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Tam
Well-Known Member
It will happen sometime for sure but the exact timing is still elusive unless there's a definite deadline bet by Musk (like 100 days or yours for free!).
I have just done some calculations to see how this would affect the Model S range. Here are the results:
Model S 75D: 259 to 266 miles (7 miles increase)
Model S 100D: 335 to 346 miles (11 miles increase)
I have a spreadsheet here to calculate Model S and Model 3 range based on weight, drag coefficient, and drag area. I've calculated the 75 and 100 kWh pack weights from the 85 pack data. The assumption is the 85 pack weighs 1200 pounds (544 kg).
85 kWh: Actual capacity = 81.5 kWh
Case weight: 100 kg
Module with 18650 cells: 444 kg cells
Pack weight with 18650 cells: 544 kg
75 kWh: Actual capacity = 75.0 kWh
Case weight: 100 kg
Module weight with 18650 cells: 409 kg cells
Pack weight with 18650 cells: 509 kg
Module weight with 2170 cells: 327 kg cells
Pack weight with 2170 cells: 427 kg
Weight reduction: 82 kg
100 kWh: Actual capacity = 102.4 kWh
Case weight: 100 kg
Module weight with 18650 cells: 558 kg cells
Pack weight with 18650 cells: 658 kg
Module weight with 2170 cells: 446 kg cells
Pack weight with 2170 cells: 546 kg
Weight reduction: 112 kg
Model S 75D: 259 to 266 miles (7 miles increase)
Model S 100D: 335 to 346 miles (11 miles increase)
I have a spreadsheet here to calculate Model S and Model 3 range based on weight, drag coefficient, and drag area. I've calculated the 75 and 100 kWh pack weights from the 85 pack data. The assumption is the 85 pack weighs 1200 pounds (544 kg).
85 kWh: Actual capacity = 81.5 kWh
Case weight: 100 kg
Module with 18650 cells: 444 kg cells
Pack weight with 18650 cells: 544 kg
75 kWh: Actual capacity = 75.0 kWh
Case weight: 100 kg
Module weight with 18650 cells: 409 kg cells
Pack weight with 18650 cells: 509 kg
Module weight with 2170 cells: 327 kg cells
Pack weight with 2170 cells: 427 kg
Weight reduction: 82 kg
100 kWh: Actual capacity = 102.4 kWh
Case weight: 100 kg
Module weight with 18650 cells: 558 kg cells
Pack weight with 18650 cells: 658 kg
Module weight with 2170 cells: 446 kg cells
Pack weight with 2170 cells: 546 kg
Weight reduction: 112 kg
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BluestarE3
Active Member
Hmm... a gap in the audio at the most inopportune time? Sounds like someone may have done a "Rose Mary Stretch"?
For those of you too young or who may have forgotten:
Rose Mary Woods - Wikipedia
Here is my guess at the 2170 cell transition steps for the Model S and X.
The 75 kWh battery will be replaced with a battery that is very similar to the large pack on the model 3 (rumored to be 70 kWh). This will use the same battery modules as the Model 3. We will see this when Tesla meets it 18650 cell order requirements and when Panasonic converts some of its production capacity to make 2170 cells.
The second part of transition will occur around August when the 100 kWh pack gets 2170 cells and V3 supercharging. The battery pack will be incompatible with current cars as it will have a much higher voltage. I wouldn't expect a larger battery pack as that will be reserved to drum up demand at a later date. Other cars will likely get V3 supercharging/higher voltage battery packs in 2018.
The 75 kWh battery will be replaced with a battery that is very similar to the large pack on the model 3 (rumored to be 70 kWh). This will use the same battery modules as the Model 3. We will see this when Tesla meets it 18650 cell order requirements and when Panasonic converts some of its production capacity to make 2170 cells.
The second part of transition will occur around August when the 100 kWh pack gets 2170 cells and V3 supercharging. The battery pack will be incompatible with current cars as it will have a much higher voltage. I wouldn't expect a larger battery pack as that will be reserved to drum up demand at a later date. Other cars will likely get V3 supercharging/higher voltage battery packs in 2018.
It is based on Elon and JB's statements HERE, during the Q2 2014 conference call. They said the Gigafactory cells will have higher energy density because of changes in the chemistry. Listen to the audio. Energy density means energy per volume and energy per weight.
In addition, above I said, "the assumption is the 85 pack weighs 1200 pounds (544 kg)." After I said that, I found THIS data source that shows 545 kg for the 85 kWh pack.
@Topher. I don't see your messages because you are on my ignore list. You don't need to ask me anything. I don't care.
To others: Don't go around downvoting people if you want to ask them questions later. HERE is exhibit 1. The ironic thing is, my prediction about the 75 kWh battery in that message turned out to be true. I also expect to be right about the 55 kWh smaller battery. I usually get downvoted by spam users who are detached from reality. These are the kind of people that will repeatedly support some unrealistic idea.
Rashomon
Member
Troy, I hope you're right on the energy density of the 2170 cells, but I've been looking for information outside of Staubel's comments and there just hasn't been any yet. Nor is it completely clear which generation of 18650 cells he's comparing to. I would be very pleased to see 6.0ah 2170s, but nothing like that has been on any battery company's roadmap -- at least any roadmap I've seen. I would love to be pleasantly surprised, as this would be one of the biggest jumps in energy density since Panasonic released 3.2ah 18650s a little more than 6 years ago. (They also announced the still vaporware 4.0ah cells about the same time.). Are you also assuming the 2170 cells weigh 75 grams?
18550s have proven their durability on the field quite well. Degradation (or lack of) has surpassed most of our expectations.
On the other hand 2170 has not seen a single summer yet.
Just saying.. watch out what you wish for.
On the other hand 2170 has not seen a single summer yet.
Just saying.. watch out what you wish for.
They can run the same chemistry in 2170 as they do in 18650, so the difference isn't in durability or degradation unless there are internal changes as well. the 2170 offers 30+% more capacity per cell, and the increase in volume is less than that so that's where the gains come from even with no alterations in cell chemistry. It's just a better way to package cells. Since the 100kwh battery was effectively the most capacity that could be packed in the S/X battery footprint without finding a chemistry that is just as durable while also more energy dense, the shift to 2170 makes it easier to increase that density without needing to rely on chemistry differences. Early 90 kwh packs showed that even promising differences in chemistry can prove less durable compared to the previous cells over time.
Also, Tesla / Panasonic didn't invent the 2170, it's years old (2015) and was released by Samsung/LG specifically for EVs, and has seen several summers in electric vehicles already.
SEC filings from years ago showed the 18650 contract ends in 2018, it will definitely be this year that S and X are refreshed to hold 2170 cells. Tesla is already asking the EPA to reduce its rated range on the Model 3 to keep it lower than the Model S 100 battery, so they are in a pInch to actually get the premium cars to have a better real world range before that knowledge becomes commonplace. People expect the flagship cars to have the newer technologies, and both the battery and the motors in the S/X are outdated tech compared to other cars inTesla production now.
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Agreed. However, the only issue I see is the gigafactory will be pumping out 2170s for the Model 3 at insane rates due to the demand. I just don’t see them commissioning extra resources to create 2170s for the S/X.
This was discussed on the Q4 earnings call. "The company expects to deliver 100,000 Model S and X vehicles in 2018. Tesla said production will be constrained by the supply of cells with the old 18650 form factor. Tesla uses the 18650"
That would seem to imply no switch this year
That would seem to imply no switch this year
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