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Discussion in 'Model S' started by AnOutsider, Jun 26, 2012.
Inside Tesla - 06.26.12 | Blog | Tesla Motors
What a tease! 5PM for those on the East Coast
With everything going on from the weekend's event I forgot it's Tuesday! Can't wait to get my fix for the week.
The Interviews from after the ride??
and release party?
mainly interviews! and :biggrin:
Didn't realize GeorgeB was going to keep this up after he wrapped up the 4-part series on the manufacturing process! Cool!
I would most like to hear about the delivery of #11 and dare I hope, #12?
I would like to hear about delivery #4771. :tongue:
Yeah, me too!
In my conversation with GeorgeB at the event, he said that ramp up was going to be painfully slow for many people. They really want to make sure the that each car that goes to a customer is perfect. In the short run the wait will be painful, in the long run I'm sure that we will all appreciate them rewarding early-adopters with high quality cars.
Good to hear overall of course, that they want to get it right. But sounds like I might need to change my sig counter out by about a month or so.
How slow can it be? They still want to deliver 5000 cars by year-end. If they're doing 80/day in November/December, that's around 41 days x 80 cars = 3280 cars in those two months (I'm not even including getting the car from the factory to the owner). That would mean they need to produce around 1800 cars in July/August/Sept/Oct, which averages to 450 cars/month, or around 22 cars/day.
I know others have done more detailed analyses on the possible ramp-up schedule, but even on this simple math the projections Tesla is offering don't make sense. Someone on another thread (Sig 900+) said their expected due date from Tesla was October. If that were actually true, I don't see any way Tesla gets anything close to 5000 cars done this year. If they're not going to get 5000 cars done this year, they'd better let everyone know sooner rather than later, because the stock will take a hit when that is announced.
I, of course, prefer to believe that they are under-promising by a month on the expected delivery date and that almost all Sigs will be delivered by the end of September, which comports to a schedule to get 5000 cars done by year-end. (fingers crossed)
Morgan Stanley is skeptical about the rampup as well although they raised their production estimates from 2,000 to 3,000 cars by year-end recently.
It's going to be a painful few months...
Is that the same Morgan Stanley that did the brilliant underwriting job on the Facebook IPO? I might just take their estimations with a few grains of salt... :tongue: (Sorry, off topic, I know...)
I know it isn't just the one dude named "Morgan" there, but the Facebook IPO does indicate a certain amount of magical thinking on their part.
If the Sigs are complete by end of October, then 5000 by end of year seems appropriate. If they are not, then the numbers could fall short.
The slow ramp up will be painful. The number of cars estimated for July is really low. Ditto for August. September has many cars, and we don't have much data for tracking Oct-Dec at this point. At current rates, however, we aren't seeing even 20% of the rate that is needed to reach 5000 (P3800 or so, all North America Sigs done) by end of year. So I understand the conservative estimates from places like Morgan Stanley.
That person was probably me. I did not read much into my CR's statement, it's a "feeling", not a fact. It was in no way an official statement, and I did not interpret it as such.
Lots of things can go wrong during ramp. Getting it right is key. If they don't make 5K by the end of the year, that's fine with me, stock hit or not. As long as they make steady improvements in both speed and quality of manufacturing during ramp and dial in the recipe for producing perfect cars every time, they're doing the right thing IMO.
It'd be a huge mistake to put any priority on a specific # of cars by a certain date at this time, since that would necessitate cutting corners, and _that_ will come back to haunt them (as it would any manufacturer of products that get as much customer scrutiny as cars do).
Thanks, Mitch. It was you. When you finalize your paperwork you will get a firm date of expected delivery on your pre-MVPA, which for me (Sig #304) is September 2012, and will probably say October 2012 for you.
I completely agree that I'd rather wait an extra month and make sure that my car, and all others, are as high quality as possible. However, Tesla was very bold in saying they were making 5000 this year, and they were very specific on the number (and the date) when they didn't have to be. In the same way they said July 2012 for first deliveries, which I assumed would be July 31st, and they beat that by at least a month, I expect that, absent some significant issues during the next couple of months, that they will want to be roughly one month ahead of the dates in the pre-MVPAs in order to try to hit their 5000 car goal.
It would only make sense that Tesla would build in at least a month of buffer in case something (or several things) go wrong as they start to ramp up production, so whether or not they hit their 5000 car goal for 2012 will probably depend on how many bumps along the way they hit, and how significant they are, because otherwise they really should be able to beat the expectations by around a month that they're setting in the pre-MVPA paperwork.
That is my suspicion/hope as well.
As we watch cars roll off the line this summer, it won't seem like Tesla will make the 5,000 cars in 2012. The ramp up will start very slowly for a lot of reasons. However, since Tesla has indicated their goal of 5,000 cars in 2012, I have no doubt that they will achieve this goal. Personally, I'm feeling really good about the factory meeting the quota. I'm a little fuzzy on the logistics of getting 5,000 cars to customers (in a 6 month time frame). Closing these deals and recognizing the sale transactions on the books. Even if 20% of these cars will be picked up at the factory, that still leaves 4,000 cars to ship to various places (with 2/3 of those shipping in November and December).
I have confidence Tesla will deliver as promised. It will be an educational experience to watch Tesla deliver over the next 6 months!
Many people will be 'gettin learned' about Tesla pretty soon....
(the word is not out yet based on my speaking w/ just about everyone I run into )
and I will get mine from Fremont so I can do a 400+ mi drive for my first trip home with my 1st child (sorry dogs you might lose your place - same as if I had a kid) :biggrin:
Blog is online...