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Implications of a flawless Model 3 launch and ramp to stock price

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And let's not forget the Tesla Energy ramp
Yes, sometimes I forget that part and I consider myself "tuned in " to the Tesla world. There was a study done, I forget where, that people who buy EV's are then interested in getting solar for their house. And of course once you have solar, now you want energy storage. This trend can be a huge profit maker for Tesla.
I had gotten the solar first, now I have a Tesla. It's time for the trifecta: Powerwall! :) I'm waiting for the cost to come down.
Last week the Tempe Service Center called and said since my appointment was for a minor item, they'd like to free up the service center time by sending a ranger to my house or business
I wonder how heavy they will get into this? I have a short list of items needed on my S and plan on getting it done by the end of the year, mainly because the Model 3 will be out. Service centers need to be doubled, tripled, quadrup......you get the idea. Rangers can be a great way to ease the burden. Why give a loaner, have the car all day in line for repairs when say, fixing a door handle can be done in the customers driveway. I am FAR from a stock expert but even I know if the Model 3 has a bad "Finnigan pin" that breaks causing the control arm to fall off, the stock will take a hit. :) And the SC will have no time for Model S and X.
 
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Wanted to bring up a couple more variables that are becoming more and more clear as the Model 3 launch approaches.

For the below I'll be taking into account the $7.5k federal credit and whatever assortment of state credits you can get (let's say it totals between 9k to 12k) and assuming that Enhanced AP will be $5k and a battery upgrade around 5k-7k)

Let's start by taking all cars that can cost $35k with any assortment of options, bases, etc. Let's just assume all these cars, when all is said and done come to $35k.

Now, let's funnel it to only include those that have a 5 star rating in any category - even if Model 3 will be 5 star in all, let's create a pass for the rest of the cars
Now, let's funnel it to only include those that can do 0 to 60 in 5 seconds, with the assumption that the upgraded battery will bring the time down by about a second, consistent with the Model S
Now, let's funnel it to only include those that have driver assist features on par with AP2 (and all of the updates it will receive over time)

It becomes incredibly clear that out of the gate, Model 3 is truly in a class on its own. We can redo this exercise again at $45-$47k to nullify the tax credit impact. Even here, the closest competitors would be a BMW 3 series with a drivetrain upgrade that will match the Model 3 performance, but will still lag behind in the safety and self driving aspect.

Once reviews start rolling in for the car I predict we will see a reaction from other automakers that will be nothing short of panic.
 
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It becomes incredibly clear that out of the gate, Model 3 is truly in a class on its own. We can redo this exercise again at $45-$47k to nullify the tax credit impact. Even here, the closest competitors would be a BMW 3 series with a drivetrain upgrade that will match the Model 3 performance, but will still lag behind in the safety and self driving aspect.

If you ignore 1s for 0-60 and some AP2 thingies, Subaru Legacy 3.6R(fully loaded, TACC etc) might qualify and will be equal or cheaper than the base M3.
Depends on what you need I guess, if OTA updates or electric engine is a must for you, M3 all the way.

Sorry if I missed any requirements :)
 
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Once reviews start rolling in for the car I predict we will see a reaction from other automakers that will be nothing short of panic.

No, not yet. No one writes about Tesla cars in media the same way all other cars are being written. Simple reason is that there is no press fleet that makes rounds so that all journalists can experience said car (they seem to occasionally lend a car here and there, but that's not a fleet).
Tesla needs a press fleet and manager of said fleet, someone really good in building relationships, or to start paying for some advertisement, but fleet and relationship builder would be enough.
Thousands of articles/videos that you'd get would cause see of change in publicity and a mindshare of a customer, maybe cause buying public to start delaying purchases of regular cars and panic at the other manufacturers. Until that happens, growth of Tesla will be more organic within enlightened crowd and their environment :)

BTW, if anyone at Tesla reads this and you meant to do it, please consider ex-Canadian racer Rick Bye. He used to do manage Porsche press fleet and comes with connections. That's the guy that got blind boy to drive around Mosport racetrack, you may have heard the story, fantastic person. Seriously Tesla, do it! You need 15 cars, 1 guy on payroll, some insurance, some car wash budget :). Under $1M a year program and would do wonders for education of buying public. Let's lit some fire under other manufacturers...
 
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W.r.t TSLA, I think the bulls and bears are just so clustered in a bimodal distribution, many people point to the other camp and think "bubble!", and that they are the contrarian and will benefit when the other camp's bubble pops. In the short term, this doesn't help predict which way the stock will go, it only indicates that one way or the other, many people will get hurt in this stock. In the long term, I think it's safer to be in the long camp.
Yeah, the bimodal distribution is... well, honestly, it's a blast! I've never dealt with a stock with such an extreme bimodal distribution of sentiment before, and it's created all kinds of crazy opportunities (particularly in the options market).
 
No, not yet. No one writes about Tesla cars in media the same way all other cars are being written. Simple reason is that there is no press fleet that makes rounds so that all journalists can experience said car (they seem to occasionally lend a car here and there, but that's not a fleet).
Tesla needs a press fleet and manager of said fleet, someone really good in building relationships, or to start paying for some advertisement, but fleet and relationship builder would be enough.
Thousands of articles/videos that you'd get would cause see of change in publicity and a mindshare of a customer, maybe cause buying public to start delaying purchases of regular cars and panic at the other manufacturers. Until that happens, growth of Tesla will be more organic within enlightened crowd and their environment :)

BTW, if anyone at Tesla reads this and you meant to do it, please consider ex-Canadian racer Rick Bye. He used to do manage Porsche press fleet and comes with connections. That's the guy that got blind boy to drive around Mosport racetrack, you may have heard the story, fantastic person. Seriously Tesla, do it! You need 15 cars, 1 guy on payroll, some insurance, some car wash budget :). Under $1M a year program and would do wonders for education of buying public. Let's lit some fire under other manufacturers...

Very good call out - wondering it Tesla will do any sort of advertising with the Model 3. Gut tells me they won't enter any mode of it until at least year 2, given that they are sold out for the first year at the very least. Maybe once Gigafactory 2 is up and running?
 
If you ignore 1s for 0-60 and some AP2 thingies, Subaru Legacy 3.6R(fully loaded, TACC etc) might qualify and will be equal or cheaper than the base M3.
Depends on what you need I guess, if OTA updates or electric engine is a must for you, M3 all the way.

Sorry if I missed any requirements :)

Great call - I'm a huge fan of Subarus. Good company for the Model 3!