Initial 75 kwh? Don't think so.

[03DSG]

Elon: The shorter wheelbase only allows for a 75 kWh pack in Model 3 at current cell/module energy densities.
Old news I'm aware. I can't see Tesla releasing this battery size prior to the expected PXXD (L). It may be much more likely they release 55kwh and 65/70kwh in the initial RWD/AWD run. To release the 75 early gives them less room for the performance increase on the P version.
Ben Sullins at Teslanomics released this with data from a private source. Interesting it shows 55 and 70:

 

[Bokonon]

Interesting video, but starting at 3:10 he makes it clear that the 55/70 kWh numbers specifically are "assumptions" and "estimates" for the battery size based on his own thinking and the "prevailing thinking in the community". (Clearly, he doesn't hang out here very often...)

I'm estimating everything that I've seen that those will be the two sizes that will have available for the Model 3. There may be a third, there may be a bigger one, but right now this seems to be the prevailing thinking in the community.

Could the 55/70 kWh sizes end up being right? Sure, it's possible. But I don't think that these sizes are any more credible than the other size estimates floating around simply because other elements of his spreadsheet (he never specifies which) are informed by "some data from an anonymous source".

 

[JeffK]

To release the 75 early gives them less room for the performance increase on the P version.

A more powerful rear motor takes care of that...

The video is a little outdated as they've stated they've already reached a 35% reduction from "under $190 / kWh" ...err maybe that's their aim after the first year.

Depending on how low they were below $190 / kWh in 2016 it could be significantly less than $130. Other gigafactories aren't even being factored.

Let's pretend they were getting a similar rate from Panasonic that GM was from LG at $145 / kWh at the cell level. Let's multiply by 130% to get a theoretical pack price of $188.5 / kWh... 188 * .65 = $122.2 / kWh, of course we don't know that, but we do know their initial aim was to drop the price / kWh at the pack level to under $100.

There were rumors that Tesla was near $150 at the pack level already. If this is the case, then 150 * .65 puts them right where they were aiming.

 

[03DSG]

Interesting and informative comments. On the Model S Tesla has moved the P version up to the largest battery pack. P85 to P90 to P100 as capacity increased. I believe in the S there was physical space for additional capacity with smaller capacity batteries using 'spacers'. By Elon comments 75 kWh will fill the physical capacity of the M3. This would leave cell/modular energy densities as th only way to increase kWh'. Yes a larger rear motor will certainly help the P version and like the S just lower the range.

 

[gregincal]

Interesting and informative comments. On the Model S Tesla has moved the P version up to the largest battery pack. P85 to P90 to P100 as capacity increased. I believe in the S there was physical space for additional capacity with smaller capacity batteries using 'spacers'. By Elon comments 75 kWh will fill the physical capacity of the M3. This would leave cell/modular energy densities as th only way to increase kWh'. Yes a larger rear motor will certainly help the P version and like the S just lower the range.

Sure the P version has the largest battery, but always exactly the same size battery as the largest non-P version. Why would that be any different for the 3?

 

[Booga]

Sure the P version has the largest battery, but always exactly the same size battery as the largest non-P version. Why would that be any different for the 3?

I came here to say this too. If I remember correctly, the difference will be in the material used to transfer power, because the P versions use inconel, which is more expensive, but allows greater power delivery. It would be just the same in the 3.

I'm hopeful for a high end range of 300 miles from the 3. I know that's asking for a lot, but it's the magical number I need to make the car work. I drive about 200 miles on a normal week and so I can make that happen with an 80% charge, charging once per week then. (Access to overnight charging is too expensive for me to install at this point)

 

[ProphetM]

At this point I'm expecting 55/75 at launch. There are a lot of people (myself included) that want the max range without having to wait ages for P production to begin in order to get it. It's going to be a profit center for them, and Tesla needs the perception of viability that the biggest battery will provide. I am another one who's hopeful they can eke out a range just over 300 miles because that's a huge mental hurdle to clear for the general public. On the other hand they also need to shield themselves from charges of vaporware with regard to the $35,000 starting price, so I expect the base battery to be available to configure from the start, even if production might be a little later than the larger battery. If they begin production of the smaller battery version later, I would still expect a semi-firm date upon ordering - a specific month of expected delivery or production, for instance, one that is less than 5 months away. (For people who already reserved and are near the front of the line, that is.)

 

[Runt8]

I kind of feel like Elon shot himself in the foot a bit by telling everyone that 75 was the largest that would physically fit. If there isn't a 75 available at launch, people will be upset and potentially cancel their orders to wait for the larger one. If there is one available, then they've lost the ability to increase it in the future like they have for the Model S.

I personally think there will be a 75 at launch (or shortly after), and possibly a couple years in the future a "reconfigured" battery pack that allows for higher capacity in the same space.

 

[ikjadoon]

Model 3 production rumours I have

This source, which has been spot-on about everything else, says launch is only the big battery (75kWh). Smaller batteries are coming later.

 

[03DSG]

I personally think there will be a 75 at launch (or shortly after), and possibly a couple years in the future a "reconfigured" battery pack that allows for higher capacity in the same space.

This source, which has been spot-on about everything else, says launch is only the big battery (75kWh). Smaller batteries are coming later.

I should have added in my original post that I as well want the biggest battery right away. If its offered initially with the RWD I'll take it. Hands down.

 

[Vistan]

I think the biggest battery in the 3 will be 70kWh. Tesla will want to maintain the separation between the S/X and the 3 by saying, truthfully, that the 3 has a smaller battery.

 

[JeffK]

I think the biggest battery in the 3 will be 70kWh. Tesla will want to maintain the separation between the S/X and the 3 by saying, truthfully, that the 3 has a smaller battery.

A 70 kWh might not get the magic 300 miles range... that would be a mistake.

 

[R.S]

I think the biggest battery in the 3 will be 70kWh. Tesla will want to maintain the separation between the S/X and the 3 by saying, truthfully, that the 3 has a smaller battery.

Not that I'd disagree with the assumption, that the Model 3 will generally have the smaller battery, even the top version. Tesla surely could upgrade the base Model S and X to have more than 75kWh.

 

[smak]

It makes sense to start with the big battery if they're trying to make similar cars to start, since most people will go for the big battery, and they'll blow away the Bolt in miles.

Problem is, that's not a $35k car, which loses a bit of the luster publicly.

 

[WileyTheMan]

Model 3 production rumours I have

This source, which has been spot-on about everything else, says launch is only the big battery (75kWh). Smaller batteries are coming later.

Can't say I agree with that thinking. He needs to hit that $35,000 promise and that means offering the smaller battery to start.

 

[smak]

Can't say I agree with that thinking. He needs to hit that $35,000 promise and that means offering the smaller battery to start.

The initial rumor in February of RWD and big batteries first was a month before Tesla announced RWD first.

So he seems to get good info.

 

[tracksyde]

The car is still $35,000.. its just that they may plan to prioritize the building of the bigger battery cars first (somewhat inline with the "well-equipped cars first" thinking).

You want a $35,000 Model 3.. sure, you'll get it.. you just get it after the more expensive cars. I dont see any broken promises there.

 

[ikjadoon]

The car is still $35,000.. its just that they may plan to prioritize the building of the bigger battery cars first (somewhat inline with the "well-equipped cars first" thinking).

You want a $35,000 Model 3.. sure, you'll get it.. you just get it after the more expensive cars. I dont see any broken promises there.

Exactly. Model S was promised under $50k. The first ~1000 Model S deliveries were all Signature Series, $77k.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If there's no 75kWh, it's for one of two reasons:
(1) they haven't yet reached the density Elon Musk's talking about.
(2) they're having problems making enough cells
Otherwise, it makes no sense not to sell the 75kWh given that it'd have more range (more than the Bolt), and charge 75/55 = 1.(36)r times as fast as the 55kWh (assuming the smaller size is 55kWh), making the car much better. It's especially true since they can make use of the tax credit to upsell capacity to buyers who might otherwise just buy the 55kWh.

 

[wallet.dat]

What was the biggest battery when the S came out? What was the battery size when the first dual motor P version debuted?