Didn't Elon just say that current battery cost is at about $245 per kWh?? That's $22,050 for a 90 kWh battery. So basically he's ripping you off by forcing you to give back your original battery rather than allowing you to sell it privately. Plus he said once the gigafactory opens, he expects the cost to come down to $185 per kWh. These numbers are based on memory, but I think they're pretty close. Chevy just said their cost per kWh is only $145. Elon said he expects to get the cost down to $100 per kWh.
Cost != Price
My battery shows 13% degradation and I found another battery I could buy private party and they told me they'd void my warranty if I did. Despite the fact that they temporarily offered a battery swap program that took 90 seconds to change the battery. And there was a program in place you could pay the price of a tank of gas and just keep the battery they swapped into your car. So, they won't replace my battery under warrant and won't even let me buy another battery and pay to do it myself.
No, the battery swap program requires you to return the pack you "borrowed" when they swapped in on your outbound journey. The $40 per swap does NOT include the price you'd have to pay if you didn't swap back to your original pack.
Back to the original point though, Tesla has set the $22,500 battery upgrade price + $5,000 Ludicrous upgrade at a point where they know that no reasonable person will buy it. At that price, as others have said, you're better off just upgrading your entire car to a new one, likely for the same price or less.
Agree that the battery capacity upgrade isn't worth it right now (Elon does too, by the way).
Disagree on the Ludicrous upgrade though: in my opinion, it is actually worth it (see reasoning below) and I'll bet you will find MANY current P85D believe it too. Heck, the waiting list was huge even when the price was $7,500!
The way I look at it is this: Ludicrous is a SOFTWARE option for new P90D cars (including the X), as we established that all current 90kWh packs are the same regardless of the model, hence are all technically capable of Ludicrous.
So when ordering a new P90D, the $10,000 Ludicrous option is basically turning on the software to unleash the current (1500A) that the 90kWh pack can produce. IMHO this price is, indeed, ludicrous.
For the P85D, on the other hand, upgrading to Ludicrous involves hardware work since the 85kWh packs aren't capable of producing enough current for Ludicrous (limited to 1300A).
Upgrading now for $5,000 gives you 2/10th of a second in 0-60 mph and 1/4-mile time. This isn't much by any means, could be enough for some to justify the upgrade.
HOWEVER, if all current 90kWh packs and future larger packs are also capable of Ludicrous, when I decide to upgrade my pack to a larger capacity, it will retain my Ludicrous software setting.
And guess what, it won't be just a 2/10th second improvement over the 0-60mph or, more importantly, the 1/4-mile time. Performance will be on par with new
P90D models, as confirmed by Tesla in the email they sent me.
So for those who may be interested in upgrading their battery packs at a future time (say, in 3 or 4 years) to benefit from a substantial increase in range, I view the $5,000 upgrade to Ludicrous now as a safe bet for small performance improvements now - but more interestingly, large performance improvements in the future.
And as battery prices continue to drop, I am hopeful that there will a much more affordable 100kWh or higher pack upgrade in a few years. Thinking long-term, doing the Ludicrous upgrade now is making more and more sense to me.