Inexpensive electric vehicles may come sooner than you think.

[Dutchie]

The authors of the new study concluded that the battery packs used by market-leading EV manufacturers like Tesla and Nissan cost as little as $300 per kilowatt-hour of energy in 2014. That’s lower than the most optimistic published projections for 2015, and even below the average published projection for 2020. The authors found that batteries appear on track to reach $230 per kilowatt-hour[/QUOTE]

This is very interesting and echoes what Elon has been saying all along.

The Remarkable Plunge in the Cost of Electric Vehicles | MIT Technology Review

 

[eloder]

They're already here, for commuter/daily EVs.

The smart ED I have on order is $430 down, $139 a month for the lease in a state with zero incentives. It's just a matter of time until 200+ mile EVs follow soon.

 

[tomas]

Hmmm. That's $300 x 85 = $25,500 for 85 kWh battery that Tesla put retail price of I think $44k on? Sounds about right for markup of a supply constrained commodity.
At $230 per kWh, cost would be just under $20,000. If megafactory relieves supply/demand imbalance, that means if/when I need replacement (assuming retail markup goes to a more reasonable number), I could expect around $25k? That's a projection that's good to know.

 

[Johan]

Hmmm. That's $300 x 85 = $25,500 for 85 kWh battery that Tesla put retail price of I think $44k on? Sounds about right for markup of a supply constrained commodity.
At $230 per kWh, cost would be just under $20,000. If megafactory relieves supply/demand imbalance, that means if/when I need replacement (assuming retail markup goes to a more reasonable number), I could expect around $25k? That's a projection that's good to know.

The math sounds about right. Of course there's also some cost to constructing the pack, even if most of the cost are the cells themselves.

Also, you're talking about what the Megafactory could accomplish. Just imagine if they were to build a frickin' Gigafactory! (Sorry, just teasing a bit).

 

[MSEV]

They're already here, for commuter/daily EVs.

The smart ED I have on order is $430 down, $139 a month for the lease in a state with zero incentives. It's just a matter of time until 200+ mile EVs follow soon.

I am jealous. I can't get most EVs in my state (for example, Mercedes B Class, Fiat, Smart) because they won't sell (won't service) them here (in Nebraska). I would be very tempted to have a second EV for work and errands. A Smart ED at $430 down and $139 a month would do it for me, hold me over just about right until the Model 3 comes out.

 

[David99]

While there was doubt about the general success of the EV a year or two ago, I think it's obvious how all the big players in the car industry are going in now. There will be huge amounts of batteries produced. The Giga Factory won't be the only large production facility and prices will come down quite a bit.

 

[ChadS]

Hmmm. That's $300 x 85 = $25,500 for 85 kWh battery that Tesla put retail price of I think $44k on?

I think $45k was the initial price; as you note that was when Tesla was battery constrained and selling a battery would mean they could build one less car, so they no doubt had very significant margin built in to that price.

Tesla seems (?) to no longer be battery constrained, but rather by other elements of the production process. The stores are currently quoting $25k for an 85kWh battery (and $20k for a 60kWh). Plus shipping and installation.

My guess is that's just over their current total cost to build the battery - but I have no inside info, that's just a guess. Tesla does emphasize that $25k is pretty inexpensive for what you are getting.

 

[tomas]

The math sounds about right. Of course there's also some cost to constructing the pack, even if most of the cost are the cells themselves.

Also, you're talking about what the Megafactory could accomplish. Just imagine if they were to build a frickin' Gigafactory! (Sorry, just teasing a bit).

Yikes, I feel as if I went to Starbucks and ordered a large instead of a grande.

 

[eloder]

I am jealous. I can't get most EVs in my state (for example, Mercedes B Class, Fiat, Smart) because they won't sell (won't service) them here (in Nebraska). I would be very tempted to have a second EV for work and errands. A Smart ED at $430 down and $139 a month would do it for me, hold me over just about right until the Model 3 comes out.

I hate to hear that. Ohio is nearly as bad but fortunately my local smart center is ED certified and sells them. No physical inventory though so I'm currently in the middle of a seven month wait from production to delivery, but at the very least it was possible to order one.

Leaf prices (next cheapest EV in my city) are 300+ a month to lease. I'm glad a smart works for me because I couldn't possibly pay twice as much for as small of a step-up as a Leaf.

 

[brianman]

I think $45k was the initial price; as you note that was when Tesla was battery constrained and selling a battery would mean they could build one less car, so they no doubt had very significant margin built in to that price.

Tesla seems (?) to no longer be battery constrained, but rather by other elements of the production process. The stores are currently quoting $25k for an 85kWh battery (and $20k for a 60kWh). Plus shipping and installation.

My guess is that's just over their current total cost to build the battery - but I have no inside info, that's just a guess. Tesla does emphasize that $25k is pretty inexpensive for what you are getting.

I hadn't heard this (but I'm behind on many things lately). Reference/link? Thanks.

 

[ChadS]

I haven't seen anything online; I just heard it while talking to somebody at the Bellevue store.

 

[ChadS]

I mentioned that I hadn't heard anything online; they said they didn't think there was a public announcement, but it was a big deal internally and the product specialists were all told the new pricing so they could discuss it with customers that ask. (It did not include new Roadster battery pricing, unfortunately).