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Info and Hints from Elon Tweets

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That's why its good having Elon in the drivers seat. He does not walk away.

That's not exactly true.

He's made numerous statements that he's either gone back on (aka: clarified) or completely let fall by the wayside, especially when it comes to the older Model S's. He's promised software updates that I assume his engineers told him were too much work for legacy vehicles, so they put out amazing new products and forget the early adopters. These things happen. Even with Elon.
 
That's not exactly true.

He's made numerous statements that he's either gone back on (aka: clarified) or completely let fall by the wayside, especially when it comes to the older Model S's. He's promised software updates that I assume his engineers told him were too much work for legacy vehicles, so they put out amazing new products and forget the early adopters. These things happen. Even with Elon.
I have received recent software updates on my early 2013. The only promise I can recall not being kept is the lighted visors. That one really did fall by the wayside.
 
I have received recent software updates on my early 2013. The only promise I can recall not being kept is the lighted visors. That one really did fall by the wayside.

The one notable thing that comes to mind was that non-tech cars would get some form of navigation designed by Tesla and not Garmin (it's Garmin, right?). That would have been HUGE. Now the navigation on newer cars says it's by Tesla on Google maps but still nothing for non-tech cars. What-e-vah. If they can mirror a phone screen then that's a non-issue.

My point is that as much as I love the guy, even the great Elon Musk isn't infallible. He gets excited sometimes and he speaks from the cuff and occasionally says things he shouldn't have. It happens.
 
The one notable thing that comes to mind was that non-tech cars would get some form of navigation designed by Tesla and not Garmin (it's Garmin, right?). That would have been HUGE. Now the navigation on newer cars says it's by Tesla on Google maps but still nothing for non-tech cars. What-e-vah. If they can mirror a phone screen then that's a non-issue.

My point is that as much as I love the guy, even the great Elon Musk isn't infallible. He gets excited sometimes and he speaks from the cuff and occasionally says things he shouldn't have. It happens.

There are two navigation systems: Google is the on the 17" display and Navigon is the one on the instrument panel. Are you saying that the instrument panel now shows Google?
 
That's not exactly true.

He's made numerous statements that he's either gone back on (aka: clarified) or completely let fall by the wayside, especially when it comes to the older Model S's. He's promised software updates that I assume his engineers told him were too much work for legacy vehicles, so they put out amazing new products and forget the early adopters. These things happen. Even with Elon.
similarly, he mentioned at the Norway conference in April there would be a 4th gen economy priced model - while 'the Plan' specifically negated this. I expect since April, others at Tesla have told him it may not be practical to design a lower priced vehicle than the Model 3, because I fully expect there would have been plenty of customers ready to jump on a $20k Tesla but not at all interested in loaning out a $35k Tesla.
 
There are two navigation systems: Google is the on the 17" display and Navigon is the one on the instrument panel. Are you saying that the instrument panel now shows Google?
I'm not a tech owner, but both screens show the navigation when in use. For non-tech owners, we get Google maps on the 17" and that's it. No navigation on either. You can choose a destination on the Google map, and GPS shows where you are but that's it. Elon promised an in-house-designed navigation for all Tesla's, including older non-tech, and that never happened.

So let me ask you this: Is the navigation system that is now included with Tesla's still Navigon? Now the order pages just say "Onboard maps and navigation with free updates for 7 years", and it looks like it's just Tesla's, not Navigon's, based on the 17" saying something to the effect of "Tesla navigation on Google maps" in the bottom right corner of the 17" when it's navigating. I could be wrong. But if it isn't Navigon, Elon owes us non-tech owners an update!
 
So let me ask you this: Is the navigation system that is now included with Tesla's still Navigon? Now the order pages just say "Onboard maps and navigation with free updates for 7 years", and it looks like it's just Tesla's, not Navigon's, based on the 17" saying something to the effect of "Tesla navigation on Google maps" in the bottom right corner of the 17" when it's navigating. I could be wrong. But if it isn't Navigon, Elon owes us non-tech owners an update!

Tesla has integrated the two systems to some extent. The Google map on the 17" display is constantly updated by Google, and if you don't have the Tech package, that's all you get. There have been two Navigon upgrades, so counting the original, that's one per year for 2013 cars (Unless you have a Signature or very early production, then it's less).

I don't doubt that sometime Tesla will do a total refresh on the Nav system. I wouldn't expect it until they complete the SDK. My estimate is that it will come after the Tesla Pickup.
 
similarly, he mentioned at the Norway conference in April there would be a 4th gen economy priced model - while 'the Plan' specifically negated this. I expect since April, others at Tesla have told him it may not be practical to design a lower priced vehicle than the Model 3, because I fully expect there would have been plenty of customers ready to jump on a $20k Tesla but not at all interested in loaning out a $35k Tesla.
As of now, I don't think they have to go a lot lower. Depending on miles driven, the real cost of this car after factoring in fuel savings is more like $30k. It's a very real savings and so should be factored in. Still, going lower isn't a bad idea, but i think the current price point is pretty good as is, especially to the extent that the tax rebate remains in place.
 
As of now, I don't think they have to go a lot lower. Depending on miles driven, the real cost of this car after factoring in fuel savings is more like $30k. It's a very real savings and so should be factored in. Still, going lower isn't a bad idea, but i think the current price point is pretty good as is, especially to the extent that the tax rebate remains in place.


The problem with using the gas savings as a measuring stick is that it varies so widely.

What part of the country are you in?
What type of fuel does your current ICE take?
Do you have access to Sam's Club or BJ's or some other "discount"?
How far is your commute?
How many miles/week do you drive?

It's nice to give yourself a ballpark figure, but just remember when you run those numbers, they're "yours" and not necessarily going to correlate to someone else's situation.
 
The problem with using the gas savings as a measuring stick is that it varies so widely.

What part of the country are you in?
What type of fuel does your current ICE take?
Do you have access to Sam's Club or BJ's or some other "discount"?
How far is your commute?
How many miles/week do you drive?

It's nice to give yourself a ballpark figure, but just remember when you run those numbers, they're "yours" and not necessarily going to correlate to someone else's situation.
That could be said for nearly any decision in the world. A simple average will give you an idea of what society will experience, on average. It's always up to each person to make their own decision.

These calculations have been done many times, but the attached file shows the calculations with a variety of assumptions. The national average miles driven is 13,500 and so the initial take was based on that, but I did it for 10,000 miles as well and you'll see that in the numbers. I assumed that the average car might keep the original battery for 15 years and so I stopped the calculations there, and I used a variety of discount rates. The 10Y bond rate is 1.55% and the discount rates used in this calculation varied from 6-9%, so I think there's a good bit of conservatism built into those numbers as well. You'll also see variations based on regular/premium gas prices and electric consumption differences between the Model S 90D and Model 3 (expected).

At the end of the day, the savings for someone who drives below the average, so 10,000 miles per year, is going to vary from just $4,000 up to $7,500. If you drive the average of 13,500 miles per year, the savings will vary from $5,500 up to nearly $10,000.

I tried to attach the spreadsheet for anyone who wants to play around with it, but Excel files aren't allowed here. If you know of another place I can upload it, let me know and I'll share it, or just send me a message with your email and I'll send it there.

Miles driven: How Many Miles Do Americans Drive Per Year?
Average gas price: AAA Gas Prices ($2.66 premium)
Electric prices, May 2016 residential pricing: EIA - Electricity Data
Average mpg: Average U.S. mpg edges up to 25.5 in May

upload_2016-7-27_10-46-20.png


upload_2016-7-27_10-46-36.png
 
I have received recent software updates on my early 2013. The only promise I can recall not being kept is the lighted visors. That one really did fall by the wayside.

Let's not forget the promised fix for ventilation in the S jump seat area. I am reminded of this one every time I put my kid back there on the wrong kind of day, and despite the tinting he still complains he's being roasted. But that's the downside. Upside: if I keep promising to let him crawl out of the jump seat and into the back seat, and just keep promising and promising, eventually he succumbs to heat exhaustion and falls sweetly unconscious for a long time. :)(*)

Alan

(*)It's OK, I can do this safely, as I've watched every episode of ER.
 
Let's not forget the promised fix for ventilation in the S jump seat area. I am reminded of this one every time I put my kid back there on the wrong kind of day, and despite the tinting he still complains he's being roasted. But that's the downside. Upside: if I keep promising to let him crawl out of the jump seat and into the back seat, and just keep promising and promising, eventually he succumbs to heat exhaustion and falls sweetly unconscious for a long time. :)(*)

Alan

(*)It's OK, I can do this safely, as I've watched every episode of ER.
Welcome to Nogglenation.com - Making The Backseat Cool Again!!

This works awesome for our kids in the back...not a factory solution, but does work quite well.
 
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Reactions: Pollux
Let's not forget the promised fix for ventilation in the S jump seat area. I am reminded of this one every time I put my kid back there on the wrong kind of day, and despite the tinting he still complains he's being roasted. But that's the downside. Upside: if I keep promising to let him crawl out of the jump seat and into the back seat, and just keep promising and promising, eventually he succumbs to heat exhaustion and falls sweetly unconscious for a long time. :)(*)

Alan

(*)It's OK, I can do this safely, as I've watched every episode of ER.

Be careful: Your son is also learning that Dad doesn't keep his word.