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Interesting Article on Tesla By Germans

user212_nr

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dhanson865

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on that thought Tesla is moving up the ranks. Right on the heels of the 2 big German players.

upload_2019-11-11_19-21-13.png


not my sheet but from Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap which was shared on reddit.
 

mspohr

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Jul 27, 2014
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Does Germany’s Vaunted Car Industry Have Long to Live? Opinion | Does Germany’s Vaunted Car Industry Have Long to Live?

These two pieces of news seem to confirm a narrative that is gaining traction. It goes like this: Germany has failed to embrace the future. It has been complacent for too long, economically and politically, coasting on former glories. Now the new world is coming for it.

Ironically, the industry ended up weaker for Germany’s protectionist politics within the union, experts say. Under the lax European Union carbon dioxide caps, German car builders had little incentive to modernize their fleets. So while they kept on building and selling tank-like vehicles, companies like Tesla developed rapidly, leaving Germany behind both technologically and in securing markets. Part of the big job cuts the industry is facing now can be attributed to this failure
 

user212_nr

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Aug 26, 2019
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Does Germany’s Vaunted Car Industry Have Long to Live? Opinion | Does Germany’s Vaunted Car Industry Have Long to Live?

These two pieces of news seem to confirm a narrative that is gaining traction. It goes like this: Germany has failed to embrace the future. It has been complacent for too long, economically and politically, coasting on former glories. Now the new world is coming for it.

These companies, like GM are most likely "too big to fail" in the sense that they will always get government support in the event of a catastrophe. Their progress on EVs is considerable, but it may take every last penny out of them to survive. Remember when people were all clamoring for Tesla to die... the same will likely happen with them someday. The early cars won't be profitable, have delays, volume, etc.

Then you have the narrative, yet to materialize, where profit margins on ICE vehicles drop to zero due to competition from electric. Used ICE cars from electric buyers will flood the market, etc.

Germany is the first to realize it because Tesla Model 3 competes direct with entry level Mercedes and BMW. It will be far worse for companies like GM, which will feel it later. The Cybertruck will be their first real competitor.
 
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linux-works

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"German cars were considered "das Auto" par excellence and Audi's advertising slogan "Vorsprung durch Technik" (Progress through technology) became one of the few German terms actually known in English."

huh? never heard of that phrase, ever; english or otherwise. anyone else who is a native english speaker hear of this? did they just make that up?
 

Quorky

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Oct 1, 2019
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on that thought Tesla is moving up the ranks. Right on the heels of the 2 big German players.

View attachment 475795

not my sheet but from Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap which was shared on reddit.

Market cap is one thing, but in Tesla's case that market cap reflects significant sales growth expectations. I am not knocking tesla, but GM sold 17million vehicles compared to Tesla's 400k. Yeah, tesla says they can achieve 25% long run margins vs the industry in the teens, but that will certainly hamper growth and with the expiring rebates the prices will need to adjust lower. A lot of growth is already packed into Tesla's market cap...
 
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dhanson865

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Market cap is one thing, but in Tesla's case that market cap reflects significant sales growth expectations. I am not knocking tesla, but GM sold 17million vehicles compared to Tesla's 400k. Yeah, tesla says they can achieve 25% long run margins vs the industry in the teens, but that will certainly hamper growth and with the expiring rebates the prices will need to adjust lower. A lot of growth is already packed into Tesla's market cap...

Care to site a source and more specifically the scope for the numbers you posted? GM hasn't posted 2019 numbers yet so is that for 2018? Same for Tesla?


and Significant or not Tesla has solidly moved up that list ahead of Daimler now.

upload_2020-1-1_1-13-54.png
 

Quorky

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Care to site a source and more specifically the scope for the numbers you posted? GM hasn't posted 2019 numbers yet so is that for 2018? Same for Tesla?


and Significant or not Tesla has solidly moved up that list ahead of Daimler now.

View attachment 495146

GM numbers...

GM: Sales slip as year ends, sealing 3rd straight annual drop

As for Tesla

Tesla: vehicle deliveries by quarter 2019 | Statista

I gave tesla even more to a benefit of doubt by annualizing the 3rd quarter to 400k while in reality they didn't break 250 for the first 3 quarters of 2019...

Not sure what your argument is here but my point is that share price of tesla and their market cap has an extremely high valuation based on extrapolated future growth profile. Think of it as a tech growth company rather than an established automaker. Whether that is right or wrong will be dictated by tesla hitting the goal posts along the way.
 
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mspohr

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GM numbers...

GM: Sales slip as year ends, sealing 3rd straight annual drop

As for Tesla

Tesla: vehicle deliveries by quarter 2019 | Statista

I gave tesla even more to a benefit of doubt by annualizing the 3rd quarter to 400k while in reality they didn't break 250 for the first 3 quarters of 2019...

Not sure what your argument is here but my point is that share price of tesla and their market cap has an extremely high valuation based on extrapolated future growth profile. Think of it as a tech growth company rather than an established automaker. Whether that is right or wrong will be dictated by tesla hitting the goal posts along the way.
Peak (ICE) Auto was 2017. It's been downhill for everyone except Tesla since then. GM and Ford have been coasting on pickup truck sales but Tesla and Rivian will eat their lunch. The Germans have been replying on SUV sales but Tesla Y will end that.
 

MorrisonHiker

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Mar 8, 2015
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"German cars were considered "das Auto" par excellence and Audi's advertising slogan "Vorsprung durch Technik" (Progress through technology) became one of the few German terms actually known in English."

huh? never heard of that phrase, ever; english or otherwise. anyone else who is a native english speaker hear of this? did they just make that up?

Yes, I remember it.

I also remember Fahrvergnügen. Who could forget that one? Lol.
 

Quorky

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Oct 1, 2019
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Peak (ICE) Auto was 2017. It's been downhill for everyone except Tesla since then. GM and Ford have been coasting on pickup truck sales but Tesla and Rivian will eat their lunch. The Germans have been replying on SUV sales but Tesla Y will end that.

I am certainly rooting for them, but tesla is not a real competitor by any means to these guys yet. They can take a bite out of BMW/audi/benz sales but nobody thinks that for your pickup category anybody is gonna switch to the cyber truck or anything tesla. The die hard gmc/gm/ford base isn't going to drive an electric truck, at least not in the next decade.
 

mspohr

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Jul 27, 2014
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I am certainly rooting for them, but tesla is not a real competitor by any means to these guys yet. They can take a bite out of BMW/audi/benz sales but nobody thinks that for your pickup category anybody is gonna switch to the cyber truck or anything tesla. The die hard gmc/gm/ford base isn't going to drive an electric truck, at least not in the next decade.
The financially ignorant will stick with ICE. Everyone else will go with Tesla Rivian.
 

SO16

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Feb 25, 2016
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I am certainly rooting for them, but tesla is not a real competitor by any means to these guys yet. They can take a bite out of BMW/audi/benz sales but nobody thinks that for your pickup category anybody is gonna switch to the cyber truck or anything tesla. The die hard gmc/gm/ford base isn't going to drive an electric truck, at least not in the next decade.

If GM and Ford are as complacent about their pickups as you are, they are in for a world of hurt.
 
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Quorky

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If GM and Ford are as complacent about their pickups as you are, they are in for a world of hurt.

I am certainly not the one who is complacent here... you don't seem to understand why the models you are quoting are not a competition for the average market in the US currently. Have a little chat with people who own the actual trucks and you will realize the transition is a decade away or more. Your "world of hurt" argument is nonsense, because the people purchasing the cyber truck and rivian are not the same people that are purchasing GM / DODGE / Ford / GE...

When those two models do come out, pay attention to the decline in the American truck sales (if any) and you will see that the Tesla models are not cannibalizing the American truck sales but a different segment of the market. The complacency lies with you here.
 
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Quorky

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Oct 1, 2019
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The financially ignorant will stick with ICE. Everyone else will go with Tesla Rivian.

When is the Rivian coming out? I am curious (have to do a little more research) on average age of a truck on the road and the potential turnover. I wouldn't mind getting a rivian when it comes out. Let's see if Tesla steps up customer service by that time, cause if they don't, it won't be as successful as it potentially can be.

Edit: I got confused on who makes the Rivian. Problem with rivian is the charging infrastructure. What are they gonna use for public charging options?
 
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SO16

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Feb 25, 2016
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I am certainly not the one who is complacent here... you don't seem to understand why the models you are quoting are not a competition for the average market in the US currently. Have a little chat with people who own the actual trucks and you will realize the transition is a decade away or more. Your "world of hurt" argument is nonsense, because the people purchasing the cyber truck and rivian are not the same people that are purchasing GM / DODGE / Ford / GE...

When those two models do come out, pay attention to the decline in the American truck sales (if any) and you will see that the Tesla models are not cannibalizing the American truck sales but a different segment of the market. The complacency lies with you here.


I have discussed with current truck owners and there are also several YouTube videos discussing the cybertruck.

Many are interested in the fuel savings.

I don’t expect truck sales to drop for the others right away. But when their buddies pull up with a cybertruck that doesn’t dent like their “princess wagons”, with better performance and cheaper costs to run, the tide will turn. It will take probably 5 years from now, but it will happen.
 

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