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Interesting Article on Tesla By Germans
- Thread starter user212_nr
- Start date
The biggest criticism I hear about the cyber truck in terms of practicality is the slope on the sides of the bed of the truck, making access from anywhere other than the back practically useless.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I have heard the same thing....until they think about it for a minute longer.
1. Most people should be loading plywood from the rear. People that state they load it from the side, get chastised from others saying it’s much safer to load from the rear.
2. The tool chest that they may be using at the rear can instead have the items placed in the very large frunk.
3. The only thing that some may have a legitimate concern is for people that want to pull a fifth wheel/gooseneck.
4. With anchor points that can be placed anywhere in the bed (like an aircraft), they can put their other items towards the rear of the bed.
5. They can weld any types of racks to it.
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A competitor is a competitor. Competition doesn't need to have a "Tesla-killer" "GM-killer" narrative. The Honda Ridgeline sold 14,000 in 2018, but its a competitor all the same.
What is important here is that they are noticed by the German companies and taken seriously now. The article gives a good "first person view" of what their pain looks like in 2019. It is not an article by some bystander critics, but by the Germans themselves, by someone wholly partial to the German cause.
They are saying "we laughed and now we are crying".
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mspohr
Well-Known Member
Electric Cars Threaten the Heart of Germany’s Economy
Global car sales are declining at the same time that companies are pouring billions of dollars into new technologies like autonomous driving and electric cars, which are easier to assemble and require fewer workers and fewer parts.
The growing popularity of electric vehicles could force a shift in the balance of power in the global car business that would have long-term consequences for Germany.
“There is a transition toward more electric vehicles that have far fewer components and are easier to manufacture,” Bernhard Mattes, the president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, said in an interview in Berlin. “Therefore, we can expect less employment.”
Mr. Mattes, former head of Ford’s operations in Germany, quoted studies estimating that a shift to electric cars could cost 70,000 jobs in Germany by 2030. Some estimates are higher.
But the axle drive also illustrates the danger that electric technology presents to the German auto industry. More than a century of expertise in internal combustion engines and transmissions could become irrelevant. German car companies typically build their own motors, but almost all of Europe’s battery cells, which account for a large share of an electric car’s cost, are imported from Asia.
The risk for the established German carmakers is that they will cling too long to old technologies and be overrun by new companies that focus exclusively on electric vehicles. Those include Tesla, which has announced plans to build a factory in Berlin, and Eurabus, a company in Berlin that makes battery-powered buses.
Global car sales are declining at the same time that companies are pouring billions of dollars into new technologies like autonomous driving and electric cars, which are easier to assemble and require fewer workers and fewer parts.
The growing popularity of electric vehicles could force a shift in the balance of power in the global car business that would have long-term consequences for Germany.
“There is a transition toward more electric vehicles that have far fewer components and are easier to manufacture,” Bernhard Mattes, the president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, said in an interview in Berlin. “Therefore, we can expect less employment.”
Mr. Mattes, former head of Ford’s operations in Germany, quoted studies estimating that a shift to electric cars could cost 70,000 jobs in Germany by 2030. Some estimates are higher.
But the axle drive also illustrates the danger that electric technology presents to the German auto industry. More than a century of expertise in internal combustion engines and transmissions could become irrelevant. German car companies typically build their own motors, but almost all of Europe’s battery cells, which account for a large share of an electric car’s cost, are imported from Asia.
The risk for the established German carmakers is that they will cling too long to old technologies and be overrun by new companies that focus exclusively on electric vehicles. Those include Tesla, which has announced plans to build a factory in Berlin, and Eurabus, a company in Berlin that makes battery-powered buses.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
From your top link
"The company estimated total U.S. sales of light vehicles will come in at 17.3 million for the year" so that is estimated sales for the US not the World and is it for all auto makers or for GM?. I showed market caps so you should be looking at worldwide not US, and we should be sure it's separated by company.
from General Motors - global vehicles sales in 2018 | Statista it looks like half that. So GM sold more like 8 million not 17 million and that quote from the article you cited was confusing.
Infographic: Mega-Merger Creates Fourth Largest Car Maker also puts it around 8.x Million not 17 million.
VW grabs global auto sales crown, but Renault-Nissan Alliance closes the gap (CNBC) and Volkswagen delivered 10.8 million vehicles in 2018, eyes world No.1 spot (reuters) supports that.
Unfortunately all those sources are 2018 numbers and the quote you pulled from was talking 2019. But it's hard to believe that GM suddenly doubled their sales in 2019 vs 2018 when the trend has been down year over year for multiple years now.
if you are saying the comparison is 17m GM to .4m Tesla and the GM number is half as much that's misleading.
I'd like to know the time frame (2019 vs 2018, vs last 4 quarters), area covered (preferably worldwide not US), and know the numbers are accurate. I haven't made an argument other than asking for accurate data.
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You are correct there. 8.4mm vs .4mm (my mistake, just fast go ogling in the phone). My whole point was that your whole argument (you are making an argument both on market cap and share price) are all dependent on Tesla executing very high growth sale numbers. That's all. Wanna use accurate data for 19' first 3 quarters tesla sold what 250k vehicles? GM numbers are from 18'. Once again if I use 18' vs 18' numbers it's 8.4 vs .25 even worse. Point is, price is lofty and for now the market is happy to give them a pass. There is risk in that market cap and share price. The multiples and the forward risk curve are much higher than for a mature, established company like GM. I would be surprised if one or all of the large names don't strike back in some fashion as the technology matures in the electric space.
I should have been more specific that the 17mm was US side only (total vehicles sold), which would probably be a fair comparison for tesla as in 18' tesla did not have much of an export outside of US. So if you want to see where they stand in relation to the US industry it's 0.25 vs 17 but switching it to a large competitor like GM it shows you the the ultimate scale of the competition is huge. Global GM sales of 8.4 of last year will probably compare to Tesla's 400k of this year's estimate. We can split hairs about specific metrics to use but the volume that Tesla puts out there is still nowhere near of the volume that would be considered as chipping away at the big guys.
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brucet999
Active Member
Go to a construction job site some time. Yes, plywood and drywall are loaded/unloaded from the tailgate, but many power tools, air hoses, extension cords, etc., as well as supplies such as cans of paint, boxes of nails, caulk, etc. are placed everywhere in the bed and accessed from the sides multiple times during the day. Having to climb up into the bed from the tailgate in order to access small things would be a major PIA.
That "very large frunk" you cite is nothing compared to the capacity of a pickup bed.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
The technology matured in 2012. Tesla has it. Everyone else is 10 years behind, still in denial and in no position to strike back.
I’m sure many people will throw their hands up in the air and say “it will never work for me” without even trying. While many others will say “I can make it work...especially for those fuel savings and vehicle toughness”.
It’s not going to happen overnight. But it will do quite well.
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