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In the face of a recession, should I buy a Y now or wait?

I suggest waiting also. I'm the in same boat as you, although I have older kids and older Hondas. The 2012 accord is going to college with oldest kid later this month leaving us with a 2011 pilot with 110k, which keeps having cylinder misfires. PIA! A new Tesla sure would be nice!

But the Y is super expensive right now. Would you ever even considered a $65k car before Tesla? Like others have said, I would think they cannot continue to ask those prices. The market will cool.

Start saving / investing / budgeting to buy a car. Don't use your emergency fund. Maybe buy some I-bonds.

Also, keep an eye on the Model 3, which is a more mature better developed platform that offers plenty of space for a small family, is more fun to drive, and is a bit cheaper.

EV prices will go down, competition will improve, EV's will get better, etc. There's no reason to jump into one right now with car prices at historic highs. People feel lucky to get MSRP for new cars these days. And used cars even more of a joke. There's a Model 3P at a nearby chevy stealership for the reduced price of $75! It makes me laugh.

My rule of thumb, car loan terms should be no more than 60mos., ideally 48, with < 1k payment. If you cannot manage that, then move to less expensive vehicle and/or keep saving.
 

nate704

Active Member
Apr 20, 2021
1,533
1,440
Virginia
Also, keep an eye on the Model 3, which is a more mature better developed platform that offers plenty of space for a small family, is more fun to drive, and is a bit cheaper.
I don't think M3s are more mature or better developed. Actually the exact opposite. M3s are just older platform and gets less upgrades compare to the MYs.
MYs have
1. 15v Lithium low voltage battery
2. Razen Chips
3. Front and rear single/mega cast
4. HEPA filter
5. parcel shelf
6. 4680 structural battery pack

It seems like Tesla is more focusing on developing/upgrading the MYs than M3s.
 
I don't think M3s are more mature or better developed. Actually the exact opposite. M3s are just older platform and gets less upgrades compare to the MYs.
MYs have
1. 15v Lithium low voltage battery
2. Razen Chips
3. Front and rear single/mega cast
4. HEPA filter
5. parcel shelf
6. 4680 structural battery pack

It seems like Tesla is more focusing on developing/upgrading the MYs than M3s.
Yeah, not better developed, but mature in the sense they've been working at it longer....they've had longer to get the kinks out in comparison to Y. At least, that's my impression from driving both, although I am not an owner..
 
Model Y is Tesla's best seller worldwide and the current production vehicle with the longest waiting list. So it makes sense that the Y tends to get the latest tech.. hence the 4680 structural battery pack already being delivered to customers in the MYSR AWD built in Austin.
 

Corndart

Active Member
Oct 11, 2021
1,017
1,275
Seattle
My rule of thumb, car loan terms should be no more than 60mos., ideally 48, with < 1k payment. If you cannot manage that, then move to less expensive vehicle and/or keep saving.
This is going to sound rude but that number is meaningless. Someone making $50k / year is not going to be able to swallow the same payment as someone making $500k / year. Keeping your debt to income ratio at a healthy level, while saving for the future, is a better way to think about it IMO.
 
I don't think M3s are more mature or better developed. Actually the exact opposite. M3s are just older platform and gets less upgrades compare to the MYs.
MYs have
1. 15v Lithium low voltage battery
2. Razen Chips
3. Front and rear single/mega cast
4. HEPA filter
5. parcel shelf
6. 4680 structural battery pack

It seems like Tesla is more focusing on developing/upgrading the MYs than M3s.
Based on Munro's teardown, the Y is actually the more mature platform as they improved the internal structure and build quality based on what they learned with the 3.
 
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Hello,

So I will have no emergency savings after paying taxes on a new Model Y. My wife and I after all expenses take home $4000 a month. We have been driving a 2015 Honda Accord for years and has 117k miles on it. We both work for the same company hand have a 2 and 4 yo.

Should we take the plunge buying a MY with a $1300/month payment? Thanks for any and all advice!

The fact that you are asking tells me you are uncomfortable with the purchase especially with potential risks. Also, you will be depleting your emergency savings, which doesn't sound a solid one if taxes depletes it (we are talking about 5-7k) so my vote would be to hold off until you are ready. The mention of Model 3 is also a sound one. It's cheaper and you won't lose out on space coming off an Accord.
 
The fact that you are asking tells me you are uncomfortable with the purchase especially with potential risks. Also, you will be depleting your emergency savings, which doesn't sound a solid one if taxes depletes it (we are talking about 5-7k) so my vote would be to hold off until you are ready. The mention of Model 3 is also a sound one. It's cheaper and you won't lose out on space coming off an Accord.
If I made 500k a year I'd still feel uncomfortable spending this much money on a vehicle (lol), but my wife and I only have one and need a good second and am trying to knock out 3 birds with one stone. Good comments from everyone btw.
 

nate704

Active Member
Apr 20, 2021
1,533
1,440
Virginia
If I made 500k a year I'd still feel uncomfortable spending this much money on a vehicle (lol), but my wife and I only have one and need a good second and am trying to knock out 3 birds with one stone. Good comments from everyone btw.
If I make $500k a year or more, I would be uncomfortable to buy a MY or M3 because I will be very comfortable buying MS or MX Plaid.
 
Dave Ramsey is horrible, you'll never become well-off without Debt, his entire financial strategy is one which is indicative of someone born into means. I drank that Kool-aid at one point, it's a terribly limiting mindset.
Agreed- he is fanatically dogmatic. For some people his approach works but fundamentally using credit has risks and benefits. Ramsey’s approach is that there is no benefit, ever, and the risks are always too high. There are millions of people in this country proving him wrong every day. That’s not to say that debt is good or the right decision - many people incur debt unnecessarily, but that’s a far cry from ‘all debt is bad.’
 

qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
4,592
4,735
VB
Hello,

So I will have no emergency savings after paying taxes on a new Model Y. My wife and I after all expenses take home $4000 a month. We have been driving a 2015 Honda Accord for years and has 117k miles on it. We both work for the same company hand have a 2 and 4 yo.

Should we take the plunge buying a MY with a $1300/month payment? Thanks for any and all advice!

-Mac

In the long run we’ll all be dead so I would by it now.
 
Hello,

So I will have no emergency savings after paying taxes on a new Model Y. My wife and I after all expenses take home $4000 a month. We have been driving a 2015 Honda Accord for years and has 117k miles on it. We both work for the same company hand have a 2 and 4 yo.

Should we take the plunge buying a MY with a $1300/month payment? Thanks for any and all advice!

-Mac
I’m going against the herd here and state that yes, $4K after expenses seems adequate to carry this payment. If the $4K is truly left over after food, shelter, taxes, retirement funding, college funding, then why not? I agree with the other posters that an emergency savings is needed too, so that should be a priority over an expensive car. But Teslas have been holding their value lately, so I don’t think you’ll take too much of a bath if you’re forced to sell, at least in the near term.

As far as whether the MY is worth a $1300 monthly payment, I would have to say no. The price for these cars doesn’t make sense to me anymore. At least wait to see if it qualifies for the tax credit. And with interest rates heading up, you might prefer to put down a large cash deposit.
 

OmbreCake

MYLR5 Blue/Black Gemini | No Tow | No FSD
Sep 28, 2021
137
219
Nashville, TN
Sorry if I missed this in previous posts, but whenever you decide to buy, if you want FSD you might consider the subscription model. It's $200/mo and can be turned off if finances warrant doing so. You'd be financing 12k less. 5 years would be your point of parity in terms of subscription cost and outright purchase of the feature. FSD goes with the car, when you sell, and it doesn't add much in terms of resell value.

Buying now would be a super ballsy move, with significant associated risk. My gut says wait it out a little longer; supreme commander Elon speaks of lowering prices, there's a possible tax credit coming, no one knows the depths to which the recession will go, etc. You're a guy that knows how to take care of business, so you'll be fine - but I'd hate for you to have to destroy your quality of life to do so if the worst happens. For me, I'd probably pad that emergency fund first. I gnawed into mine more than wanted to in exchange for a better LTV ratio but hey - they call it the "Tesla Stretch" for a reason.😅

It's just hard for me to justify the pricing. I ordered last September, and at the time I felt the price was my max for what the car is. I considered the VW ID.4, which is REALLY nice, with a lower MSRP plus an available tax credit - but there's just something about a Tesla. But, for me, there's not $70k worth of something about a Model Y.
 
I would also have to say don't do it. When I look at the sticker of our 2021 Y, I can't believe the price of the new ones. The wife had FSD (subscription) for a month and cancelled it, so from our experience drop that. You really have to trust the car for it to be worth it. EAP is a much better option IMO for the way we drive and I would add it to the Y if I weren't going to trade it in 2 years (maybe...waiting on the cybertruck). And before anyone says anything about us owning an X, we had more than one year combined salaries in a savings account before we pulled the trigger on it and don't have any debit other than the Y payment. We did have to put off a dream of ours for another year or two to get it but part of that has to do with the housing market in this weird city in which I reside. The other thing is I was driving an F350 and the monthly total cost of ownership was over $1600 per month on it. On the other hand only you can decide the risk/reward for the purchase.
 

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