the short term?
     
  2. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

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    #2 deonb, Feb 4, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2017
    I am totally in favor of the H1B wages being raised to $130k. The system as it is right now is utterly broken. (Disclaimer: I was an H1B myself many years back, and I have hired H1B's as well).

    We had a highly qualified candidate that we hired last year - he dwarfs any H1B requirement. However because H1B's are oversubscribed he had to go into a lottery where the chance of winning was 25%. And there is only 1 day per year you can apply for an H1B visa. Now luckily for us he won the lottery, and luckily for us we recruited him 4 weeks before the magic application date, so it all worked out. If anything went differently we would have lost him.

    It shouldn't have to work like that - you can't operate a business not knowing whether you can actually get the people you hire, and only being able to recruit for a one month period each year. We shouldn't have to compete highly qualified candidates against companies who use the H1B program to lower their cost of wages. (Though I must admit I have never seen that - in every situation I've been, H1B's have always been more expensive than local hires - but I believe it when I read that InfoSys & Tata wasn't purely using the program to get the best people.)

    Only thing is that I wished the $130k was more of an automatic feedback based pliable number, since these numbers tend to get stale after a few years and then we'll have the problem again. So if they we want to keep the visa numbers at 65'000 per year, figure out whatever salary cutoff would reach 65'000, and keep adjusting it every year.

    I know the numbers favors Silicon Valley and Seattle recruiting though, so it's easy for me to say I don't care about the $130k cap since that's below our prevailing wage anyway, but that cap hits a company that's based in e.g. Austin higher. Maybe there should be a "cost of living" factor as well so that e.g. a $100k hire in one place is the equivalent of a $150k hire in another.

    Either way $130k, and a general preference system is far better than the 1 in 4 lottery mess we have right now.


    So to answer your questions:

    1) Nothing
    2) This is a good thing. If Tesla finds a well-qualified candidate in another country they will be able to immediately hire them instead of going into a 1 in 4 lottery
    3) The market can be relied on the act irrationally
     
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  3. pGo

    pGo Member

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    $130k base pay is for dependent employers. Most companies don't qualify for that. There are a few rules but one is that you are a dependent employer if more than 15% of your workforce is on H1B.

    This rule impacts body shoppers and TCS, Infosys, wipro, cognizant than any other companies. It will help more than hurt to find a qualified candidate with a guaranteed H1B status.
     
  4. DurandalAI

    DurandalAI Member

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    The H1B Visa program's intent is to allow companies to bring in employees from other countries when there is a lack of available candidates from within the US. It was not intended (originally) to cause wage depression in the field. Thus the minimum pay of $130k is actually beneficial to companies who actually DO have a problem finding qualified candidates, as it reduces the abuse by companies such as Infosys that use it to reduce wage costs.

    Insourcing: American Lose Jobs to H-1B Visa Workers | The Huffington Post

    In addition to the well publicized instances, such as Disney, I've read about it in other instances, and personally know others that have been affected by it as well. On the flip side, I also know H1B visa holders who were brought over from other countries who were highly valuable in what they did, and they ended up becoming US citizens. Unfortunately the cases where US workers are actually displaced and forced to train their replacements are not being enforced.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/us/judge-says-disney-didnt-violate-visa-laws-in-layoffs.html


    As Deonb mentioned, we will encounter this issue again in the future if the numbers are not automatically adjusted, so maybe an option is making the pay minimum be a 100-150% over what the median household income is from the previous year.
     
  5. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    The concept that you cannot train humans is propaganda. Many tech jobs require expensive training that is not addressed in college.

    And the real kicker is that only a fraction of those you hire with degrees will succeed in speciality tech fields. This is why training is so expensive. You might have to train 3-10 people to get somebody who can do the job at an expert level. Most people, college or not, are average.
     
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  6. SBenson

    SBenson Active Member

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    AFAIK 130K is not hard cutoff. It is spelled out as top 35th percentile of Tech Salaries. So it gets auto adjusted both up and down (each year?).
     
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  7. pGo

    pGo Member

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    Again, $130k proposed limit is for H1B dependent employers. Doesn't impact most companies.
     
  8. pGo

    pGo Member

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  9. Vitold

    Vitold Active Member

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    Unlike regular H1B employers, the H-1B dependent employer is required to advertise job vacancies in the United States before petitioning for H1B workers to fill the job vacancies unless the worker is an ‘exempt’ H1B employee.
    Who Is An ‘Exempt’ H1B Worker?

    An H1B nonimmigrant worker is ‘exempt’ if he or she:

    • Will receive wages (including cash bonuses and similar compensation) at an annual rate of $60,000 or higher; or
    • Has a master's degree or higher or its equivalent in a specialty related to the intended employment.

    This fixed annual rate of 60k/yr excludes most in the tech field.
     
  10. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    I think the long and short term impact will be substantial as so much of Tesla is dependent on software. Easiest way to solve for this is to set up additional development location outside the US, which will probably now be accelerating across Silicon Valley.
     

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