In what year will annual EV sales in the US for the first time be at least 1%? 2014?

[Benz]

In what year will annual EV sales in the US for the first time be at least 1%?

2014?
2015?
2016?

Post your idea/guess/estimate/comment/prediction here.

Thanks

 

[Discoducky]

If you mean Electrified Vehicle then we could get there in 2015 per this data http://cleantechnica.com/2013/11/06/us-electric-car-sales-increased-361-2013-far/

If you mean pure EV then it is going to take GenIII as it would take about 600K total per this data http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesE

Or maybe TM will not be supply contained by batteries in 2015 and can ramp S and X to 100K. That could do it combined with Nissan and others most likely

 

[Owner]

I'm guessing it is already over 1% in California?

 

[Benz]

If you mean Electrified Vehicle then we could get there in 2015 per this data http://cleantechnica.com/2013/11/06/us-electric-car-sales-increased-361-2013-far/

If you mean pure EV then it is going to take GenIII as it would take about 600K total per this data http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesE

Or maybe TM will not be supply contained by batteries in 2015 and can ramp S and X to 100K. That could do it combined with Nissan and others most likely

Good point.

I think we should devide this in two separate questions:

One for vehicles that can be driven in a pure electric mode, AND that have a battery pack on board that can be charged with a plug, but are not only pure electric (Plug-In Hybrid, Range Extended).

And one for pure EV's (meaning NO ICE engine, NO tailpipe, and therefore ZERO CO2-Emissions).

By the way, FUEL-CELL vehicles are excluded (they do have a tailpipe, although they do have ZERO CO2-Emissions), as they are a totally different kind of cars (Hydrogen). And they belong to a totally different conversation (whether they will ever be successful or not).

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I'm guessing it is already over 1% in California?

That can be true (which is great), but we are talking about the US as a country, not on a state level. You see, the US are considered as pioneers in this regard when it comes to technology (by many people, including me). If the EV will be a worldwide success or not (in beating the sales of ICE vehicles), will first of all depend on the situation in the US. Some may disagree, but at least we can say that the US is a very important market for EV's (among others naturally).

 

[Owner]

True, but it is California that leads the US in technology….

That can be true (which is great), but we are talking about the US as a country, not on a state level. You see, the US are considered as pioneers in this regard when it comes to technology (by many people, including me). If the EV will be a worldwide success or not (in beating the sales of ICE vehicles), will first of all depend on the situation in the US. Some may disagree, but at least we can say that the US is a very important market for EV's (among others naturally).